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Two kinds of AI users are emerging

martinalderson.com

351–358 of 358 posts

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Surely making use of a new tool that makes you more productive would increase your value rather than decreasing it? Especially when, knowing the kinds of mistakes AI could make that would affect your codebase negatively in terms of maintainability, security etc would require significant experience.

> Surely making use of a new tool that makes you more productive would increase your value rather than decreasing it? Think wider. You, sharperguy, are not and will not the only person with access to these tools. Therefore, your productivity increase will likely be the same as everyone else's. If you are as good as everyone else, why would YOU get paid more? Have you ever seen a significant number of companies outsid…

> If you are as good as everyone else, why would YOU get paid more?

If every coal miner could suddenly produce 10x the amount of goal, do people say "well now we can just hire one coal miner instead of 10". Or do they say "now thousands of new project which were not economically viable due to the high price of coal are now viable, meaning we actually need to increase our total output beyond even 10x of what it was previously."

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#353
This seems to be a bit of an echo of the 1980s and the power shift brought about by the introduction of the IBM PC - the decentralization of control over data and processes from the walled garden of the computer room to the people at their desks with VisiCalc and BASIC, and then the explosion of productivity software.

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree and I am far from being a senior engineer. I'm only in the market since a few years and started out just before the whole LLM stuff started to pick up. So I have been grinding a lot (2nd job I've learned, am in tech since ~2020) only to be confronted with permanent existential fear of having to possibly learn a 3rd job (which takes 3 years of full time work for neglectable pay in my country). I dont want to s…

I work with/am friends with many junior-ish developers who are in the same place as you (got into programming in their late 20s around the 2020 hiring cycle). I'm very sorry for the stress you're dealing with. I don't know if this describes your situation, but I know many people who are dealing with positions where they have no technical mentorship, no real engineering culture to grow in, and a lot of deadlines and w…

Yea I never had real mentorship and I am responsible for 6 projects as solo developer. I am heavily against using LLMs for my tasks as thats just passionless mind numbing back and forth with a machine trying to get it to spit out stuff I actually understand.

I also learned that I absolutely hate most programmers. No offense. But most I've been talking to have a complete lack of ethics. I really love programming but I have a massive issue with how industry scale programming is performed (just offloading infra to AWS, just using random JS libs for everything, buying design templates instead of actually building components yourself, 99% of apps being simple CRUD and I am so incredibly tired of building http based apps, web forms and whatnot...)

I love tech, but the industry does not have a soul. The whole joy of learning new things is diminishing the more I learn about the industry.

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Surely making use of a new tool that makes you more productive would increase your value rather than decreasing it? Think wider. You, sharperguy, are not and will not the only person with access to these tools. Therefore, your productivity increase will likely be the same as everyone else's. If you are as good as everyone else, why would YOU get paid more? Have you ever seen a significant number of companies outsid…

> If you are as good as everyone else, why would YOU get paid more? If every coal miner could suddenly produce 10x the amount of goal, do people say "well now we can just hire one coal miner instead of 10". Or do they say "now thousands of new project which were not economically viable due to the high price of coal are now viable, meaning we actually need to increase our total output beyond even 10x of what it was pr…

Coal miners are cheap, easy to replace and have little negotiation power. Devs are expensive, harder to replace and have some leverage. Coal miners can take a pick or an axe with them when they leave. Devs can take away with them valuable operational knowledge with them that can bring to a competitor. Not comparable.

Plus, look at the job market. Every single tech company out there has been laying off devs in the last 3 years. If maximising productivity above expenses was so valuable, every tech company out there would be hiring like crazy because senior devs are cheap as chips nowadays. But they aren't, devs might be cheap but money itself isn't right now so they are prioritising lower expenses over increased productivity. Because that makes shareholders happy. And that's what every company aims for.

Maximising productivity is only an absolute goal in the minds of devs not in the minds of executives.

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#357
post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of this speedrun hits a wall at the context window. As long as the project fits into 200k tokens, you’re flying. The moment it outgrows that, productivity doesn’t drop by 20% - it drops to zero. You start spending hours explaining to the agent what you changed in another file that it has already forgotten. Large organizations win in the long run precisely because they rely on processes that don’t depend on the me…

Everyone I know who is using AI effectively has solved for the context window problem in their process. You use design, planning and task documents to bootstrap fresh contexts as the agents move through the task. Using these approaches you can have the agents address bigger and bigger problems. And you can get them to split the work into easily reviewable chunks, which is where the bottleneck is these days. Plus the…

My point wasn't that it's impossible, but that it creates a massive layer of overhead. Previously the project "state" lived in the developer's head; now for the agent to be effective, you have to constantly offload that state into design docs and task files. The job shifts from "writing code" to "managing external memory" for the agent. Those who have mastered this (like you) are indeed flying, but those trying to just chat with the code without this discipline are hitting a wall

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#358
I see this split clearly in real products: some users treat AI like a tool to support their workflow, others treat it like a replacement for thinking. The first group uses AI to reduce repetitive work and interprets results critically; the second group abandons it when outcomes aren’t perfect.

In practice, the users who end up valuing AI are the ones who see it as an assistant, not an oracle. That distinction matters because it shapes how you design UI, fallback flows, and trust signals. If the interface assumes perfect output, retention drops; if it assumes collaboration with the user, retention improves.

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