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Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

economist.com

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Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#361

Post by smallnamespace »

soVeryTired wrote: post #313
smallnamespace wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Higher rates only affects new issuances of bonds, rolling over of existing debt, or bank loans (which are a small fraction of the total debt market in developed economies). The average maturity of a corporate bond is now 15+ years, and most bonds pay a fixed interest rate that doesn't vary due to current rates [1]. That means that any change to rates will not have much of an immediate impact on the interest expense l…

You think rolling over of debt and new issuance is less important than interest income?

No, but the 15+ year plus maturity of existing debt stock means that on average, borrowers won't need to go back to the capital markets any time soon.

Slightly oversimplified way to think about it: every year companies need to refi only 1/T of their debt, where T is the average maturity.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#362

Post by discreteevent »

VLM wrote: post #338
lostlogin wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate the drug testing bs. How is that relevant? If the worker is present, is sober, and not hungover what business is it of the employers what the employee does on their own time? The drugs that are readily detectable are mostly the ones that don’t matter too, while the ones that are more concerning (to me anyway) are either not tested for or are not detectable fairly fast. And alcohol is ok to abuse. Why? It would…

stealth intelligence test. For a variety of interesting historical reasons, the government hates intelligence tests as a hiring criteria and this is the blue collar stealth/workaround IQ test. Its the blue collar equivalent of fizzbuzz or a gitlab repo. Look, you got one task, one task only, it's not even hard to figure out, do not, repeat, do not, get high the week or two before your pee test. That simple. There are…

> who can't follow a test that elaborate and complicated.

There's also the possibility that giving up an addiction is not an intellectual activity (if you think about it a little!)

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#363

Post by shams93 »

ransom1538 wrote: post #108

>> "Anecdotaly, about 20% of new hires under 30 don’t understand the concept of showing up on time (or at all)" Don't kid yourself. Those new hires are at other jobs making more money. I am booked for a roofer in feb 2018 (fingers crossed - friend of a friend). Blue skills are in extremely high demand. And those guys are working extremely hard making really high incomes (400k+). These guys are highly paid and are not…

Wow as an engineer with a master's degree in LA you top out at around 100k which after taxes leaves you with barely enough to make rent. Can't be a housing boom here the locals are being displaced at lightening speed. I have 20 years of experience and a master's degree and I struggle to afford both rent and food but I work 100 hours a week for 40 hours pay to not be laid off. These guys could be making 400k in a union job, and not working that hard for it. We build the future but are allowed a life where we barely hang onto survival in California.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#364

Post by akgerber »

chrisbennet wrote: post #226
moduspol wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there a case at all to be made for personal responsibility when such a large percentage don't even bother to show up? How can one possibly ever get out of poverty if s/he can't even make it to an interview?

They say "There are no bad dogs, just bad owners." I think the problems are cultural. (a) Two working parents or a single parent family may result in children "being raised by wolves" to some extent. These are good parents/people but child rearing is a time intensive business. (b) Lack of jobs for young people. In my neighborhood, a lot of lawn mowing jobs are done by services instead of the neighborhood kid. The "en…

Kids don't walk to school in many modern neighborhoods because they're not designed to be safe for walking, sliced through by wide high-speed arterials that encourage driving at dangerous speeds. I grew up in a 1900-1920s neighborhood and most kids walked to school.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#365

Post by danielvf »

niftich wrote: post #311
technofire wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the prosperous part of the Southeast For those of us who are unfamiliar or ignorant about this, which parts of the Southeast are most prosperous?

Let's define Southeast as below the 36°30' and east of the Mississippi (i.e. we're definitely excluding VA, DC, WV, KY, and anything west of the Mississippi including Louisiana). Those actively gaining on rankings of 'prosperity' include Nashville, Charlotte, Charleston SC, and Raleigh-Durham [1]. Atlanta has a good amount of preexisting prosperity, though it's not ranking as high now. Greenville has seem a fair bit…

You got it. The companies I was talking about are covered in the cities you listed.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#366

Post by deadmetheny »

jondubois wrote: post #269
opportune wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I always read these ridiculously high salaries and laugh. Your average HVAC worker is not making $400k. I do know people in construction/HVAC/plumbers/electricians and it's the bosses making that money, not the grunt workers. The people on the front lines still make good money, for some easily approaching $100k/year, so there's not really a need for embellishment. That isn't to say that it's unattainable, but it's ak…

$400k is what senior executives of major multinational companies get paid. It's also what top surgeons get paid. I highly doubt that blue collar workers get anywhere near that much. If they did, everyone would try to work in that industry because the barrier to entry is comparatively very low.

They absolutely do, but not at entry level. They're the ones who have been doing it for ages, break off to start their own business doing it, and hire people to work for them, and the cycle begins anew. Nobody's doing it because the last 20 years kids have been told that college is the One True Path to being successful and that the trades are for people who can't hack it there. It's hard work and long hours before you really start to get crazy high earnings, but you get there.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#367

Post by pkaye »

ramses0 wrote: post #312
southphillyman wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where can one go to learn these "blue collar" skills? As a recent home owner I'm learning first hand how valuable these skills are by way of my wallet. Seems like most people I meet who do these kinds of jobs were "born into it", and learned by helping a family member who was already in the industry. Are there IIT type schools which teach these kinds of things on a part time basis?

Never do anything by yourself which requires a permit (HVAC, Plumbing/Gas, Electrical), unless w.r.t. electrical it's low voltage boxes covered by standard switchplates with the breaker box off. Never do anything structural/load-bearing. Avoid touching window-headers/columns, door-headers/columns, that random beam in the middle of your living room, that random pillar that you wish you know what was for, and that real…

You can do simple plumbing and electrical stuff yourself. Just shut off the main valve or circuit breaker, change out the fixture (light switch, outlet, lamp, faucet, etc) and turn things back on. As long as you are careful to put wires back in same place it should be fine. And there are plenty of videos on Youtube to guide you.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#368

Post by potta_coffee »

expertentipp wrote: post #212
jetrink wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This reminds me of the observation[1] that most applicants for programming positions can't implement FizzBuzz. This has led some to conclude that the majority of programmers would be stumped by the task, but it is more likely that such programmers are overrepresented in the applicant pool. 1. http://wiki.c2.com/?FizzBuzzTest

So we have filtered 0.5% "elite" passing FizzBuzz, what shall we do now? Those need CV crafted in LaTeX, maintain public repositories, have fluency in latest frameworks and APIs, demand moderate salary... wait... nobody's left. SHORTAGE! Teach EVERYONE programming!

So true. So frustrating.

I'm not a top-shelf engineer, but I'm perfectly capable of working on a team and producing good work. Finding jobs is an extremely difficult process.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#369

Post by turc1656 »

crankylinuxuser wrote: post #309
turc1656 wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure how someone can just graduate and yet have meaningful experience in the field. Seems like only a very, very select few people can every really say that. Also, it's not clear if you and your father have degrees in the same field. If you do, part of it could easily be a supply/demand issue. I've heard similar stories from lawyers who enter the field and find it very difficult to get anything above 50k for…

"Work Ethic". I work because this society threatens us with destitution if we do not. I have plenty of ideas, things to do. I have to put them aside for much of each week because I want to survive.

And? That's true of a lot of people, including myself. Do you think that's a new thing? As if not being a productive member of society leading to poverty is this evil new capitalistic creation? Or that pursuing your own ideas should not include the risk it does? It's amazing to me that you choose to work for someone for an agreed upon salary, providing stability and security to you, and then have an issue with the concept of work ethic because if you don't work for them or someone else you will be poor.

I work on side projects as I can. I don't quit my job because I don't know if I can survive as easily with my other ideas. It's a risky proposition. I choose less risk. You do the same, but seem upset at that concept.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#370

Post by killjoywashere »

throwawayjava wrote: post #109
killjoywashere wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Past performance != future performance But it's the best signal we've got. Ignore it at your peril. Perhaps you are too young or live in too modern a world to understand how dangerous rare events are. Constructive paranoia has helped select evolutionary survivors for a very long time. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/29/science/jared-diamonds-gui...

> But it's the best signal we've got Except that's not true. We can actually test for sobriety. And by doing drug testing instead, we're actually using a worse signal in place of a better signal! See e.g., http://www.predictivesafety.com/news/2017/2/6/the-advantages... > Perhaps you are too young or live in too modern a world to understand how dangerous rare events are. Constructive paranoia has helped select evoluti…

If I have to test people for sobriety every day before a shift, I don't need to employ them.
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