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OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

wsj.com

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Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#351

Post by 1vuio0pswjnm7 »

1vuio0pswjnm7 wrote: post #311

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"Anyone else having issues accessing www.msn.com on their iPad? Keep getting a blog error. Wondering if it's just my iPad or a larger issue. I don't have an issue accessing the site from my laptop though."

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https://old.reddit.com/r/ipad/comments/12j907w/anyone_else_h...

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#352

Post by marcosdumay »

disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #51
CodingJeebus wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we're a lot closer to the peak than when Netscape IPO'd relative to the dotcom bust for a few reasons: * big banks are trying to get out of their data center loan commitments, even selling that debt at a discount. From the article: > According to the Financial Times, major lenders are already scrambling to offload pieces of massive data center loans through private transactions, risk transfers and synthetic s…

> * big banks are trying to get out of their data center loan commitments, even selling that debt at a discount. From the article: This isn't necessarily a sign that they don't believe in the data centre loans, it's more than banks are basically required to avoid concentrated risk, because of the regulations we (mostly correctly) imposed upon them post GFC. Now, personally I'm not convinced there's enough demand for…

There seems to be not enough of anything.

Apparently, there's not enough demand for the datacenters already operating, there's not enough energy to power all the computers the datacenter companies already brought, there's not enough people to build the datacenters already planned...

It's not clear if there's enough money available to go for those giant IPOs, and it's not clear if there's enough GDP available to cover for all the investment contracts out there. But inflation and deregulation can solve those ones.

All of that would make sense iff those companies did get something close to AGI. But they haven't, what they have is their bullshit machines and a bamboozled public repeating their lines.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#353

Post by dirasieb »

ReptileMan wrote: post #314
wg0 wrote: post #99

If you're an investor you should try Deepseekv4 before you put your hard earned money in this gambling spree. Context - Deepseekv4 is freely available to download you can host your own and sell it keeping the proceeds and it rivals Claude Opus 4.7. "Thank you for your attention to this matter"

It is worse than GPT5.5 ... but is so cheap that it doesn't really matter.

cheap for whom? local hardware + electricity bills don’t even begin to get close to frontier model subscription even in price

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#355

Post by psvv »

zozbot234 wrote: post #349
psvv wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's true for the S&P but not nasdaq, nasdaq is market cap weighted. There used to be a limit that the available float couldn't go below something like 20%. (This is because 5% float available but 100% market cap would cause a huge supply/demand mismatch). But for spacex they changed the rule so there's no minimum, it's just that below 20% float, companies would be weighted at 5x the float instead of 100% of market…

> it's possible that frees up more than 20% of float and it suddenly has to be weighted at the full 100% of market cap In your scenario, that 100% cap would by definition be less than 5x float so it shouldn't trigger any more buying than the lock-up expiration itself did.

Not sure what you mean, can you help me understand?

Do you mean if free float goes from 5% to 100%, and weighting goes from 25% to 100%, it's more "extra supply" than "extra demand"? That's a good point I hadn't considered. I'm not sure the details of the lock-up period though, it might be staggered. So if it goes from 5% float to 50% float, that's 45% of additional shares available to buy, but an addition 75% of the market cap that indices now need to weight to. But it's true this would only happen once (when free float goes from below 20% to above). Then after that the extra supply would be more than the extra demand. Or do I misunderstand?

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#356

Post by Danox »

disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #280
subarctic wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wasn't there a Chinese ai startup that got bought recently but the government wouldn't let the founders leave china? I think stuff like that would have an effect on valuation

Yeah, Manus were supposed to be acquired by FB, but the Chinese government nixed it.

long-term a very smart move to block it.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#358

Post by zozbot234 »

psvv wrote: post #355
zozbot234 wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's possible that frees up more than 20% of float and it suddenly has to be weighted at the full 100% of market cap In your scenario, that 100% cap would by definition be less than 5x float so it shouldn't trigger any more buying than the lock-up expiration itself did.

Not sure what you mean, can you help me understand? Do you mean if free float goes from 5% to 100%, and weighting goes from 25% to 100%, it's more "extra supply" than "extra demand"? That's a good point I hadn't considered. I'm not sure the details of the lock-up period though, it might be staggered. So if it goes from 5% float to 50% float, that's 45% of additional shares available to buy, but an addition 75% of the…

If free float is 19%, the firm is being weighted at 95% of its market cap, which is 5x the float. If free float is 21%, the firm is weighted at 100%, which is less than 5x the float (that would be 105%). The transition from "5x the float" to "market cap" doesn't increase the weighting any more than the change in float would.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#359

Post by Danox »

ericmay wrote: post #50
hypeatei wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So I take it you're going to buy shares of OpenAI on opening day then? ;) Institutions merely owning a newly-IPO'd stock means nothing. They get access to shares at a reasonable price before opening while retail is buying at insane prices after open. See Figma as an example where institutional investors got it at $33/share and it ended the IPO day at $115/share with retail buying all the way up (including pops above…

> So I take it you're going to buy shares of OpenAI on opening day then? ;) Probably not. Do you understand however that your comment does not make sense in the context of my comment? > Institutions merely owning a newly-IPO'd stock means nothing. They get access to shares at a reasonable price before opening while retail is buying at insane prices after open. See Figma as an example where institutional investors got…

Insiders get the best price before retail. What is there not to understand?

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#360

Post by ololobus »

Just speculating and thinking out loud. I think this might be a good news for AI-skeptics. Going with IPO means that investors finally want to get some cash that they cannot get by any other means. There are good examples of private market companies staying like that for many years because they are profitable, they have plenty of cash, and they have a queue of investors eager to put more cash

So what does it mean in this particular case? The board and investors probably don’t see it being realistic to become profitable soon, and maybe even worry about AI ceiling, so they want to profit now

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