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The RAM shortage comes for us all

jeffgeerling.com

351–360 of 416 posts

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#351
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The first "proper" "modern" computer I had, initially came with 8 megabytes of RAM. It's not a lot, but it's enough for a dumb terminal.

A dumb terminal doesn't even need a tenth of that.

Where do you put the framebuffer?

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#352

32GB should be more than enough. You can go 16GB if you go native and throw some assembly in the mix. Use old school scripting languages. Debloat browsers. It has been long delayed.

It's the websites that are bloated, not the browsers. (Well, maybe they are too, but it's secondary.)

Visit any news site or any Fandom wiki and then check eg Firefox about:memory. It'll be a lot.

And for security reasons, different tabs can't easily share resources like you might expect them to.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#353

I just gathered enough money to build my new PC. I'll even go to another country to pay less taxes, and this spike hit me hard. I'll buy anyway because I don't believe it will slow down so soon. But yeah, for me is a lot of money

I am sure it sucks if you had a build planned. I had to shelve a build when graphics cards shot a few years back all the sudden.

In general, I can't but help think it feels like something we will remember in the future as a marker of the peak of the LLM bubble.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#354
post #124

This reminds me of the recent LaurieWired video presenting a hypothetical of, "what if we stopped making CPUs": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2OJFqs8bUk Spoiler, but the answer is basically that old hardware rules the day because it lasts longer and is more reliable of timespans of decades. DDR5 32GB is currently going for ~$330 on Amazon DDR4 32GB is currently going for ~$130 on Amazon DDR3 32GB is currently goin…

Yes, DDR3 is the lowest CAS latency and lasts ALOT longer. Just like SSDs from 2010 have 100.000 writes per bit instead of below 10.000. CPUs might even follow the same durability pattern but that remains to be seen. Keep your old machines alive and backed up!

Old machines use a lot more power (worse nm), and DDR5 has equivalent to ECC, while previously you had to specifically get ECC RAM and it wouldn't work on cheaper Intel hardware (bulk of old hardware is going to be Intel).

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#355
post #263
post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

RAM latency doesn't affect mouse response in any perceptible way. The fastest gaming mice I know of run at 8000Hz, so that's 125000ns between samples, much bigger than any CAS latency. And most mice run substantially slower. Maybe your old PC used lower-latency GUI software, e.g. uncomposited Xorg instead of Wayland.

I only felt it on Windows, maybe tht is due to the special USB mouse drivers Microsoft made? Still motion-to-photon latency is really lower on my DDR3 PCs, would be cool to know why.

Dan Luu actually measured latency of older computers (terminal, input latency), and compared it to modern computers. It shows older computers (and I mean previous century-wise old) have lower input latency. This is much more interesting than 'feelings', especially when discussing with other people.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#356
post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're simply making a bet that they can put the DRAM dies to more valuable use than any of the existing alternatives, including e.g. average folks playing the latest videogames on their gaming rig. At this kind of scale, they had better be right or they are toast: they have essentially gone all-in on their bet that this whole AI thing is not going to 'pop' anytime soon.

> They're simply making a bet that they can put the DRAM dies to more valuable use than any of the existing alternatives They can't. They know they can't. We all know they can't. But they can just keep abusing the infinite money glitch to price everyone else out, so it doesn't matter.

Perhaps ChatGPT has given them instructions.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#357

I know this is mostly paranoid thinking on my behalf, but it almost feels like this is a conscious effort to attempt to destroy "personal" computing. I've been a huge advocate for local, open, generative AI as the best resistance to massive take-over by large corporations controlling all of this content creation. But even as it is (or "was" I should say), running decent models at home is prohibitively expensive for m…

This is exactly the kind of thing you would expect to happen and to feel in an insane unsustainable bubble.

I am much more worried looking at these ridiculous prices on newegg that memory will be dirt cheap 3 years from now because the economy has imploded from this mass stupidity.

I was blown away by Gemini 3 at first but now from using it I have ran into all the dumb things it does because it is a large language model.

What I notice getting shorter is the time between the frontier model making me feel I will have no job prospects in the future to the model reminding me that LLMs are fundamentally flawed.

It is because I want to believe in AGI. I love the holy shit moment of a new model, it is so exciting. I don't want to face the reality that we have made an enormous mistake. I want to believe OpenAI will take over computing because the alternative of some kind of Great AI winter bubble burst would be such a horrible experience to go through.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#358

anybody care to speculate on how long this is likely to last? is this a blip that will resolve itself in six months, or is this demand sustainable and we are talking years to build up new manufacturing facilities to meet demand?

If all goes "well", starting work on a new DDR5 fab now would result in having it ready to go when DDR6 hits the market:

https://www.techpowerup.com/339178/ddr6-memory-arrives-in-20...

So the supply side won't get better until about 2028.

I suppose you could hope for an AI crash bad enough to wipe out OpenAI, but unless it happens within the next few months, it may still be too late to profitably restore the DDR5 production lines now being converted to HBM, even if the broader economy doesn't tank:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/if-ai-is-bubble-econo...

Perhaps not coincidentally, that Reuters article was published the same day OpenAI announced that it had cornered an estimated 40% of the world's DRAM production:

https://openai.com/index/samsung-and-sk-join-stargate/

https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/openais-star...

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Value =/= cash reserves. Valve has ran VERY lean for quite some time.

Sure, but valuation should always exceed cash reserves. It's very odd when it does not. I think I recall that that SUNW (by then JAVA probably) was at one point valued below cash, prior to ORCL acquisition. If Valve's secrecy is so good that they have (substantially more than) 30-500x cash stashed away in excess of their public valuation estimates, then perhaps I underestimate Valve's secrecy! More likely, it was an…

They're not publicly traded, so we really don't know.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#360
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China cannot buy ASML machines. All advanced semiconductor manufacturing in China is done with stockpiled ASML machines from before the ban.

As someone who knows next to nothing about this space, why can China not build their own machines? Is ASML the only company making those machines? If so, why? Is it a matter of patents, or is the knowledge required for this so specialized only they've built it up?

If you want EUV (lowest nm), you'll need ASML, and they won't sell it to random strangers. EUV isn't exported to China. Only the end product is.
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