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US Job Market Visualizer

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Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#351

Post by munificent »

matthest wrote: post #243
lm28469 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If AI produces surplus where does it go? Not talking about investment backed datacenter buildout and AI labs. Talking about the results of AI work... The 1% pockets, this is where the vast majority of the extra productivity computers/internet/automation brought goes to for the last 50 years: https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/

The study doesn't say it went into the 1%'s pockets. It says it went to 2 places: 1) The salaries of corporate employees 2) Shareholders and capital owners Regarding number 2: "Shareholders" would include anyone who owns any stock at all, including a lot of middle class people with a simple S&P 500 ETF in their portfolio. And the increase in productivity allowed more people to become capital owners, AKA entrepreneurs…

> Regarding number 2: "Shareholders" would include anyone who owns any stock at all, including a lot of middle class people with a simple S&P 500 ETF in their portfolio.

Yes, but shares are not at all uniformly distributed. Tim Cook owns 3.28 million shares of AAPL. For comparison, the 50 million Vanguard customers have to divide 1.3 billion shares amongst them, averaging about 26 shares of AAPL each.

> And the increase in productivity allowed more people to become capital owners, AKA entrepreneurs. The explosion in software entrepreneurs, for example.

The majority of those end up getting bought by larger software companies.

Overall capital ownership is increasingly concentrated among a small number of elites.

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#352

Post by jvanderbot »

ForHackernews wrote: post #146
jvanderbot wrote: post #107

My takeaway here: 3.XT $ of US salaries are the TAM for AI companies. Apple, a very successful company, makes 300B/y revenue? (ish) ~10% is all you need to be Apple. And, it can work by taking all of 10% of the jobs and collecting the whole salary (the AI employee -- dubious proposition), or by taking 10% of everyone's salary and automating part of everyone's job (the AI "tool" -- much more plausible). If "part" bein…

Your math is missing the fact that Apple products are differentiated from their competitors. If AI becomes a ubiquitous commodity, it's not worth 300B/y. Potable water is far more important than AI or iPads ever will be, but the world's most valuable water company only does about 5B/year in revenue: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Water_Works

The point is that the market is big, and capturing a small part of it would make these companies wildly successful; and there's no need to make unemployment inevitable - I think this diminishes the AI Doom story quite a bit.

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#353

Post by gzread »

chabes wrote: post #220
gdhkgdhkvff wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is significantly less productive to hand wash dishes. But that’s fine to do manually if you wish for something that takes up maybe half an hour of your own time every several days. It’s not fine if washing dishes is your job. No company is going to hire an artisanal dish hand washer that refuses to use a dishwasher.

My parents (and many boomers in general) manually wash dishes and then still put them in the dishwasher. It is significantly less productive to do both, and yet…

I was taught to give them a quick rinse but let the dishwasher make them sparkly clean. This avoids clogging the dishwasher's pipes with excessive food waste. Certainly any piece of food you could pick up between your fingers must be scraped in the bin before going in the dishwasher (or before hand washing).

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#354

Post by democracy »

dwroberts wrote: post #54
observationist wrote: post #22

It's kinda cool to see a whole lot of otherwise intelligent people who are so dogmatically and ideologically opposed to anything AI that they're going to willfully dismiss anything that AI produces regardless of utility. It's not great for them, but it's a definite advantage for people who are already in the mindset of distinguishing and discriminating information and sources on merit, instead of running an "AI bad"…

> AI has already won. It's taking over. It might be a year or two, or five, or ten, but AI isn't slowing down, nobody is going to pause, and there's a whole shit ton of work people do that won't be meaningful or economically relevant in the very near term Maybe it was linked from a comment somewhere on HN but just today I saw a post saying “Microwaves are the future of all food: if you don’t think so, you better get…

It looks like a template with placeholders. Before it was "big data", then "Crypto", now they used "AI"

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#356

Post by democracy »

Traster wrote: post #132
observationist wrote: post #22

It's kinda cool to see a whole lot of otherwise intelligent people who are so dogmatically and ideologically opposed to anything AI that they're going to willfully dismiss anything that AI produces regardless of utility. It's not great for them, but it's a definite advantage for people who are already in the mindset of distinguishing and discriminating information and sources on merit, instead of running an "AI bad"…

I think a lot of the pushback comes down to your attitude. The way you're talking about AI is like how the crypto bros talked about bitcoin. Just being very insistent on your point of view is a red flag. Either you can present new data to convince people, or your insistence will just look like it's emotional rather than rational. I use AI every day as part of my work, it's very unclear to me where it's going and we h…

100% on point, the similarity to crypto slogans and posts is very suspicious. But crypto made a lot of people rich so I guess it works...

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#357

Post by ktoo_ »

seriocomic wrote: post #355

Can't believe some one has already made a Australian version: https://0xtreme.github.io/aus-jobs/

Is this coloured just on the AI exposure rating and not by the predicted growth at all? Because it paints a much red-er picture.

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#358

Post by yieldcrv »

the fun thing about being an AI researcher is seeing that all of the "we think AI won't affect these jobs" metrics are wrong

deep down you all know something is just going to randomly get released one week in the near future that makes you go "well pack it up boys", or you just haven't been paying attention

to clarify - just like the site says - I don't think those jobs are going away, maybe entry level will have the same issues as some industries are encountering, but ideas of relative immunity are completely wrong

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#359

Post by xjlin0 »

shagie wrote: post #282
dfadsadsf wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every year US absorbs 120k+ H1B+L1+OPT new visa holders. Considering there are 1.9M software engineers, market has to grow by 5% every year just to stand still. Add US graduates and you are talking about 10% growth required just to maintain employment. It's not realistic long term. Congress/president should pause H1B visas or hike up fee to 200-500K so that only truly exceptional talent are allowed in. Right now it's…

That makes the assumption that every H1B, L1, and OPT is going into software development. https://apnews.com/article/teacher-jobs-h1b-j1-visa-online-s... Like many school systems facing teacher shortages, South Carolina’s Allendale County has looked overseas for help. A quarter of the teachers in the rural, high-poverty district come from other countries. The superintendent praises the international educators — mostl…

Education sector should have exceptions

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#360

Post by Traster »

democracy wrote: post #356
Traster wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a lot of the pushback comes down to your attitude. The way you're talking about AI is like how the crypto bros talked about bitcoin. Just being very insistent on your point of view is a red flag. Either you can present new data to convince people, or your insistence will just look like it's emotional rather than rational. I use AI every day as part of my work, it's very unclear to me where it's going and we h…

100% on point, the similarity to crypto slogans and posts is very suspicious. But crypto made a lot of people rich so I guess it works...

Well what do you mean by "works" the guys on twitter screaming about "Have fun being poor", were by and large just trying to scam you. Like, I could phone up your grandmother and convince her she's got a virus and she needs to transfer her life savings to me before the hackers get it, that could make me rich, does that "work". I don't know what Crypto actually worked for beyond - creating a target rich environment for scammers, a neat way to buy drugs, and good way for criminals and rogue nations to launder money.
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