Earlier quoted context omitted.
Would you use FSD with your children in the car? I sure as hell wouldn’t. Progress is not safety.
Yes I do in fact use FSD with my children in the car.
I pray for you and them. You need it
Tesla Sales Down 55% UK, 58% Spain, 59% Germany, 81% Netherlands, 93% Norway
351–360 of 378 posts
Re: Tesla Sales Down 55% UK, 58% Spain, 59% Germany, 81% Netherlands, 93% Norway
#352Earlier quoted context omitted.
They have a current production capacity in the high hundreds of thousands, a software solution that has a reasonable chance of competing in the self driving market, and a worldwide distribution platform. So the optimistic valuation is based on: Global ride share killer + Large car manufacturer + power infrastructure + Robotics. Somehow the valuation is as though TSLA will succeeded early enough to entrench itself; if…
> if robotaxi wide rollout happens in the next six months No worries, in 6 months Elon will promise something else and we'll be asking the same question again
Roadster launch is supposed to be on April 1st... Hard to think of any response other than "once bitten, twice shy"
Re: Tesla Sales Down 55% UK, 58% Spain, 59% Germany, 81% Netherlands, 93% Norway
#353Re: Tesla Sales Down 55% UK, 58% Spain, 59% Germany, 81% Netherlands, 93% Norway
#354The mystery I can wrap my head around is how Tesla has avoided getting hammered despite being hit from a hundred different directions. What exactly is the market pricing in? They peaked around 2021, and even after posting multiple quarters of disappointing results, the stock is still trading above 2021 levels. For almost any other company, slightly lowering guidance or missing estimates by a few percentage points sim…
The market discounts future returns but it is unclear and shifting what proportion of those returns are from the operations of the company in the market it sells products in and what proportion comes from the operations of traders in financial markets. More plainly, traders discount returns from buybacks and dividends financed by the operations of the company and returns from selling their shares to "greater fools".…
Even if they have FSD ready tomorrow the financials would not support this valuation.
Summing the sales figures in [0] we get 9M to 10M Teslas on the road. Let's say 10M and and let's say Tesla will keep selling 1.6M / year for the next 5 years [1]. This is 18M Teslas and let's assume all of them are converted into paying customers at $100 / month [2]. This works out to $21 B / year in income. $22 B / year in income cannot justify $1.5 T in market value.
Good thing they are switching to robots :)
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Tesla,_Inc.#Timelin... [1] - this is a huge assumption. Teslas sales are declining because of Musk's image, lack of innovation and competition from China.
[2] this is another huge assumption - I know 5 Teslas owners. They tried the $100 / month assisted driving (or whatever Tesla calls it these days). All said it was cool, but not worth it and did not sign up after the trial period. These are professionals who value their time (tech engineers and 1 banker)
Re: Tesla Sales Down 55% UK, 58% Spain, 59% Germany, 81% Netherlands, 93% Norway
#355Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Tesla came from nowhere, developed essentially one world-dominating product (lumping the 3 and Y together), then the CEO basically ruined everything. It seems strange to attribute only the fall -- and not the rise -- to the CEO
It seems strange to talk of attribution without talking about the founders.
Does it though? The company had no market traction or product, more just an idea and some early engineering exploration in the nine months before he joined.
I’m staunchly anti-Elon, but anyone who’s not giving him his due or acknowledging his very real successes before pointing out what a knob is he is not arguing soundly.
Re: Tesla Sales Down 55% UK, 58% Spain, 59% Germany, 81% Netherlands, 93% Norway
#356Earlier quoted context omitted.
Oh, yeah, to be clear, BYD is doing amazingly well. Just not, particularly, in Europe. This seems to confuse the media.
I suspect BYD would do a lot better in Europe if the political class wasn´t afraid of the fallout from the European manufacturers (VW, Stellantis, and all their child brands) being seriously damaged or even wiped out by the competition. That said, if relations between the EU and the US get much chillier, the EU may decide to make some sacrifices in order to have China in their camp. E.g. VW are arm-twisted into selli…
I suspect that, given people in EU are used to EU car prices, there's not going to be much willingness on the EU side to budge on cars (though the Chinese side may ask for it, of course, and should the EU get them there will be no going back given how much cheaper Chinese cars are).
If things get trade-war-y, American cars are way down the list of things the EU will care about finding substitutes for:
2024 US exports to EU were about $370bn: https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe...
Of which cars were $8.8bn: https://www.globalfleet.com/en/manufacturers/global/analysis...
Re: Tesla Sales Down 55% UK, 58% Spain, 59% Germany, 81% Netherlands, 93% Norway
#357Earlier quoted context omitted.
What is it about FSD that results in this valuation though? If elon builds a time machine and goes to the future to get FSD tech from 100 years from now and rolls it out to all teslas tomorrow, what will change? Will every car driver get rid of their cars and get a tesla? Will that suddenly justify the stupid valuation? Realistically, I don't think the majority of drivers will care that much. Sure, their sales will g…
Exactly. It's meme stock. There's no rational explanation for this ridiculous valuation. Tesla has been overvalued for a long time, and not by a bit either; they're worth more than the next several car makers put together, yet sell less cars than any of them. Their high valuation could still be considered defensible when they were the fastest growing car company in the world and the only one selling electric cars. Bu…
> It makes no sense to me.
Honestly, that's the easy part. Cynical, degenerate gambling.
Re: Tesla Sales Down 55% UK, 58% Spain, 59% Germany, 81% Netherlands, 93% Norway
#358The mystery I can wrap my head around is how Tesla has avoided getting hammered despite being hit from a hundred different directions. What exactly is the market pricing in? They peaked around 2021, and even after posting multiple quarters of disappointing results, the stock is still trading above 2021 levels. For almost any other company, slightly lowering guidance or missing estimates by a few percentage points sim…
I wonder if some of it is because of Musk, not despite him. Yes, his actions and statements in the last year have been terrible, but he also demonstrated he is very close to one of the most important power centers on the planet. That might be enough for some investors.
Re: Tesla Sales Down 55% UK, 58% Spain, 59% Germany, 81% Netherlands, 93% Norway
#359Earlier quoted context omitted.
As a software developer I only really started to understand how divorced from reality Elon is when he started talking about software development. That was a sinking feeling: "Oh he doesn't actually know something I don't know. He's just keeping the music playing, so he doesn't have to sit down on the chairs that don't exist. Fuck."
Just like watching the movie Hackers and hearing how he hacked the gibson or the 7 screens setup in swordfish : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1Ds9CeG-VY
Yeah I used to listen to interviews of him and think "Wow, what a visionary". Now it just sounds as cringe and unrealistic as that clip.
Re: Tesla Sales Down 55% UK, 58% Spain, 59% Germany, 81% Netherlands, 93% Norway
#360Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Tesla came from nowhere, developed essentially one world-dominating product (lumping the 3 and Y together), then the CEO basically ruined everything. It seems strange to attribute only the fall -- and not the rise -- to the CEO
There exists a huge amount of Musk derangement syndrome these days. Elon Musk is a great businessman and develops great products for general consumers. There is not much wrong with him other than his online persona... which most normal people can ignore. He's probably more normal than any other business leader. What's weird is people lumping in some of Elon's actions with falls in Tesla sales as if he didn't: 1. Pred…
>There is not much wrong with him other than his online persona
What about his support of Trump, his direct involvement with the US government via Doge, and lying about widespread election fraud?