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US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

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Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#351

Stop paying rent. Stop going to work. Pirate everything. No constitution. No copyright. Starve the beast. Don't let anyone who bought into this way of life get away with robbing the rest of us. And don't let anyone who brought children into this cruelty hear the end of it: what they did was evil.

Now Skid Row hobos are commenting on HN, just great.

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is exactly what happened at a SaaS company I previously worked at. It was an awesome company with ~1500 employees, turning a small profit. Private Equity comes along, buys it with ~$2B in debt. Sticks the SaaS company with a $100M+ annual interest payment. Round after round after round of layoffs ensued. Then interest rates went up... and it got even worse. I think they are under 500 employees now. They basicall…

This was driven home to me at SaaS company with > $80M ARR when the new CEO was parachuted in by the PE owner said in an all-hands "and we're close to cashflow positive when we account for our interest payments..." How can a software company generating this much subscription revenue NOT be making money? When it's servicing the > $500M the PE firm used to buy it. The rest of the playbook was boringly predictable: cut…

It's the destructiveness that gets me. It's a perfectly good company, employees are happy, consumers are happy, profit is being made, it's sustaining itself... Then they come and just literally destroy all that.

This can't be good for society. I wonder why it's just not criminalized somehow.

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#353
post #247

So, if I’m following: Banks are lending to private equity firms to fund purchases of businesses. Many of these businesses are SaaS which means their valuations are tumbling. It seems possible that valuations tumble so much that the private equity owner no longer has any incentive to operate the business, bc all future cash flows will belong to the bank. What happens in practice then? Will banks actually step in and t…

> Banks are lending to private equity firms to fund purchases of businesses. Yes some businesses are SaaS but here's the real problem: Many businesses' sole purpose is _leveraged buy-outs_ which really is the devil in disguise. It goes like this: A VC specialising in veterinary clinics finds a nice, privately owned town clinic with regular customers and "fair" prices, approach the owners saying "we love the clinic yo…

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Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#354
post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> now the VC lends the money from the bank, buys the clinic, and here's the important part: _they push the debt onto the clinic's books This mostly correctly describes a leveraged buyout (LBO). LBOs are done by LBO shops, a type of private equity (PE) firm. Not VCs. (VCS do venture capital, a different type of PE.) And LBO debt isn’t “pushed” onto the company’s books, it’s never on the sponsor’s (LBO shop’s) books in…

> And LBO debt isn’t “pushed” onto the company’s books, it’s never on the sponsor’s (LBO shop’s) books in the first place to any material extent. Could you please explain the how and why of the mechanics of this process (edit: from the perspective of the lender)? It seems like the lender is taking a massive sucker bet. Or is the reality that the lender gets repaid the vast majority of the time, and we only hear about…

The latter. Big Banks lend to private equity because the profit is good and they are large enough to absorb the variability.

The public hates it because they see highly visible bankruptcies. They don't see the success stories, or the businesses successfully carved up for more value than the sum of their parts

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#355
post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> now the VC lends the money from the bank, buys the clinic, and here's the important part: _they push the debt onto the clinic's books This mostly correctly describes a leveraged buyout (LBO). LBOs are done by LBO shops, a type of private equity (PE) firm. Not VCs. (VCS do venture capital, a different type of PE.) And LBO debt isn’t “pushed” onto the company’s books, it’s never on the sponsor’s (LBO shop’s) books in…

> And LBO debt isn’t “pushed” onto the company’s books, it’s never on the sponsor’s (LBO shop’s) books in the first place to any material extent. Could you please explain the how and why of the mechanics of this process (edit: from the perspective of the lender)? It seems like the lender is taking a massive sucker bet. Or is the reality that the lender gets repaid the vast majority of the time, and we only hear about…

Any one loan may be risky, but in aggregate the rates compensate for it.

They pay you 0-4% for the money in your checking account and lend it at 1-3% points higher. As long as they have a big enough uncorrelated portfolio, they make easy money.

And if the whole portfolio tanks all at once, the whole industry gets bailed out.

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The free market solution to this seems to be making it easy / easier for competitors to arise. Then, when private equity does this, the customers, and workers, just hop ship to a competitor that's better managed and the original clinic goes under. I don't expect this happens in reality though. In general the things that happen in a healthy free market are NOT happening in our society.

This completely discounts the work involved to find service providers you trust. I spent a long time finding a Doctor I trust, finding a Vet I trust, etc. I don't want a "free market" solution where I need to switch providers every 6 months because some rich dude is being a dick. This is the problem with so many market focused solutions. They discount the burden put on the consumer.

I think the idea is that you'd have to switch less often.

People can scam you and jerk you around because you don't have options.

If you had options, they might be less inclined

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#358
post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Banks are lending to private equity firms to fund purchases of businesses. Yes some businesses are SaaS but here's the real problem: Many businesses' sole purpose is _leveraged buy-outs_ which really is the devil in disguise. It goes like this: A VC specialising in veterinary clinics finds a nice, privately owned town clinic with regular customers and "fair" prices, approach the owners saying "we love the clinic yo…

This is just wrong. VC is not PE. The Vet example is really a bad trope. For every bad deal there are many others you never hear about. PE firms are not making money by simply buying everything up. The business still has to maintain and grow.

Sure there are differences between tigers and vultures, but they both eat things till they're dead.

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#359
post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying that they're using their private-credit portfolio as a Tier 1 capitalization to meet their regulatory demands (not sure if the ~10-15 something% rule has come back yet?) Been a bit out of the finance game

> they're using their private-credit portfolio as a Tier 1 capitalization Banks' private-credit lending constitutes part of their risk-weighted assets. So yes, it's part of their CET1 [1], which is part of Tier 1 capital, and since it's equity measured it incorporates fucking everything. 4.5% is the U.S. minimum. Regulators start throwing their toys out of the pram when a bank breaches 7%. To be clear, I'm not seeing…

No one is paying attention that has any kind of plan to fix it. We’re just going to watch it crumble and the governments bail them out again.
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