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UAE to leave OPEC

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Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#351

Post by IAmBroom »

dlubarov wrote: post #334
cma wrote: post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they join a religion that isn't on the state approved list, they can't get married there and hard or extra expensive to get buried. There are some limits on religious freedom.

They can just get married abroad. There are even online ceremonies now. A decent number of Israeli Jews have to do that as well, since Israel recognizes Jewish marriages only under orthodox rabbis. Some Israeli Jews are not even considered Jews under strict orthodox rules.

So, not a religiously free state, as OP said.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#352

Post by thinkcontext »

Pay08 wrote: post #294
Havoc wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think the gulf is in same as always mode right now

They kind of are. Iran has been attacking everyone in the Middle East for decades, occasionally seizing or destroying ships in Hormuz, and funding internal dissent. Things are worse right now, but not that much worse, and the short-term pain might very well be worth it for the long-term reduction in Iran's capabilities.

Uh, from the UAE's perspective it is much worse. They sold many $Bs worth of oil and had become a global tourist hub, now they can't do those things. They are being patient for the time being but there's a limit. We don't know what that limit is but if 6 months go by and the Strait's not open can we really expect them to not pay Iran a toll and price their oil in yuan?

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#353

Post by Ar-Curunir »

Pay08 wrote: post #294
Havoc wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think the gulf is in same as always mode right now

They kind of are. Iran has been attacking everyone in the Middle East for decades, occasionally seizing or destroying ships in Hormuz, and funding internal dissent. Things are worse right now, but not that much worse, and the short-term pain might very well be worth it for the long-term reduction in Iran's capabilities.

What are you talking about? This level of escalation hasn’t happened for at least a quarter century. I know, because I’ve lived in the gulf for large parts of that period

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#354

Post by IAmBroom »

lesuorac wrote: post #47
coffeebeqn wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It also looks fairly easy to mine/blockade outside of their territorial waters. You don’t need that many drones to make the whole area unusable for marine transport. The strait is the clearest choke point but I don’t know how much bypassing it would help UAE

You don't even need to hit that many ships either. Despite there being way less than 1 successful attack per week [1] travel through the Red Sea is down from ~500/week to ~200/week [2]. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_attacks_on_commercial_v... [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis#Houthi_attacks_...

Passing the strait is effectively playing Russian Roulette, where Iranian missiles are the bullets.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#355

Post by burner35534 »

bluGill wrote: post #177

OPEC has long been Saudi Arabia reducing output, and everyone else selling everything they can. They haven't had much power since the 1970s, but that they exist means they are a threat that if everyone else actually stuck to the agreement for a change. This is the common problem for cartels: everyone has inventive to cheat on the deals made. By selling a little more than your share you get more money, while because e…

Repeated PD is very different. The whole point of a cartel is that everyone inside is incentivized not to cheat, and it works as long as they agree on what's fair. The problem for cartels is people not in the cartel.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#356

Post by hackeraccount »

dgb23 wrote: post #273
boringg wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Best of luck! These proxy wars have existed since the days of Assyria. 3000 years and running. Kind of depressing thought actually.

I tried to make sense of middle eastern politics once. My conclusion has been „It’s complicated.“

I'd go to you for information before I'd go to the people who say, "It's really all pretty simple..."

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#357

Post by linkregister »

bee_rider wrote: post #267
nradov wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CAFE standards were always a stupid idea. If we want to reduce fuel usage then increase the tax on fuel instead of punishing manufacturers for selling vehicles that consumers want to buy.

What if consumers want to buy Chinese electric cars? Are we going to remove that bit of protectionism?

Great catch!

There's a trend toward advantaging entrenched interests to the detriment of the overall economy and interests of the population.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#358

Post by IAmBroom »

nradov wrote: post #56
alistairSH wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The basics are the same as any other cartel. OPEC states cover enough of the supply-side of the market to be able to keep prices artificially high. UAE leaving means UAE can price below OPEC's target and take more of the market. OPEC will have to react and lower prices or concede some of the market. Does any of this matter if the major players can't ship oil through Hormuz? Who knows...

OPEC was never a very effective cartel in the first place. Many of the members routinely exceeded production targets. And for geological reasons it's not like most oil wells can even be throttled down.

Storage facilities allow for market supply control.

And while it's true many member exceed targets, it's like speeding on US highways: everyone does it, but anyone driving 20 mph faster than the pack is nobody's friend. Karma will happen.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#359

Post by [deleted] »

dmix wrote: post #235
Cyph0n wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. The UAE’s major issue is that KSA has finally awoken from its deep nonsensical slumber (I can elaborate further if there is interest). This is a battle of economies and regional influence.

MBZ is definitely more anti-islamism than the saudis. UAE really doesn't like muslim brotherhood while Saudis have supported groups aligned with them in Yemen plus Saudis are getting closer to Turkey/Qatar. Even UAE/saudi backing different groups in Sudan war is rooted in Yemen/brotherhood issue. Both Sudanese groups sent competing troops to fight in Yemen. > While Saudi Arabia does not have any problems with Islamis…

[deleted]

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#360

Post by eightysixfour »

fakedang wrote: post #346
eightysixfour wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think there is any evidence that they actually need the dollar swap line - the dirham-dollar peg isn't at any risk and they have plenty of money for fiscal flexibility going into the foreseeable future. If you take financial reasons off of the table then it is clear it is just a political play for a bigger seat at the table with the US. The Saudis did it to Biden in 2023, the UAE sees the opportunity to do it…

They need the dollars because they're an import-oriented economy, almost all of which are conducted in dollars (nobody wants their dirhams because oil is priced in dollars anyways). Dollars are also useful for their sovereign funds to invest into the US, either in the stock market, or in private equity. What happened this week - they announced they might start selling in yuan, they left the OPEC, and they started a n…

At last report (Feb 2026) the UAE had ~$250b in foreign currency reserves. They have plenty of non-AED currency.

The Yuan is the current bogeyman the Gulf States use when they want attention from the US (not that they’re not diversifying, just that it isn’t a structural shift in a meaningful way). The UAE is making this play right now to make sure they are part of the conversation in deciding how things with Iran end and making sure their influence is sustained after the current administration.

The wealth fund is a way to deploy whatever yuan they receive while gaining political favor with China as well.

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