> 90% of the horses in the US disappeared Where did they go?
The glue factory.
Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden
351–360 of 663 posts
Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden
#352Maybe I can get a job programming for the Amish.
Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden
#353I may have developed some kind of paranoia reading HN recently, but the AI atmosphere is absolutely nuts to me. Have you ever thought that you would see a chart showing how population of horses was decimated by the mass introduction of efficient engines accompanied by an implication that there is a parallel to human population? And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather from perspective of some kind of economic determinism? Have you ever thought that you would be compared to a gasoline engine and everyone would discuss this juxtaposition from purely economic perspective? And barely anyone shares a thought like "technology should be warranted by the populace, not the other way around?". And the guy writing this works at Anthropic? The very guy who makes this thing happen, but is only able to conclude this with "I very much hope we'll get the two decades that horses did". What the hell.
Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden
#354Earlier quoted context omitted.
B2C businesses need consumers. If AIs take all the jobs, then most of the population-minus the small minority who are independently wealthy and can live off their investments-go broke, and can’t afford to buy anything any more. Then all the B2C businesses go broke. Then all the B2B businesses lose all their B2C business customers and go broke. Then the stock market crashes and the independently wealthy lose all their…
Can the process be similar to a sudden collapse of USSR's economic system? The leaders weren't stupid and tried to keep it afloat but with underlying systemic issues everything just cratered. Can the process be modelled using game theory where the actors are greedy corporate leaders and hungry populace?
The USSR’s political system collapsed fairly suddenly. Its economic system had been rotten for decades.
Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden
#355Earlier quoted context omitted.
To give backing i’m from Australia which has ~2.5x the median wealth per capita of US citizens but a lower average wealth. This shows through in the wealth of a typical citizen. Less homelessness, better living standards (hdi in australia is higher) etc. Compare sorting by median vs average to get a sense of the issue; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_pe... This is a recent development where…
> All it takes is tax on the extremely wealthy and lessening taxes on the middle class… seems obvious right? You could tax 100% of all of the top 1%'s income (not progressively, just a flat 100% tax) and it'd cover less than double the federal government's budget deficit in the US. There would be just enough left over to pay for making the covid 19 ACA subsidies permanent and a few other pet projects. Of course, you…
What are you responding to?
How much of the current burden is shouldered by the middle class? How much by the 1%? How does that compare to other Western nations? What measurable effect would raising this on the 1% be? What about the middle class?
Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden
#356Earlier quoted context omitted.
To give backing i’m from Australia which has ~2.5x the median wealth per capita of US citizens but a lower average wealth. This shows through in the wealth of a typical citizen. Less homelessness, better living standards (hdi in australia is higher) etc. Compare sorting by median vs average to get a sense of the issue; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_pe... This is a recent development where…
> All it takes is tax on the extremely wealthy and lessening taxes on the middle class… seems obvious right? You could tax 100% of all of the top 1%'s income (not progressively, just a flat 100% tax) and it'd cover less than double the federal government's budget deficit in the US. There would be just enough left over to pay for making the covid 19 ACA subsidies permanent and a few other pet projects. Of course, you…
Paper income tax rates are completely and utterly meaningless. Bringing them up is just muddying the waters. Effective rates on total income (including from capital, wealth taxes etc.), post-loopholes, are the only thing that matters.
Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden
#357Earlier quoted context omitted.
"The only reason to reduce headcount is to remove people who already weren’t providing much value." I wish corporations really acted this rationally. At least where I live hospitals fired most secretaries and assistants to doctors a long time ago. The end result? High-paid doctors spending significant portion of their time on administrative and bureaucratic tasks that were previously handled by those secretaries, pre…
That's what I see when companies cut juniors as well. AI cannot replace a junior because a junior has full and complete agency, accountability, and purpose. They retain learning and become a sharper bespoke resource for the business as time goes on. The PM tells them what to do and I give them guidance. If you take away the juniors, you are now asking your seniors to do that work instead which is more expensive and w…
> well I can't leave a task with the LLM and come back to it tomorrow
You could actually just do that, leave an agent on a problem you would give a junior, go back on your main task and whenever you feel like it check the agent's work.
Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden
#358I may have developed some kind of paranoia reading HN recently, but the AI atmosphere is absolutely nuts to me. Have you ever thought that you would see a chart showing how population of horses was decimated by the mass introduction of efficient engines accompanied by an implication that there is a parallel to human population? And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather…
Incentives rule everything.
For the Romans, winning wars was the main source of elite prestige. So the Empire had to expand to accommodate winning more wars.
Today, the stock market and material wealth dominates. If elite dominance of the means of production requires the immiseration of most of the public, that's what we'll get.
Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden
#359I think my software engineering job will be safe so long as big companies keep using average code as their training set. This is because the average developer creates unnecessary complexity which creates more work for me. The way the average dev structures their code requires like 10x the number of lines as I do and at least 10x the amount of time to maintain... The interest on technical debt compounds like interest…
If they became big companies with that "unnecessary complexity", maybe code quality does not matter as much as you want to believe. Furthermore, even the fastest or well behaved horses were replaced.
Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden
#360I may have developed some kind of paranoia reading HN recently, but the AI atmosphere is absolutely nuts to me. Have you ever thought that you would see a chart showing how population of horses was decimated by the mass introduction of efficient engines accompanied by an implication that there is a parallel to human population? And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather…
I think, like the Bill Gates haters who interpret him talking about reducing the rate of birth in Africa as wanting to kill Africans, you're interpreting it wrong.
The graph says horse ownership per person. People probably stopped buying horses, they let theirs retire (well, to be honest, probably also sent to the glue factory), and when they stopped buying new horses, horse breeding programs slowed down.