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Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

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Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#361

Post by dragonwriter »

matthewdgreen wrote: post #344
xkjkls wrote: post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't seem hard for other manufacturers to come to an industry standard for car charging, and then have that built out. There's only 119 supercharging stations in the US. For the rest of the automotive industry to match that, especially if they all decide to collaborate, would take less than a year to catch up.

Even if everyone started planning tomorrow, you'd be optimistically looking at a couple of years before this hypothetical new charging network began to be useful. That makes your car useless for a large fraction of its lifespan. Whereas Tesla's charging network exists today. (And I would add that I've heard nothing serious about a plan like this being in the works, so it may in fact be several years away if it ever h…

> Even if everyone started planning tomorrow, you'd be optimistically looking at a couple of years before this hypothetical new charging network began to be useful.

What if they started planning years ago, and also started deployment years ago? Because both CCS and CHAdeMO chargers are deployed (often as multi-standard chargers), with far greater numbers of stations than Tesla has, already.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#362

Post by dragontamer »

vkou wrote: post #255
modzu wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if you're in the market for a new car what makes you think being able to get one immediately is a priority? a car is one of the largest investments an average person will make. i love that i'm not going to be hustled by a car salesman (the archetype of the sleazy conman) and can make decisions independently when buying a tesla. honestly a few months seems really reasonable given the time spent making the decision?

> if you're in the market for a new car what makes you think being able to get one immediately is a priority? Because I'm not buying a car for fun, I'm buying one because my old beater is giving up the ghost. > a car is one of the largest investments an average person will make. A car is not an investment. It's an expense. > i love that i'm not going to be hustled by a car salesman (the archetype of the sleazy conman…

This is a very good point.

Car Salesmen like a fast-and-efficient customer. The faster they deal with you, the faster they can move to a different customer. Come in efficient, and you'll be treated fine.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#363

Post by rohit2412 »

xkjkls wrote: post #337
matthewdgreen wrote: post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another Tesla owner here. For me everything you say sounds convincing until I look at the Supercharging network. From my perspective every single issue you mention is a valid point; it's just that Tesla's nationwide (in North America) supercharging network is worth 5,000 points. When other manufacturers solve this problem (and Tesla hasn't met their quality standards) those manufacturers will be an option.

It doesn't seem hard for other manufacturers to come to an industry standard for car charging, and then have that built out. There's only 119 supercharging stations in the US. For the rest of the automotive industry to match that, especially if they all decide to collaborate, would take less than a year to catch up.

> There's only 119 supercharging stations in the US

That seems too little for 1400 worldwide. This image says 447 in USA. https://www.theatlas.com/charts/BJak7NcSz

Any source for 119?

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#364

Post by rohit2412 »

matthewdgreen wrote: post #344
xkjkls wrote: post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't seem hard for other manufacturers to come to an industry standard for car charging, and then have that built out. There's only 119 supercharging stations in the US. For the rest of the automotive industry to match that, especially if they all decide to collaborate, would take less than a year to catch up.

Even if everyone started planning tomorrow, you'd be optimistically looking at a couple of years before this hypothetical new charging network began to be useful. That makes your car useless for a large fraction of its lifespan. Whereas Tesla's charging network exists today. (And I would add that I've heard nothing serious about a plan like this being in the works, so it may in fact be several years away if it ever h…

https://www.electrifyamerica.com/locate-charger

Some of them are for charging at 350KW, current Tesla Supercharger's top out at 150KW, and the next gen targets 250KW..

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#365

Post by mikeash »

xkjkls wrote: post #354
mikeash wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In sorta-rich places like Washington, DC, they’re all over the place.

Yeah, basically in the places that coastal elites exist.

More expensive cars are purchased by people with more money. Total shocker.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#366

Post by mikeash »

mlthoughts2018 wrote: post #312
mikeash wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of us don’t have the time to perform our own analysis from scratch. So, yes, it matters a great deal.

If you have the time to make ad hoc Hacker News comments in the weeds about the credibility of a link from a comment from a niche post, then you obviously have enough time to evaluate disparate pieces of evidence instead of trying to discredit them by applying blanket heuristic judgements based on seeming one-sidedness from a glance. Nobody is saying you need so much spare time to rigorously analyze every source. Tha…

Who’s trying to discredit them? I just asked if their claims can be believed. I thought “can I trust this random Twitter account” would be a completely standard question, attacked on the basis of “duh, of course you can’t, why would you even ask?” rather than because how dare I impugn the reputation of poor whatshisface instead of spending a couple of hours combing through the evidence for myself.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#367

Post by twblalock »

modzu wrote: post #321
vkou wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if you're in the market for a new car what makes you think being able to get one immediately is a priority? Because I'm not buying a car for fun, I'm buying one because my old beater is giving up the ghost. > a car is one of the largest investments an average person will make. A car is not an investment. It's an expense. > i love that i'm not going to be hustled by a car salesman (the archetype of the sleazy conman…

but this used car experience is not competing against a new tesla sales model..

What vkou did can easily be done with either a used car or a new car -- go to a dealership, see the inventory, test drive the car, buy it and go home with it all in the same day.

In fact, it is easier to do this with new cars because the dealers are more likely to have a car with your preferred combination of option packages in stock.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#368

Post by philwelch »

jtaillon wrote: post #348
philwelch wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla produced 77,000 vehicles in Q1, worldwide. Let's assume they hit their target of 400,000 vehicles in 2019. They would still need to triple production after that point to reach the top 20 of auto manufacturers in 2016 : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor...

And is being the top 20 some sort of required metric for being a "valid" car manufacturer? I'm growing increasingly tired of these arguments that because they're so far behind the "established" players that they'll never be successful or worth supporting. A company can be successful and valuable while not being the absolute leader. It's a bit disingenuous to put them down for not making as many cars as conglomerates…

I'm not putting Tesla down for not making as many cars as century-old conglomerates. They don't even make as many cars as Chinese and Korean manufacturers that were founded in the 1980's. In fact, the century-old conglomerates themselves manufacture fewer cars than Toyota and Volkswagen.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#369

Post by mikeash »

navigatesol wrote: post #313
mikeash wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know if I should believe the analysis. I don’t know if the video being presented is representative or being selectively chosen to tell a story.

> I don’t know if I should believe the analysis. What "analysis" is necessary? There are threads of people going around the country, taking photographs of parking and car lots filled to the brim with Teslas. How do you explain it? The cars are made-to-order, I'm assured. Furthermore, I don't understand "can't believe an account that attacks Tesla". What do you believe is more likely: 1. A random person wakes up one d…

Have you observed the internet at all? If the internet were a country, hating would be the national sport. Does that mean this particular guy must be a hater? No, of course not. But there are tons of them out there. A twitter account is pretty mild compared to, for example, the guy who makes a hobby out of filing safety complaints with the NHTSA about random Tesla crashes he sees online.

I see no possible comparison to Theranos. HN was skeptical from the start and called out the fraud early. Theranos never had a product. Tesla may have its faults, but there’s no question that they’ve built and sold hundreds of thousands of cars.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#370

Post by SEJeff »

philwelch wrote: post #319
SEJeff wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but the article is about a new American car company, and we are discussing problems with production ramp. People often use GM or Ford for comparison, and I'm pointing out the silliness. Most of the EU based car manufacturers are even older than GM / Ford.

By volume, the largest EU car manufacturer is Volkswagen, which barely existed before WWII. The other German manufacturers also had to start from scratch.

Volkswagen was founded May 28, 1937, and they were the fuhrer's favorite. That's still 66 years head start. I bet if I gave you a 66 year head start in virtually anything you could probably do a better job than I will when I start.

You've not disproved the underlying meaning of my statement really. I don't see why people are downvoting it as the content is sensible.

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