NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say • Hacker News Board

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#361

Post by talldan » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 6:07 AM UTC

yholio wrote: post #290

martinald wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? Transport for London is close, if not past, covering operational (and some, but not all, very significant capital) expenditure from fares, property and advertising revenue. MTR in Hong Kong also is profitable, as I believe many Japanese networks are. Being run entirely from fares means you are not at the whim of politicians for subsidies and grants that can change overnight with an election, which makes it very…

I think the conclusion from this sub-thread is that the London subway is insanely expensive compared to most of the rest of the world. There might be local reasons that afford it such price gouging power, like the lack of any reasonable transport alternative and the nature of London's road infrastructure, congestion and parking fees etc. A fee increase to that level in other cities might have the opposite effect of r…

The Underground is cheaper and/or more reliable when compared to the national rail network many use to commute into London. Ridiculously so. I think that contrast helps those in London value the Underground. Also the reason many choose to still live where there's a tube line.

It's also worth noting buses are much cheaper than the tube and quite accessible compared to a lot of places, though much slower.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#362

Post by solidsnack9000 » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 6:20 AM UTC

philwelch wrote: post #339

solidsnack9000 wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The United States had a different path to development than most other developed countries. How different, is a theme developed in an essay by Samuel Huntington from the 1960s: Political Modernization: America vs. Europe . In a nutshell: the US never underwent a period of state centralization, like that associated with the age of absolutism in Europe. This is good in some ways — effective bureaucracies got their start…

That might explain cost disease in the public sector, but I don’t know if it’s sufficient to explain cost disease in housing, higher education, or the privatized parts of the health care industry. Unless you want to punt and blame bad government for all those things, which isn't an indefensible position. For example, in health care, the US is very efficient in fields like LASIK (which isn't covered by most public or…

The US is culturally and constitutionally more robust against tyrannical government, but at the expense of undermining the possibility for effective government.

This doesn't necessarily mean we can't have effective social services, though -- it's just that they would not be government agencies. Planned Parenthood, which often functions in the face of considerable government opposition, is a great example of an effective and dependable public service. So is the National Rifle Association, which is primarily concerned with maintaining ranges and training programs for police and military as well as civilian use. They aren't businesses but they aren't part of the government either.

Huntington discusses the medieval structure as one of a "harmony of government and society". Perhaps in the US we are trying too hard to get our government to do things it was not meant to do. It doesn't mean there is nothing to do.

Found a copy of Huntington's essay online: http://pscourses.ucsd.edu/ps200b/Huntington%20Political%20Mo...

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#363

Post by jorblumesea » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 6:23 AM UTC

InclinedPlane wrote: post #310

weatherlight wrote: post #139

This has little to do with the MTA Union and everything to do with Blasio resisting committing more money to the MTA unless he was guaranteed by Cuomo that the money would go towards the subways and subway throughput, and not other MTA services. Cuomo Controls the MTA; Not the City, or the City Mayor, that's 99% of the problem. Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo’s planned to add amenities like new lighting and USB ports at nearly…

Seattle has kind of a similar problem. They can't just raise local taxes to pay for local transit. So instead the state has to decide on most Seattle transit projects (and their funding), and of course all of the conservatives east of the mountains bridle at the idea of their money being spent on those big city liberals instead of locally even though the balance of tax revenues and spending means money flows the othe…

Seattle has no such issues, as the voters directly voter for initiatives that come directly from property taxes. The governor and Olympia have very little say in what Seattle area builds, which is a good thing.

Contrast that with NY state, where the state legislature and governor can interfere with MTA affairs. Cuomo is a huge part of the problem.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#364

Post by conanbatt » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 6:36 AM UTC

DoubleGlazing wrote: post #151

The problem with urban transport systems is that no one sees them for what they really are... an expensive thing that drives the economy. There seems to be an obsession in the west with making public transport pay for itself, but the reality is that a few billion invested in better public transport results in a lot more billions being made elsewhere. We need to get away from this idea that public transport systems ne…

OTOH, if you let go any rationalization for its cost, then you get 2 billion dollar bills for bus stations that don't work. (SF transit center).

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#365

Post by lifthrasiir » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 6:37 AM UTC

em3rgent0rdr wrote: post #321

rayiner wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody expects the NYC subway to "break even or even turn a profit." The subway historically recovers less than 50% of its operating expenditures from fares, compared to 70% for Berlin, 88% for Amsterdam, and over 100% in Tokyo, Taipei, Hong Kong, and Singapore: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farebox_recovery_ratio . MTA is broke because it costs several times as much for MTA to do anything compared to its counterpart…

Sorting that wikipedia table by recovery ratio, I see most of the profitable ones are in East Asia and distance based: Osaka (OMTB) 137%, Hong Kong MTR 124%, Osaka (Hankyu Railway) 123%, Tokyo Metro 119%, London Underground 107%, Singapore (SMRT) 101%, Taipei Metro 100%. Clearly it is possible to have profitable subways, so I don't think we should drop profitability as a goal.

The statistics are misleading. I can say a bit about Japanese subways; they generally have handful profitable lines (e.g. Midosuji line in Osaka Metro---previously known as OMTB---, or Ginza line in Tokyo Metro) and lots of non-profitable lines. For private subways like Hankyu, the codevelopment of subway lines and neighboring metropolitan area was crucial for their long-lasting profitability (in this sense, Hankyu is not a subway corporation). If we want profitability as a goal, we should just drop those non-profitable lines or subways in general, but of course that would be a public disaster.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#366

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 7:02 AM UTC

TheSoftwareGuy wrote: post #255

dwaltrip wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cars and roads have plenty of problems, sure, but I have no idea what you mean by this "illusion of freedom".

He's likely referring to how (some) people enjoy driving because of the sense of freedom & control it gives them. But he is asserting that this is just an illusion. Honestly, I feel the same way, since most time I spend driving I spend sitting in traffic or something.

[deleted]

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#367

Post by henvic » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 7:15 AM UTC

DoubleGlazing wrote: post #151

The problem with urban transport systems is that no one sees them for what they really are... an expensive thing that drives the economy. There seems to be an obsession in the west with making public transport pay for itself, but the reality is that a few billion invested in better public transport results in a lot more billions being made elsewhere. We need to get away from this idea that public transport systems ne…

Except you are deadly wrong. Your interventionism ideas area probably thanks to a dead economist.

How about seeing that once the Subway was private and ran well and it ended up the way it did thanks to state intervention trying to make the subways out of business and then buying it out?

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#368

Post by briandear » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 7:18 AM UTC

DoubleGlazing wrote: post #151

The problem with urban transport systems is that no one sees them for what they really are... an expensive thing that drives the economy. There seems to be an obsession in the west with making public transport pay for itself, but the reality is that a few billion invested in better public transport results in a lot more billions being made elsewhere. We need to get away from this idea that public transport systems ne…

I agree with you in principle, but in practice, attempting to break even puts some accountability on the system. If it’s a money pit, then taxpayers are getting cheated. I strongly support national defense, but if you want an example of a public good that is a money pit, that’s a good example. A P/L statement on public transport helps prevent endless spending without accountability.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#369

Post by burfog » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 7:20 AM UTC

whack wrote: post #99

This is a really depressing story to read. I've always believed that a good indicator of a country's health, is its ability to tackle complex large-scale projects. Projects that require coordination on multiple fronts: politics, bureaucracy, technical-know-how, civic sacrifice. In the old days when all this infrastructure was built in the first place, we showed our ability to do so. But now, we've gotten to the point…

New York subways were sort of stolen. They were privately built, then the companies were forced into bankruptcy by price caps. The companies were not allowed to raise fares, inflation happened, and thus the government took control.

You own it, you maintain it. Good luck.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#370

Post by briandear » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 7:22 AM UTC

neltnerb wrote: post #283

gameswithgo wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it is my potatoes in the trucks. I can pay the road tax, or more for potato. doesn't matter.

Or the externalities are properly priced and the vast majority of the miles of transport are done by train, which would be cheaper if trucks had to pay for the road maintenance they cause. And cause less pollution (both in ton-miles and from reduced emissions during repaving). And the potatoes end up costing what they cost to get to you? I'm not sure the potato subsidy is worth distorting the transport economics.

Trucks do “pay.” They move goods that are sold and taxed. Until subways start shipping things other than people, they can’t be considered the same as roads. A subway can move people around; roads also move significant goods around. Every single thing in a store has arrived by road for at least some portion of the journey. Farmers aren’t shipping carrots via tram.