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Is it a bubble?

oaktreecapital.com

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Re: Is it a bubble?

#351

Post by suzzer99 »

bigstrat2003 wrote: post #308
simianwords wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are you so sure it is not capable of cognition?

Because it very obviously isn't. For example (though this is a year or so ago), look at when people hooked Claude up to Pokemon. It got stuck on things that no human, even a small child, would get stuck on (such as going in and out of a building over and over). I'm sure we could train an LLM to play Pokemon, but you don't need to train a child to play. You hand them the game and they figure it out with no prior exper…

100%. Slack does this annoying thing where I click a chat, which gains focus, but I actually have to click again to switch to the chat I want. Every now and then I slack the wrong person, fortunately not to disastrous consequences, yet.

If I had a moderately intelligent human who never loses focus looking over my shoulder, they might say something like "Hey, you're typing a Tailwind CSS issue in the DevOps group chat. Did you mean that for one of the front-end devs?"

Similarly, about once or twice a year, I set the alarm on my phone and then accidentally scroll the wheel to PM w/o noticing. A non-brain-dead human would see that and say, "Are you sure you want to set your alarm for 8:35 PM Saturday?"

When we have a digital assistant that can do these things, and not because it's been specifically trained on these or similar issues, then I'll start to believe we're closing in on AGI.

At the very least I'd like to be able to tell a digital assistant to help me with things like this as they come up, and have it a) remember forever and b) realize stuff like Zoom chat has the same potential for screw ups as Slack chat (albeit w/o the weird focus thing).

Re: Is it a bubble?

#352

Post by red75prime »

bossyTeacher wrote: post #15

The problem is that people conflate the current wave of transformer based ANNs with AI (as a whole). AI certainly has the potential to disrupt employment of humans. Transformers as they exist today not so much. AI's potential isn't defined by the potential of the current crop of transformers. However, many people seem to think otherwise and this will be incredibly damaging for AI as a whole once transformer tech inve…

So, you bet on a) transformers can't be a load-bearing part of AI, and b) whatever replaces them will not be able to utilize TPUs. Do you have any reasons for those assumptions?

Looking at your history it's something like "I tried them and they hallucinate" and, possibly, you've read an article that talks about inevitability of hallucinations. Correct? What's your reason for thinking that hallucination rate can't be lowered to or below the human rate ("Damn! What I was thinking about?").

Re: Is it a bubble?

#353

Post by johnfn »

IceDane wrote: post #335
johnfn wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I were to summarize the intent of my comments in a single sentence, it would be something like "I have been an engineer for a while, and I have been able to do fun stuff with AI quickly." You somehow managed to respond to that by disparaging me as an engineer ("Experienced Dev") and saying the fun stuff I did is low quality ("should have [...] done better work"). It's so far away from the point I was making, and s…

Look, I'm not trying to dunk on your website for fun. The issue is that you're making a specific argument: you're an experienced developer who uses AI to be 5-10x more productive without downsides, and you properly audit all the code it generates. You then offered your project as evidence of this workflow in action. The problem is that your project has basic performance issues - FOUC, render waterfalls - that are cen…

I will accept for the moment that you are not just being willfully cruel.

Let's talk a little about FOUC and the waterfall. I am aware of both issues. In fact, they're both on my personal TODO list (along with some other fun stuff, like SSR). I have no doubt I could vibe code them both away, and at some point, I will. I've done plenty harder things. I haven't yet, because I was focusing on stuff that my moderators and users wanted me to do. They wanted features to ban users, a forgot password feature, email notifications, mobile support, dark mode, and a couple of other moderation tools. I added those. No one complained about FOUC or the waterfall, and no one said that the site loaded slowly, so I didn't prioritize those issues.

I understand you think your cited issues are important. To be honest, they irk me, too. But no one who actually uses the site mentioned them. So, when forced to prioritize, I added stuff they cared about instead.

> You can't argue from professional authority that AI makes you more productive without compromise, use your work as proof, and then retreat to "it's just for fun" when someone points out the quality issues

You seem to have missed the point of saying "it's just for fun". My point was this: You are holding a week-long project done with AI to professional standards. Nothing ever done in a week is going to be professional level! That is an absurd standard! You are pointing at the rough edges, that of course exist because it was done on the side, as some insane gotcha that proves the whole thing is a house of cards. "This is "dull work"! You should "have done better work" if you wanted to talk with us"! For FOUC?!? C'mon.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#354

Post by thenaturalist »

dmurvihill wrote: post #340

This says it all: > I haven’t met anyone who doesn’t believe artificial intelligence has the potential to be one of the biggest technological developments of all time, reshaping both daily life and the global economy. You’re trying to weigh in on this topic and you didn’t even _talk_ to a bear?

Also equating artificial intelligence with LLMs.

I get that laymen and the media do it, but imo this looks really bad for an investor.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#355

Post by suzzer99 »

spaqin wrote: post #277
nadermx wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what you remember https://web.archive.org/web/20231106214450/https://www.inter... . What you see now, I did in an afternoon with AI; it's monumental. No way I could of done that in that time. At all.

Yeah but what was wrong with the previous implementation that it had to be redone?

And why would I need to log in to test my internet speed?

Re: Is it a bubble?

#356

Post by 59nadir »

brazukadev wrote: post #22
rprend wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI writes most of the code for most new YC companies, as of this year.

That explains the low quality of all launch HN this year

YC companies have pretty much always been overhyped trivial bullshit. I'm not surprised it's even worse nowadays, but it's never been more than a dog and pony show for bullshit.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#357

Post by thenaturalist »

lm28469 wrote: post #346
dmurvihill wrote: post #340

This says it all: > I haven’t met anyone who doesn’t believe artificial intelligence has the potential to be one of the biggest technological developments of all time, reshaping both daily life and the global economy. You’re trying to weigh in on this topic and you didn’t even _talk_ to a bear?

"My technosolutionist bubble says it's not a bubble, trust me bro"

„Just XYZ more billion, bro, and then we’re gonna have AGI! For real bro, pleaseeee!“

Re: Is it a bubble?

#358

Post by dust42 »

rfrey wrote: post #248
9rx wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's true for me. I type in what I want and then the AI system (compiler) generates the code. Doesn't everyone work that way?

I understand what you're getting at, but compilers are deterministic. AI isn't just another tool, or just a higher level of program specification.

And so is "AI". Unless you add randomness AKA raise the temperature.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#359

Post by thenaturalist »

sp4cec0wb0y wrote: post #7

> In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. What a wild and speculative claim. Is there any source for this information?

No, but there are huuuuuge incentives by people publishing such statements.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#360

Post by keybored »

dmurvihill wrote: post #340

This says it all: > I haven’t met anyone who doesn’t believe artificial intelligence has the potential to be one of the biggest technological developments of all time, reshaping both daily life and the global economy. You’re trying to weigh in on this topic and you didn’t even _talk_ to a bear?

I never talk to people who don’t wear suits.
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