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How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

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Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#361

Post by dragonwriter »

Arizhel wrote: post #360
rsfern wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Congress, hopefully. Call your senators and representatives! There's a Senate bill that needs support. https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/248

Oh please. Congress has been stuffed with GOP people who are in league with him. The only time they complain is when he does something that isn't conservative enough for them, like when he issued a statement that his administration would uphold the LGBT anti-discrimination order from Obama, and a few GOP congressmen complained how this infringes "religious freedom". The only people in Congress who'll oppose him are (…

> The only time they complain is when he does something that isn't conservative enough for them

That's not entirely fair. Several Republicans have objected to things he's done on other bases, including the immigration E.O.

The partisan duopoly created by the structure of the electoral system creates an illusion of a simple unidimensional political divide, and partisan tribalism is high, but, still, even conservatives in Congress sometimes have more nuanced policy views than "is it conservative enough?"

Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#362

Post by Arizhel »

comments_db wrote: post #346

Dear policy makers and sections of HN, please maintain this unfavorable attitude towards immigrant tech workers for at least 4-8 years. Once this (unpleasant) feeling gets under our skin we will start departing in hordes and take that American Dream appeal with us. (Probably a very bad analogy) a product is only as good as its fan base. We are fan of American Dream that's why we are okay with lining outside in the ra…

>we will start departing in hordes and take that American Dream appeal with us.

And where will you go? I can't think of very many nations which are remotely competitive with the US as a place for tech work. Either their infrastructure is terrible, the culture and government too corrupt, their government too oppressive, the quality of life and standard of living too poor, the ability to immigrate too difficult, or the cost of doing business too high. Various places have tried copying Silicon Valley for quite a while now, without that much success.

You could try going to China, but good luck learning Mandarin and have fun putting up with massive pollution and the Great Firewall that hampers any kind of IT work. You could go to Switzerland, but good luck affording it, plus the place is just too small anyway (the country's whole population is less than just the Bay Area). You could go to El Salvador but have fun dealing with gang crime and the world's highest murder rate. The only place I can think of that might actually become serious competition is Canada.

Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#363

Post by dukeluke »

Arizhel wrote: post #359
testUser69 wrote: post #88

Americas "tech dominance" threatens the breadbasket. The coastal areas, mostly certain cities, have become "international" and any worker from a rural area who wants to earn a living wage doing a technical job (e.g. STEM) now not only has to compete with other Americans, but everyone in the world. What exactly do the elites expect people in the breadbasket to do? If America is an international country then we're goin…

>What I think would really help America (and the world by proxy) is if for every immigrant a tech company imports, they must hire two rural American workers from a community that's average income is less than the national median. There's a big problem with this idea: you seem to be assuming that rural Americans want to live in the international coastal cities. I'm quite sure this simply isn't the case for most of the…

It's a bit presumptuous that everyone living in rural areas is unskilled. I've got nearly two years in the tech industry, hold several certifications, and almost have a BS completed. But because I live in a rural area & all the tech jobs are becoming more and more centralized, it's nearly impossible for me to find work. I don't want to move because my wife is in school and my family also lives in the middle of nowhere. I'm willing to bet there are many people like me.

Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#364

Post by Arizhel »

diego_moita wrote: post #90

Wherever there are big risks there are also great opportunities. As a Canadian, I wonder how/if Canada can benefit from Trump's lack of vision. We already have the same time zone, language, almost same culture, similar economic regulations, tight economic integration with the US, a very skilled and educated workforce, some good centers of technological excellence and an immigration policy regarded as the best in the…

How exactly are they supposed to afford to live there? A ramshackle crack house in Vancouver costs $1M+. Silicon Valley is dirt cheap by comparison. Toronto is also quite expensive these days.

Also, Canada does not have the same language if you're talking about Quebec (which you mentioned).

The only way Canada makes any sense is if somehow Calgary and/or Edmonton suddenly become fast-growing tech hubs. But have fun with the cold. Most tech immigrants are not going to be too enthusiastic about that, considering most of them come from very warm parts of the world like India.

Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#365

Post by Arizhel »

dragonwriter wrote: post #361
Arizhel wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh please. Congress has been stuffed with GOP people who are in league with him. The only time they complain is when he does something that isn't conservative enough for them, like when he issued a statement that his administration would uphold the LGBT anti-discrimination order from Obama, and a few GOP congressmen complained how this infringes "religious freedom". The only people in Congress who'll oppose him are (…

> The only time they complain is when he does something that isn't conservative enough for them That's not entirely fair. Several Republicans have objected to things he's done on other bases, including the immigration E.O. The partisan duopoly created by the structure of the electoral system creates an illusion of a simple unidimensional political divide, and partisan tribalism is high, but, still, even conservatives…

>That's not entirely fair. Several Republicans have objected to things he's done on other bases, including the immigration E.O.

Ok, to be fair, out of several hundred Republicans, you're going to find a few here and there who object to many things he does (and the ones who object will be different, based on the issue). Similarly on the Democrat side, you're going to find a few here and there who break ranks with the rest of the Dems and side with him.

But by and large, you're not going to see any unified opposition from the GOP. You might from the Dems, but that doesn't matter much because they're a minority in Congress.

Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#366

Post by Retric »

prodmerc wrote: post #313
Retric wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, in the same way as there is no shortage of Bugatti Veyron for 100k. They simply cost more than that. We live in a capitalist society where price is how you communicate demand. Now, if you are willing to pay X times median wage in the US and still can't find people then perhaps there is an argument. But, saying you can't find people when you are not willing to go that far suggests you are not willing to pay marke…

> suggests you are not willing to pay market wages. Uh, or you know, you can't afford it?

That's not exclusive. I am not willing to pay for a penthouse in Manhattan, because I can't afford it. I am also not willing to pay for a live in chef, and 10,009 other things because I can't afford them. That is not a failing of society it's how capitalism allocates finite resources.

Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#367

Post by Arizhel »

dukeluke wrote: post #363
Arizhel wrote: post #359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What I think would really help America (and the world by proxy) is if for every immigrant a tech company imports, they must hire two rural American workers from a community that's average income is less than the national median. There's a big problem with this idea: you seem to be assuming that rural Americans want to live in the international coastal cities. I'm quite sure this simply isn't the case for most of the…

It's a bit presumptuous that everyone living in rural areas is unskilled. I've got nearly two years in the tech industry, hold several certifications, and almost have a BS completed. But because I live in a rural area & all the tech jobs are becoming more and more centralized, it's nearly impossible for me to find work. I don't want to move because my wife is in school and my family also lives in the middle of nowher…

Ok, then how exactly do you propose tech companies hire you when you absolutely refuse to leave this rural area? You think they're going to set up a satellite office just so they can hire one or two people out in SmallTown?

Of course you can't find work, if you choose to live in the middle of nowhere. It doesn't make sense to locate companies in places with very few qualified workers. If it did, companies would be locating in places like that all the time because the cost of living is so much lower, and they can pay a lot less. But they don't, they locate in high-CoL areas.

Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#368

Post by dragonwriter »

Arizhel wrote: post #365
dragonwriter wrote: post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only time they complain is when he does something that isn't conservative enough for them That's not entirely fair. Several Republicans have objected to things he's done on other bases, including the immigration E.O. The partisan duopoly created by the structure of the electoral system creates an illusion of a simple unidimensional political divide, and partisan tribalism is high, but, still, even conservatives…

>That's not entirely fair. Several Republicans have objected to things he's done on other bases, including the immigration E.O. Ok, to be fair, out of several hundred Republicans, you're going to find a few here and there who object to many things he does (and the ones who object will be different, based on the issue). Similarly on the Democrat side, you're going to find a few here and there who break ranks with the…

Unified opposition from Dems + some opposition from the GOP can be enough to constitute a majority, though. (It's why the DeVos nomination is on the edge of failing right now.)

Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#369

Post by Arizhel »

dragonwriter wrote: post #368
Arizhel wrote: post #365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>That's not entirely fair. Several Republicans have objected to things he's done on other bases, including the immigration E.O. Ok, to be fair, out of several hundred Republicans, you're going to find a few here and there who object to many things he does (and the ones who object will be different, based on the issue). Similarly on the Democrat side, you're going to find a few here and there who break ranks with the…

Unified opposition from Dems + some opposition from the GOP can be enough to constitute a majority, though. (It's why the DeVos nomination is on the edge of failing right now.)

Yes, I'll admit that in some extreme cases like that, Congress might be able to push back against Trump. But it has to be pretty ridiculous it seems (DeVos is an especially horrible pick).

Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#370

Post by Retric »

johncolanduoni wrote: post #345
Retric wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, in the same way as there is no shortage of Bugatti Veyron for 100k. They simply cost more than that. We live in a capitalist society where price is how you communicate demand. Now, if you are willing to pay X times median wage in the US and still can't find people then perhaps there is an argument. But, saying you can't find people when you are not willing to go that far suggests you are not willing to pay marke…

Okay, but then why do you refuse to accept multiplying X by the actual market wage for the job instead of picking a fixed number (in which I see no X)?

Because supply is influenced by price.

The supply of gold is huge if I am willing to pay above market rates. If I want a conductive metal I am going to chose something other than gold in the vast majority of cases because of price. In the case of gold the price is based on both demand and resource extraction costs.

Moving to the workforce, students pick jobs in part because of what they will pay. Over time this feedback loop combines with demand and other factors to set a clearing price for the industry. If a job pays less than 100k that's a very big sign that people are choosing to do something else because of pay not the jobs inherent difficulties.

Now what happens if you try and subsidize an industry with H1B's. Let's say you add 50% as many H1B as people working in the field for a huge effect. Well in the short term wages fall and people either find something else, but more importantly students study something else. Fast forward 20 years, the market price is a little lower but not by that much even though lots of H1B's are now doing that job' you still need to entice a lot of US workers. Meanwhile close to 1:1 with those H1B's, US students have moved into other fields.

Thus, unless you are going to have most people in an industry be H1B's trying to help out an industry shortfall with some H1B quota is not that useful and simply subsidizes an industry for minimal benefit.

PS: Even defining things based on job is tricky. I need a Doctor what's the price for that, type: surgeon, type of surgeon: cosmetic. Now a hospital that can fill out generalist one level up can get a discount. Even industry gets tricky as a school may need a doctor for example.

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