Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months • Hacker News Board

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#351

Post by mike_d » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 5:36 PM UTC

zarzavat wrote: post #154

mike_d wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What?? Replace DRAM with peaches or table legs and you have the exact example they give you during management training to explain implicit collusion.

That's when you raise prices without a change in the market conditions. OpenAI is creating more demand, therefore the price must go up, if it didn't then there'd be shortages.

I can see how it can be confusing.

If you know demand will go up because Microsoft announced that each new Xbox will have 2TB of RAM, that is perfectly fine. Or if OpenAI issues a press release that they intend to buy half the worlds RAM.

If you know demand will go up because you learn the volume your customer intends to purchase from your competitor during confidential negotiations, that is not ok.

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#352

Post by edm0nd » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 5:48 PM UTC

twoodfin wrote: post #88

edm0nd wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would snag up every possible H100 and H200 if the AI bubble burst and their prices went into steep decline.

Why? Doesn’t that suggest that demand justifies the “bubble”?

to make cheap and fast password hash cracking rigs

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#353

Post by nickpsecurity » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 6:00 PM UTC

At these prices, it might pay off to start an open-ish, non-profit, DRAM company to produce chips good enough for these purposes. They can sell a certain amount above cost for consumers and small businesses. Full price with guaranteed volume for some, enterprise suppliers.

The profits might be used to port the DRAM to multiple foundries to gradually increase supply. Alternatively, they can shift to produce other components, like VRAM. Make the low-to-midrange accelerators with larger VRAM more available at reasonable prices.

Just speculating. I don't know silicon economics well.

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#354

Post by venturecruelty » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 6:24 PM UTC

kragen wrote: post #30

venturecruelty wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, they'll be shipped off to developing nations to be dissolved for rare earths for the next boom cycle.

Memory chips don't contain rare earths, and e-waste recyclers pay a tiny fraction of what used-hardware buyers do.

My point was not to litigate the precise method of e-waste disposal.

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#355

Post by zackify » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 6:26 PM UTC

bean469 wrote: post #294

shpx wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On this graph, the most expensive RAM is $12.5 / GB ($400 for DDR5-6000 2x16GB). Apple charges - $25 / GB ($200 for 8 GB for the M5 MacBook Pro and the M4 MacBook Air) - $16 / GB ($400 for 24 GB for the cheapest M4 Pro MacBook Pro) - $12.5 / GB ($200 for 16 GB and then $800 for 64 GB more for the most expensive M4 Pro and M4 Max MacBook Pros) and Apple's RAM is faster than PC RAM.

> Apple's RAM is faster than PC RAM Are you sure about that? The M5 memory has a max bandwidth of ~150 GB/s, meanwhile there is PC memory that reaches 200 GB/s

m4 max is over 500

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#356

Post by khannn » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 6:27 PM UTC

atwrk wrote: post #230

AndrewDavis wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To those who haven't heard how colossal the size of OpenAIs contracts are. 900,000 wafers monthly. Tom's hardware estimates that is equal to 40% of global dram production capacity. https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/openais-star...

I find it very telling that both Samsung and SK Hynix already stated that they don't plan to expand capacity - officially to prevent overcapacity in the future. It would also be plausable that both doubt OpenAI will follow through with the contract.

I sincerely hope that OpenAI goes down in flames with those DRAM contracts are going to the highest bidder then so probably Google or whatever AI competitor.

Honestly having problems remembering the other AI companies without googling it. I recall MS, Facebook, Amazon, Google, and Anthropic.

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#357

Post by estimator7292 » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 6:29 PM UTC

Man, we can't even buy bare DRAM chips at work. Nobody will sell us anything. The whole US electronics industry has suddenly been put in a chokehold for.... perpetuating the AI bubble?

Man it'd be great if these AI assholes could stop absolutely trashing every single part of society, the economy, and the physical planet at large.

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#358

Post by ivanjermakov » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 6:33 PM UTC

lmc wrote: post #87

I just checked my go-to stores in Europe. Holy shit. I bought a 5200-speed 16GB DDR5 kit in October for 55 eur. Now it's selling for 240 eur. The 6000-speed model is now 390 eur.

I bought a post lease mini PC with 16GB 4 months ago for the todays price of its RAM.

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#359

Post by venturecruelty » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 6:33 PM UTC

Snoozus wrote: post #121

Maybe it's time we make a simple web page 100KB again? Is there some kind of CDN minification, adblocking and compression service? Maybe even server side rendering of websites? Then a smartphone would work fine with 1GB of RAM and everyone could be happy.

Maybe it's time to not let a single company buy all the RAM.

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#360

Post by anakaine » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 6:41 PM UTC

khannn wrote: post #356

atwrk wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it very telling that both Samsung and SK Hynix already stated that they don't plan to expand capacity - officially to prevent overcapacity in the future. It would also be plausable that both doubt OpenAI will follow through with the contract.

I sincerely hope that OpenAI goes down in flames with those DRAM contracts are going to the highest bidder then so probably Google or whatever AI competitor. Honestly having problems remembering the other AI companies without googling it. I recall MS, Facebook, Amazon, Google, and Anthropic.

They wont be going to highest bidders if they are under contract to produce at the claimed level, unless what you are referring to is the residual.