Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

bbc.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

351–360 of 486 posts

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#351

Post by irishcoffee »

slashdev wrote: post #235
khriss wrote: post #32

I can't think of a single way in which the United States came out ahead in the war. We have * Demonstrated that the US simply can't offer any meaningful security guarantee to it's middle east partners. * Permanently ceded de facto control over the straits of Hormuz to Iran * Significantly strengthened the hardliners in the Iranian regime and cleared the way for them to have absolute power by eliminating all moderates…

It's not over yet, but the status quo is certainly a loss for the US. Which to me indicates Trump won't stop here, he needs something he can at least spin as a win. I think Trump is about to lose patience with Iran again and we're in for a second phase of this war. What that looks like afterwards is anyone's guess. I'm not very optimistic. It's not impossible that if the IRGC can't make payroll that things start to c…

> I think Trump is about to lose patience with Iran again and we're in for a second phase of this war. What that looks like afterwards is anyone's guess. I'm not very optimistic.

I think we'll have that answer shortly after trump and xi have their little meeting, but I agree with you.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#352

Post by ch_sm »

pibaker wrote: post #336
lovich wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The majority of demand for fossil fuels is for energy. Switching to alternative sources for energy is not “demand destruction” unless you zoom in your analysis so much that you’re missing the forest for the trees.

You cannot just switch an entire country's energy source on a finger snap nor do we have a viable alternative for making nitrogen based fertilizer. East Asia, which is heavily dependent on Middle East gas, is already bracing for energy shortages. What is likely to happen next is a fertilizer shortage in some poorer countries which will then lead to food shortages and social unrest.

> You cannot just switch an entire country's energy source on a finger snap

no one is suggesting that

> nor do we have a viable alternative for making nitrogen based fertilizer

nor is anyone suggesting that

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#353

Post by AnimalMuppet »

giantg2 wrote: post #165
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're misinterpreting that. Everything other than food and fuel went up 2.8%. Everything (including food and fuel) went up 3.8%. Therefore food and fuel went up more than 3.8%.

I think you're misinterpreting me. The overall inflation increase attributed to food and fuel increases is 1%.

I still don't think that's right.

You have food and fuel, which is some fraction of the economy - call that F. You have a rate of inflation in fuel and food - call that f. And you have a rate of inflation in everything else - call that e. Then you have

  3.8 = e(1-F) + fF.
You also have e = 2.8.

I think what you're claiming is that fF = 1.0, so that e(1-F) = 2.8. And I think that's wrong. When they say inflation apart from food and fuel is 2.8, they mean e, not e(1-F).

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#354

Post by programjames »

mint5 wrote: post #323
programjames wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would you think returning to Obama's Iran deal would be a win? Actually, let me word this better: how could you possibly think that anyone in the White House for the past decade would think returning to Obama's Iran deal is better than this war? The reason it's so incredible you could think such a thing is the White House has been saying how horrible that deal was in every interview for months, and of course inte…

I don’t think it’s a win, I said that in the context of the comment above. Note the question mark

> Long comment before yours

"So a win will be returning to Obama’s Iran deal?"

Where in that long comment before yours did you see an implication that anyone was thinking a return to Obama's Iran deal was a win? Why did you use the word "so"?

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#355

Post by bix6 »

WarmWash wrote: post #254
bix6 wrote: post #109

What I don’t understand is how the stock market can be so decoupled from reality. It’s a game at this point and completely disconnected from reality. Everything should be down 20%+ given oil is an input to everything and yet stocks are ATHing.

Lesson from 2021: Stocks (naturally) price in inflation before inflation becomes headlines everywhere. People uncertain about the dollar trying to shelter their wealth from inflation will move to stocks to shield themselves.

Ok and a war that affects all inputs only tanks the market for a few weeks before ripping to an ATH? What’s the pricing on that?

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#356

Post by bombcar »

rcoder wrote: post #212
bombcar wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The average family spends something like $5,000 on gas a year, maybe $10k. Gas could double and it’d be felt, but it’s still just a portion of total spend. We’ve had $4 gas before (20 years ago?!) and it was annoying but it didn’t end the world.

The perspective from over here in HN land is very skewed. According to the US Census, median household income in 2024 was $80,000. Add federal and state income tax* of 30%, and you're left with $56,000. Rent in lower-cost areas is around $12,000 ($1k/mo.) and health insurance (assuming ACA, not fancy private plans) is another $7000. Utility prices vary wildly but average something like $450-500 (so $6000 per year). i…

Speaking of HN-land assumptions lol - if you think a median family making $80k is paying $30k in taxes you got another think on backorder.

In fact, at $80k in some areas you'll qualify for medicaid for the family (or at least the kids) - up to $108k in CA for example: https://www.coveredca.com/pdfs/FPL-chart.pdf

The clanker says that "median family with kids" makes $105k and pays total tax (including property, sales, income, etc, etc) of about $23k.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#357

Post by lovich »

pibaker wrote: post #336
lovich wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The majority of demand for fossil fuels is for energy. Switching to alternative sources for energy is not “demand destruction” unless you zoom in your analysis so much that you’re missing the forest for the trees.

You cannot just switch an entire country's energy source on a finger snap nor do we have a viable alternative for making nitrogen based fertilizer. East Asia, which is heavily dependent on Middle East gas, is already bracing for energy shortages. What is likely to happen next is a fertilizer shortage in some poorer countries which will then lead to food shortages and social unrest.

The switch to renewables isn’t expected to happen on a finger snap.

And if we no longer need the majority of fossil fuels for oil, we will have more of our own ample local fossil fuels to allocate to production of things that still require them like your afore mentioned fertilizer or lubricants.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#358

Post by irishcoffee »

runako wrote: post #138
dwa3592 wrote: post #17

I understand it is a complicated calculation but to me personally, inflation feels much more than that. I have been tracking the price of milk. Around 3 months ago, i was getting a gallon of milk at $2.97, then it went up to 3.07, then 3.25. Yesterday I paid 3.40. That's like 15% gain on something as basic as milk. All numbers from the same store.

One thing I have noted during this inflationary period is that individual stores/chains are gaming pricing much more than I remember before. For example, your store might be competing for business using the headline price of eggs and making it up on milk and bread. In our city, Whole Foods was the cheapest non-warehouse place to buy eggs for a while. Anecdotally, it looks like one could save a relatively large % on v…

The problem with shopping at 5 stores to save money on groceries is that with gas prices you're probably not saving money, and if you're not moving around to various stores using any type of energy but kinetic, it is a large opportunity cost that could be spent doing other things, if you even have the time at all.

There is no way I could go shop at 5, or even 3 stores a week for food, I simply do not have the time. (Spouse and I both work full-time, 3 kids at 3 different ages going to 3 different schools every day, etc)

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#359

Post by expedition32 »

delfinom wrote: post #53
khriss wrote: post #32

I can't think of a single way in which the United States came out ahead in the war. We have * Demonstrated that the US simply can't offer any meaningful security guarantee to it's middle east partners. * Permanently ceded de facto control over the straits of Hormuz to Iran * Significantly strengthened the hardliners in the Iranian regime and cleared the way for them to have absolute power by eliminating all moderates…

>I shudder to think just how badly we will be outmatched in a shooting war with China. A study a few years ago gave the US just 1 week before all its missiles were depleted with China in just a naval war.

If the war is about Taiwan there are problems. Who in America wants to die for Taiwan? Let's be honest there would also be a racial component in it. Berliners were at least white and Christian.

CCP on the other hand can play the nationalist card.

Ofcourse it is my genuine belief that war between the US and China would be amazingly stupid and a waste of human life.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#360

Post by keernan »

rdudek wrote: post #2

The tidbid they're not talking about are the fact that wages are down .5% https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/cpi-inflation-april-2026-.ht...

"With productivity rising at a brisk pace, the share of national income that goes to workers has sunk to its lowest point on record"

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/business/economy/cpi-infl...

Post reply on HN