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The Brand Age

paulgraham.com

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Re: The Brand Age

#351

Post by neuchatel1968 »

tempestn wrote: post #251

I like a lot of the points made here, and I think they likely hold truth in many scenarios. That said, in the case of watches (no pun intended), Grand Seiko seems like a counterexample to a few of the points made. First, they are very much still sold on the basis of both brand/design and engineering. Spring drive is an engineering marvel, and a lot of people appreciate such works of human ingenuity even if they are n…

I too felt like the omission of GS was a miss.

While the Swiss are competing for exclusivity, GS's UFA is clearly generations ahead of anything else in the market.

That said, as a GS owner, I still think their marketing sucks, the watch photos on their website are garbage, and no one except us watch nerds are going to remember SBGA211.

Re: The Brand Age

#352

Post by lo_zamoyski »

Such analysis always presupposes an anthropology (and a psychology) and a metaphysics. Without at least a good, sound intuition of these, you are bound to fall into all sorts of traps. Materialism will move you toward reductionism, pseudo-mysticism will move you toward reification or projection, and so on.

So, when we talk about the real and imagined value of a watch, we can consider it from different angles. You cannot pick one (like the first) and reduce all value judgements to just that measure.

1. the utility of a watch as a timekeeping artifact

2. the aesthetic quality as a work of art

3. the quality as ornament/jewelry

4. the effectiveness as signal of wealth

5. the quality as a particular kind of technology (mechanical vs. quartz), perhaps as an expression of historical techniques

The aim and measure are critical.

The trouble, then, is not that Patek is bad. A nice Patek watch is of excellent quality as (2), (3), and (5). As (1), for everyday use, yes; along an absolute axis concerned only with accuracy and precision, not so much. (4) is where the pathological and deceptive begins to creep. Where the market price with respect to (1), (2), (3), and (5) would reflect a just price, (4) becomes a race to the bottom of the most vulgar and base and irrational sort.

Re: The Brand Age

#353

Post by burgreblast »

If the author had been paying attention _while it was happening_, rather than looking back at history and re-stating it to fit his mental model, he would have seen something else.

Namely, the whole story of the rebound is Nicolas Hayek and Swatch. You see, at the explosion of quartz watches, everyone already had a drawer full of Rolexes and Pateks and AP's. They had done that. But telling time? More accurately? That was actually pretty boring.

Nicolas Hayek became a hero. It's fair to say, yes, he consolidated ASUAG + SSIH and built volume and all that. But really? It was about Emotion and redefining the Essential Function of a watch.

Swatch made Swiss watches cool again. The marketplace was saying Japan vs. Switzerland and quartz vs. old fashioned gears. Swatch rejected that and said "fun, whimsical. Wear not one, but several. You be you." What landed the message was wealthy Swiss keeping the Rolex in the drawer and believing in the the $19 Swatch. Aston Martin and Swatch. That was the way to roll.

It became a thing, the kids bought in, and the Swiss Watch Industry (Big Watch, lol) stayed relevant vs. Japan. It was a country vs. country fight and Swiss prevailed on creativity.

Swatch was such a watershed moment, tha that across Europe the key to Industrial Success became "Personalized Mass Production." Why? Because swatch quickly grew to be able to launch 2x70 models a year. The German Industrialists included personalized mass production and innovation in every slide deck for the next 20 years. And if you don't think that matters, look at Zara, and then Shein. Same playbook as Swatch. Swatch changed everything.

Re: The Brand Age

#356

Post by soperj »

intuitionist wrote: post #174
soperj wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't realize that "fools and their money will soon be parted" was a flex.

“There are three of these things made in a year, and I’ve got the juice to get one of them” is. Zuck doesn’t care about a million dollar price tag, any more than I would care about a couple bucks.

If he was buying a solid gold furby would you have the same take? That's great that he doesn't care, still looks like an idiot to me.

Re: The Brand Age

#357

Post by corry »

Classic PG essay in a lot of ways, but I was expecting (a) the entire watch discussion to be 1/10th of its length, and (b) lead DIRECTLY into a social commentary around how every area -- politics, software dev, music creation & distribution etc -- are now firmly in their terminal brand ages.

A political admin lies directly to your face daily - well, the base doesn't care because they've bought into the brand. The Truth and principles are irrelevant.

A talented musician is making innovative, fresh music - but hasn't yet learned the ability to market herself on IG/TikTok - well, she won't reach an audience because she can't compete in a brand game dominated by marketers and AI-driven beat-makers. The music is irrelevant.

Creating software used to be a very human thing - empathetic understanding of the user's problems, a dash of inspiration and good taste, and you get some cool stuff and possibly a valuable company; but now, if all that's automated, what is it? The craft is irrelevant.

Hmmmm. Perhaps his essay wasn't dark enough.

Re: The Brand Age

#358

Post by aalukabi »

corry wrote: post #357

Classic PG essay in a lot of ways, but I was expecting (a) the entire watch discussion to be 1/10th of its length, and (b) lead DIRECTLY into a social commentary around how every area -- politics, software dev, music creation & distribution etc -- are now firmly in their terminal brand ages. A political admin lies directly to your face daily - well, the base doesn't care because they've bought into the brand. The Tru…

I thought the essay would get into current events, but I felt sad that it didn't. And I don't feel it was dark, it was just just a chapter of history.

Re: The Brand Age

#359

Post by CAPSLOCKSSTUCK »

majormajor wrote: post #216
elevatortrim wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually most watch collectors do not wear their most expensive watches, they have daily or travel watches to wear that carry less risk. Also, watches are status symbols to a really narrow niche. Vast majority of people cannot name a non-Rolex expensive watch and would assume Seiko (and maybe Tissot) are the best watches after Rolex, followed by Swatch (and maybe Timex).

I don't think either of these points change the fact that if you bought a Rolex (or IWC or whatever) that someone slipped you out the side door of the factory, identical in every way except missing the logos, for a substantial discount, it would not be nearly as valuable or prestigious in your collection as a genuine one that other collectors would want. How much would a serious collector splash out on an unofficial…

Thank you for missing the point of the essay.

Re: The Brand Age

#360

Post by cousinbryce »

fnands wrote: post #338
gomox wrote: post #329

From the title and the beginning, I was sure this was going to be about the imminent brand age in software with the commoditization of the software engineering discipline brought on by AI.

Yeah, either that or the commoditization of LLMs. I.e. in the early days (2023-2025, lol), companies were mostly differentiated by the quality of their LLM, i.e. GPT-3.5 was leagues ahead of anyone else, so was for serious work the only game in town. Until recently it was basically only the US based companies (OpenAI/Anthropic) with models worth using. Now, Anthropic and OpenAI are neck-and-neck, and Chinese models a…

I think you’re right about the impetus for the piece. I’ll say that branding is for things consumed in public, I expect vendor lock in before branding. But as you know this site is awash in speculation about how the lack of differentiation will play out
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