BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020 • Hacker News Board

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#361

Post by Fins » Fri, Mar 23, 2018, 11:47 PM UTC

odammit wrote: post #357

Fins wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would be the boat of early adopter people who are willing to pay top dollar for a car that, apart from Superchargers and a large screen is not on par with BMW and the like in things that actually matter to luxury car buyers, like build quality and comfort and handling? Actually, on build quality Tesla doesn't really compete with cars that are half the price. Does not seem to be a huge boat to me. Not that BMW co…

Yeah so to my orginal point - I want a BMW, but I also want a fully electric vehicle. The later is more important to me.

You'd just have to wait then...

Also, BMW and Tesla operate and vastly different scales, and I am not sure there are enough people who consider electric more desirable (or feasible) than "a bimmer".

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#362

Post by tzakrajs » Sat, Mar 24, 2018, 2:47 AM UTC

eip wrote: post #348

tzakrajs wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't rule a hydrogen fuel cell revolution out yet. If humans develop technology that allows hydrogen fuel to be safely generated at the pumping station, then transportation costs for hydrogen fuel would be greatly reduced and thus the efficiency over batteries could be realized. I used this as my source for efficiencies: https://electrek.co/2017/10/26/toyota-elon-musk-fuel-cell-hy...

> If humans develop technology that allows hydrogen fuel to be safely generated at the pumping station The technology to produce hydrogen from water at efficiencies far exceeding Faraday has been known since the 1970s. It was perfected in the 1990s. Toyota has been sitting on it for two decades. That's why they are still leaning towards fuel cells. Permanent batteries were also developed in the 1970s. They are curren…

> The technology to produce hydrogen from water at efficiencies far exceeding

I was talking about safety and locality of generating hydrogen fuel, and I am sure that whatever advance you are talking about from thirty years ago is captured in the numbers I referenced.

> Permanent batteries were also developed in the 1970s. They are currently in use by the military.

Neat, but not relevant to my assertion.

> The problem isn't technology and hasn't been for a long time.

So you are saying that the reason we can't have hydrogen safely generated in pumping stations is because Toyota has some sort of patent or other rights that restrict its use?

> The problem is the international slavery system runs on oil and will for the foreseeable future.

How is Toyota benefiting from oil over hydrogen fuel cell?

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#363

Post by erikpukinskis » Sat, Mar 24, 2018, 7:41 PM UTC

Fins wrote: post #355

erikpukinskis wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Luxury is the wrong word for the segment Tesla is competing in. “Premium” is closer, but still wrong. “High end” feels a lot closer. A kitchen aid mixer isn’t a luxury item, but it has a good profit margin and people who love mixers will buy it. Tesla is more like that... there’s no hand stitched Italian leather or whatever, but the software is top of the line, the drivetrain is top of the line, it has unique feature…

But then it's not even that they are competing in that segment, they are that segment. Outside of people with sufficient disposable income who hate fossil fuels so much they are willing to wait for a full charge (and I've seen some of their supercharger centers; might be better than your average gas station ion a middle of nowhere, but not really a place where I'd want to spend well over an hour for a full charge, wh…

I think all of Tesla's lines have AWD?

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#364

Post by Fins » Sat, Mar 24, 2018, 8:52 PM UTC

erikpukinskis wrote: post #363

Fins wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But then it's not even that they are competing in that segment, they are that segment. Outside of people with sufficient disposable income who hate fossil fuels so much they are willing to wait for a full charge (and I've seen some of their supercharger centers; might be better than your average gas station ion a middle of nowhere, but not really a place where I'd want to spend well over an hour for a full charge, wh…

I think all of Tesla's lines have AWD?

They do, eventually, but as many things with Tesla it is sometimes hard to tell what is actually available (as in you can go and buy it) and what is to be available "real soon now" for several years. It is not cheap, either.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#365

Post by eip » Sat, Mar 24, 2018, 9:01 PM UTC

tzakrajs wrote: post #362

eip wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If humans develop technology that allows hydrogen fuel to be safely generated at the pumping station The technology to produce hydrogen from water at efficiencies far exceeding Faraday has been known since the 1970s. It was perfected in the 1990s. Toyota has been sitting on it for two decades. That's why they are still leaning towards fuel cells. Permanent batteries were also developed in the 1970s. They are curren…

> The technology to produce hydrogen from water at efficiencies far exceeding I was talking about safety and locality of generating hydrogen fuel, and I am sure that whatever advance you are talking about from thirty years ago is captured in the numbers I referenced. > Permanent batteries were also developed in the 1970s. They are currently in use by the military. Neat, but not relevant to my assertion. > The problem…

> I was talking about safety and locality of generating hydrogen fuel

Hydrogen can be produced on demand from water in a vehicle.

> So you are saying that the reason we can't have hydrogen safely generated in pumping stations is because Toyota has some sort of patent or other rights that restrict its use?

No. I am saying that any attempt to sell technology that would allow decentralized energy production is considered a threat to the stability of the international monetary (petro dollar / slavery) system and will be treated accordingly.

> How is Toyota benefiting from oil over hydrogen fuel cell?

They are not. But if they try to sell their water fuel tech their executives will be killed and their factories will be bombed to dust.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#366

Post by greglindahl » Sat, Mar 24, 2018, 10:38 PM UTC

erikpukinskis wrote: post #363

Fins wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But then it's not even that they are competing in that segment, they are that segment. Outside of people with sufficient disposable income who hate fossil fuels so much they are willing to wait for a full charge (and I've seen some of their supercharger centers; might be better than your average gas station ion a middle of nowhere, but not really a place where I'd want to spend well over an hour for a full charge, wh…

I think all of Tesla's lines have AWD?

2 of 3 shipping cars -- while dual-motor Model 3's have been spotted in the wild, you can't order one yet.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#367

Post by dmh2000 » Sun, Mar 25, 2018, 6:12 AM UTC

2020 is almost here. Doesn't seem like a big deal.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#368

Post by Fins » Sun, Mar 25, 2018, 4:37 PM UTC

greglindahl wrote: post #366

erikpukinskis wrote: post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think all of Tesla's lines have AWD?

2 of 3 shipping cars -- while dual-motor Model 3's have been spotted in the wild, you can't order one yet.

Didn't AWD on Model S become widely available only relatively recently? I seem to remember it being an option last time I looked at it.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#369

Post by sunstone » Sun, Mar 25, 2018, 5:27 PM UTC

Ok so that would be a year and three quarters from where we are right now. This time frame is a veritable blink of an eye in the planning horizon of a large automaker. It implies that they have everything pretty much designed and ready to go right now and are just waiting for battery prices to drop.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#370

Post by richardknop » Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 2:27 AM UTC

odammit wrote: post #336

richardknop wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That boat is super niche. Numbers of $100k cars Tesla sells per year is very small and actually is not growing. So that boat is quite small and I don't see the issue for BMW. You have to remember Tesla is losing hundreds of millions of dollars, so clearly that boat is not going to get far until they can start making money. Even Elon Musk won't be able to raise big rounds of new capital indefinitely.

That super niche boat is in a fleet of boats that are killing off old businesses that are lagging behind. Sure BMW may be doing great today, but how long until they’re a Borders. I don’t agree with you, but I did use your golang auth project the other day. Good work! Thanks!

>> That super niche boat is in a fleet of boats that are killing off old businesses that are lagging behind. Sure BMW may be doing great today, but how long until they’re a Borders.

But is it killing businesses? At least from my European perspective I don't see VW, BMW, Daimler losing business to Tesla really, they seem to be doing fine (the only problems they are dealing with are of their own making like the emission scandal). In Asia I also don't see automakers like Toyota losing to Tesla at all. The moment Hong Kong stopped electric car subsidies the number of sold Teslas dropped to 0.

Maybe your American perspective is different? Do you think US car companies like GM, Ford etc are losing badly to Tesla? Is Tesla so popular? I thought owning Tesla was something akin to owning Porsche of Ferrari, it is a status symbol for very small minority of wealthy people. But I don't see Tesla becoming mainstream car for middle classes any time soon.