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OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

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Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#351
post #191
post #7

I'm old enough to remember when companies worth $1 billion were called "unicorns." Now we have a company raising 122 times that? Valued at nearly 1000 times that...? At least they're throwing consumers a bone via the ARK deal. It's crazy how little AI exposure is available to anyone who isn't already wealthy and/or connected.

VCX (Fundrise) has way more exposure than ARKVX

It's also trading at a huge premium. Probably worth a read if you're considering it: https://www.morningstar.com/funds/fundrise-innovation-is-not...

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#352
post #336

What if all the people currently using these "AI" services are the entire market for those services? I'm pretty sure everyone that wants to use LLMs is already doing so and already paying for the service. That would mean the only way to increase growth would be to charge more per token and to get the existing people to use more tokens. Both of which seem to be only what mature companies do when trying to squeeze the…

When I show people personal projects I’ve vibe-coded with Claude Code, they often seem impressed and envious. They come up with ideas for things that they would like to do, too. But they have full-time jobs outside of IT, and when I mention they might need to use the terminal to do what I’m doing now their eyes glaze over. A couple of such people, after they learned about Claude Cowork, signed up for Anthropic subscr…

On the other hand, the productivity gains from AI automation are so large that you are forced to use it to compete in the workplace, even if you strongly dislike the terminal, you will dislike homelessness more.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And why do you think twenty competitors can stay competitive for years to come? Industries always consolidate and winners emerge. SOTA LLMs look like a natural monopoly or duopoly to me because the cost to train the next model keeps going up such that it won't make sense for 20 competitors to compete at the very high end. TSMC is a perfect example of this. Fab costs double every 4 years (Rock’s Law). It's almost impo…

The barrier to replicating TSMC isn't just cost, it's supply chain, geopolitics, and talent. Only one company on Earth can make the UV lithography machines TSMC buys for their highest end fabs, and they're not selling to anyone else. The PRC tried to brute force this supply chain backed by the full might of the Party's blank check, all red tape cut, literally the best possible duplication scenario, and they failed.

The PRC didn't fail, they haven't finished succeeding yet.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#354
post #342

$2b/month which is $24b/year. Not as much as I expected considering they were at $20b by end of 2025.[0] They only added $4b since? Anthropic had $19b by end of February 2026 and they added $6b in February alone.[1] This means if they added another $6b in March, they're higher than OpenAI already. However, I heard that OpenAI and Anthropic report revenue in a different way. OpenAI takes 20% of revenue from Azure sale…

OpenAI is a few years behind Anthropic, and it's unlikely they'll catch up at this point.

Where exactly are they behind?

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#355
post #29
post #7

I'm old enough to remember when companies worth $1 billion were called "unicorns." Now we have a company raising 122 times that? Valued at nearly 1000 times that...? At least they're throwing consumers a bone via the ARK deal. It's crazy how little AI exposure is available to anyone who isn't already wealthy and/or connected.

> At least they're throwing consumers a bone via the ARK deal. It's crazy how little AI exposure is available to anyone who isn't already wealthy and/or connected. It is deliberate. Period. It's always been known that you make money in the private markets and pre-IPO companies and retail is the final exit for insiders and early investors. Retail is not allowed to be early into these companies (Because that would ruin…

[deleted]

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#356
Fortunately, OpenAI's naming didn't cause a wave of greedy and predatory new companies, like OpenHealth, OpenEnergy, OpenCompute. The non-sexy name of their product using the originating algorithm (GPT) is punishing them. It could be anything else more attractive that would bring more customers. Because, for me, a good, inspiratory, engaging name is half the success.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#357

Fortunately, OpenAI's naming didn't cause a wave of greedy and predatory new companies, like OpenHealth, OpenEnergy, OpenCompute. The non-sexy name of their product using the originating algorithm (GPT) is punishing them. It could be anything else more attractive that would bring more customers. Because, for me, a good, inspiratory, engaging name is half the success.

https://www.opencompute.org

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#358

I get the appetite for frontier models. But why not just invest in Google. Do they really expect the return profile of OpenAI to be vastly different than Google’s Gemini?

Google has little need for more money, so the price will be much higher. OpenAI being a separate entity also means Google's competitors (Microsoft, Amazon) can invest there without looking silly.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#359
post #336

What if all the people currently using these "AI" services are the entire market for those services? I'm pretty sure everyone that wants to use LLMs is already doing so and already paying for the service. That would mean the only way to increase growth would be to charge more per token and to get the existing people to use more tokens. Both of which seem to be only what mature companies do when trying to squeeze the…

When I show people personal projects I’ve vibe-coded with Claude Code, they often seem impressed and envious. They come up with ideas for things that they would like to do, too. But they have full-time jobs outside of IT, and when I mention they might need to use the terminal to do what I’m doing now their eyes glaze over. A couple of such people, after they learned about Claude Cowork, signed up for Anthropic subscr…

Most of humanity hasn't figured out they need to adapt yet. It's a bit like email and the internet in the mid nineties. People had heard about it but hadn't really embraced it yet. Five years later most people with white collar jobs had email addresses. Fifteen years later, billions of internet capable smartphones were in circulation.

The AI revolution is following a similar adoption curve. Right now many of the tools are only really usable if you are a developer or at least not too shy making AI agents use developer tools on your behalf. That's not going to stay like that for very long. It's going to be a messy transition that will likely take much longer than some people seem to think. But eventually most people doing knowledge work will be leaning heavily on all sorts of AI agents to do their thing. And quite a few will have to learn new skills as most of the stuff they still do manually today just goes away as a thing that you do manually.

Like the mid nineties, these are amazing times for people with a slight head start over everybody else. Which is why there is such an investment frenzy around AI right now. Lots of possibilities where lots of money might be made. And lots of things that won't work out. And lots of people really not seeing the forest for the trees as well. And generally behaving like headless chickens. But the internet in the end proved to be not a fad and it didn't all go back to normal after the hype died and the .com bubble burst.

IMHO, the bubble around AI is not so much the technology but things like data center and energy pricing. The cost of data center production is long term a fraction of current cost (dominated by GPUs costing tens of thousands of dollars). Likewise cheap and plentiful energy to power them is going to eventually cost a lot less. Short term scarcity eats up a lot of billions right now. But you'd be mistaken to confuse that for long term structural cost. Cost is going to come down and that will drive adoption. And that's before you consider edge compute on commodity phones and laptops. There will be billions of devices running small AI agents. Add robotics to the mix and it's a whole new world.

In short, companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are valued so high because all of that is happening right now. Yes, it's a bit of a bubble. But stuff will definitely happen.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#360
post #342

$2b/month which is $24b/year. Not as much as I expected considering they were at $20b by end of 2025.[0] They only added $4b since? Anthropic had $19b by end of February 2026 and they added $6b in February alone.[1] This means if they added another $6b in March, they're higher than OpenAI already. However, I heard that OpenAI and Anthropic report revenue in a different way. OpenAI takes 20% of revenue from Azure sale…

OpenAI is a few years behind Anthropic, and it's unlikely they'll catch up at this point.

They’re about even in general, but for me OpenAI is slightly or significantly ahead in the areas I care about the most. E.g. claude code is a backend slop cannon if you don’t tell codex/gemini to review the outputs.
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