Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon • Hacker News Board

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#351

Post by YZF » Sat, Jan 31, 2026, 5:16 AM UTC

baby_souffle wrote: post #214

JKCalhoun wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still, he'll be gone one day and I am going to be all in on that day. It'll all be hockey-sticks from that moment on.

Trump, yes. The millions of people that voted for him multiple times despite no shortage of reports and credible allegations that he was a scumbag... Will not. Trump isn't the problem, he's a symptom.

What you're missing is that America was always like that. And it's been extremely successful. For sure there have been some changes in social dynamics, not just in the US, but worldwide. But the recipe that made the US successful has not changed much. Market economy, geography, attracting talent, innovation, freedom.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#352

Post by UltraSane » Sat, Jan 31, 2026, 5:19 AM UTC

baby_souffle wrote: post #214

JKCalhoun wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still, he'll be gone one day and I am going to be all in on that day. It'll all be hockey-sticks from that moment on.

Trump, yes. The millions of people that voted for him multiple times despite no shortage of reports and credible allegations that he was a scumbag... Will not. Trump isn't the problem, he's a symptom.

No, Trump getting elected twice is the exact reason Fox News and the like were created.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#353

Post by jmward01 » Sat, Jan 31, 2026, 5:24 AM UTC

panarky wrote: post #270

SllX wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Should the US become an unfriendly power to the rest of the western world, it will find the demand for its currency plummeting, which I don't want to outline is a big issue. Right now this is much more of a maybe, possibly, eventually, over a long enough time horizon. As of the end of 2025, USD still made up 57% of foreign reserves vs 20% for the Euro and 3% for the Chinese renminbi. Nearly all commodities are stil…

The international "rules-based order" is a good idea when most nations play by the rules most of the time, and when the most powerful at least pretend to follow the same rules as everyone else. A world order based on rules makes it possible to live at a much higher level of abstraction. Abstractions like rule of law, democracy, government currencies and stock exchanges are intangible and imaginary. They're mostly jus…

I generally agree with your comment except the 'back to the real world' part. This is just the difference between a world with the gains that cooperation give verses a world with just the maximized minimum return that distrust leads to. A trusting world is the real world we have seen for decades. It is a real world we can choose to keep pushing for.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#354

Post by YZF » Sat, Jan 31, 2026, 5:26 AM UTC

torginus wrote: post #84

I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…

This time is not different in the sense that at some point crazy valuations get a reality check. But that's not "the crash of the US economy", that's a stock market crash, and those will happen (tell me when - I'd also like to know) and they also tend to crash all around the world.

The US economy has had ups and downs and I'm sure will still have but despite the wishful thinking of Marxists it's still the least worst economy around in perhaps the least worst country. It still attracts talent and money. It still leads in many areas. It's still very productive. There are huge ecosystems and a cultural base. It's still the world's largest economy. Where will the balance tilt? China? India?

Anyways, be careful of what you wish for, if the power shifts to China we are going to have a very different world, and not in a good way. I don't think it's even in China's interest to see a large decline of the US, after all they're a big customer.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#355

Post by nazcan » Sat, Jan 31, 2026, 5:28 AM UTC

torginus wrote: post #84

I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…

This is one thing I've heard repeated - that USD needs to be spent in America - seems like other countries could just transact with it directly.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#356

Post by ActorNightly » Sat, Jan 31, 2026, 5:28 AM UTC

torginus wrote: post #84

I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…

Its standard Republican playbook.

Get in power, enrich themselves, kick the can down the road to Democrats, then blame the Democrats for poor economy.

This is why ironically Trump cancelling elections and installing himself as a 3d term president would actually be good. People need to see that no matter how bad they think things were under Democrats, it can get much much worse. Say goodbye to your house value and 401k plans for retirement, you gonna be a wage slave well into your 60s, but hey, at least we fixed "wokeness"

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#357

Post by kayamon » Sat, Jan 31, 2026, 5:31 AM UTC

SchwKatze wrote: post #8

I'm kinda new into economy crashes, was a kid in 2008, is there a way to protect of it?

The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#358

Post by ActorNightly » Sat, Jan 31, 2026, 5:32 AM UTC

zahlman wrote: post #222

> Here’s the current price of silver. Not shown on the chart (and which couldn't have been predicted at the time of writing) is today's crash of almost 30% in that price. Speculative bubbles happen. The narrative of people losing faith in currency made no sense, because that should pump the prices of durable commodities as well, if not instead of precious metals.

Once the supreme court decision about Trump went out, I took all of my investments and put into a savings account.

When a dip happens, I simply take 10% of the money, buy the dip, then sell when the price hits pre dip.

So far Ive netted significantly more than any of my peers that actually do investing.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#359

Post by komali2 » Sat, Jan 31, 2026, 5:33 AM UTC

xyzzy123 wrote: post #256

torginus wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally I'm less and less inclined to believe in capitalism and money as a concept - we've long past moved the concept of money as universal barter, and into strange and speculative theories about how things ought to be valued, with the most valuable things either emerging from immediately unclear value propositions (impossibly valued companies, high-paid jobs that seemingly dont contribute to society) or artifici…

A bottle of water in the desert and a bottle of water in your fridge don't have the same value.

That's only because, for some reason, people have conflated the words "value," "price," and "cost" until the terms are indistinguishable.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#360

Post by thaumasiotes » Sat, Jan 31, 2026, 5:34 AM UTC

nazcan wrote: post #355

torginus wrote: post #84

I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…

This is one thing I've heard repeated - that USD needs to be spent in America - seems like other countries could just transact with it directly.

They can and they do; that's called dollarization.

It's worth observing that dollars that are never supposed to return to the US don't have the same anti-counterfeiting pressure that dollars spent in the US do. I don't know how much of a market there is in counterfeiting USD for dollarized economies.