The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership • Hacker News Board

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#351

Post by rhetocj23 » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 5:14 PM UTC

forgotoldacc wrote: post #173

IlikeKitties wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think "we" have accidentally cracked language from a computational perspective. The embedding of knowledge is incidental and we're far away from anything that "Generally Intelligent", let alone Advanced in that. LLMs do tend to make documented knowledge very searchable which is nice. But if you use these models everyday to do work of some kind that becomes pretty obvious that they aren't nearly as intelligent as th…

They're about as smart as a person who's kind of decent at every field. If you're a pro, it's pretty clear when it's BSing. But if you're not, the answers are often close enough. And just like humans, they can be very confidently wrong. When any person tells us something, we assume there's some degree of imperfection in their statements. If a nurse at a hospital tells you the doctor's office is 3 doors down on the ri…

If anything, the main thing LLMs are showing is that the humans need to be pushed to up their game. And that desire to be better, I think, will yield an increase in supply of high-quality labour than what exists today. Ive personally witnessed so many 'so-so' people within firms who dont bring anything new to the table and focus on rent seeking expenditures (optics) who frankly deserve to be replaced by a machine.

E.g. I read all the time about gains from SWEs. But nobody questions how good of a SWE they even are. What proportion of SWEs can be deemed high quality?

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#352

Post by maqnius » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 5:19 PM UTC

czl wrote: post #318

yndoendo wrote: post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find there are to main ways to do this. 1) Look for spelling, grammar, and incorrect word usage; such as where vs were, typing out where our should be used. 2) Ask asinine questions that have no answers; _Why does the sun ravel around my finger in low quality gravity while dancing in the rain?_ ML likes to always come up with an answers no matter what. Human will shorten the conversation. It also is programmed to r…

Conventional LLM chatbots behave the way you describe because their goal during training is to as much as possible impersonate an intelligent assistant. Do you think this goal during training cannot be changed to impersonate someone normal such that you cannot detect you are chatting with an LLM? Before flight was understood some thought "magic" was involved. Do you think minds operate using "magic"? Are minds not ma…

> Do you think this goal during training cannot be changed to impersonate someone normal such that you cannot detect you are chatting with an LLM?

I don't think so, because LLMs hallucinate by design, which will always produce oddities.

> Before flight was understood some thought "magic" was involved. Do you think minds operate using "magic"? Are minds not machines? Their operation can not be duplicated?

Might involve something we don't grasp, but despite that: only because something moves through air it's not flying and will never be, just like a thrown stone.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#353

Post by AnimalMuppet » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 5:22 PM UTC

xwowsersx wrote: post #345

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OP said "will". That doesn't sound like "necessary, not sufficient" to me.

You're missing context and/or didn't read OP's comment. He said "will" with regards to reaching AGI. He said "only AGI can find" with regards to profit. It was the latter that this thread was addressing.

You're missing context and/or didn't read OP's comment. He said "because". It will happen because that's the only way to reach profit. That's why it will happen.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#354

Post by giancarlostoro » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 5:26 PM UTC

philipwhiuk wrote: post #79

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

Since we don't have an authoritative definition of what it means that companies will agree to, and tests like the turing test that must be passed in order to be considered AGI, I don't think we're anywhere near what we all in our brains think AGI is or could be. On the other hand, AI fatigue will continue until the next big thing takes the spotlight from AI for a while, until we reach true AGI (whatever that is).

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#355

Post by saalweachter » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 5:29 PM UTC

hackinthebochs wrote: post #348

JoelMcCracken wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what's super weird to me is how people seem to look at LLM output and see: "oh look it can think! but then it fails sometimes! how strange, we need to fix the bug that makes the thinking no workie" instead of: "oh, this is really weird. Its like a crazy advanced pattern recognition and completion engine that works better than I ever imagined such a thing could. But, it also clearly isn't _thinking_, so it seems like…

Why should LLM failures trump successes when determining if it thinks/understands? Yes, they have a lot of inhuman failure modes. But so what, they aren't human. Their training regimes are very dissimilar to ours and so we should expect alien failure modes owing to this. This doesn't strike me as good reason to think they don't understand anything in the face of examples that presumably demonstrate understanding.

Because there's no difference between a success and failure as far as an LLM is concerned. Nothing went wrong when the LLM produced a false statement. Nothing went right when the LLM produced a true statement.

It produced a statement. The lexical structure of the statement is highly congruent with its training data and the previous statements.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#356

Post by AvAn12 » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 5:31 PM UTC

sekai wrote: post #116

afavour wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's all so unfathomably stupid. And it's going to bring down an economy.

> It's all so unfathomably stupid. And it's going to bring down an economy. Dot-com bubble all over again

with extra stoopid

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#357

Post by AvAn12 » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 5:32 PM UTC

ossner wrote: post #52

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. What were they really expecting as an alternative? Anyone can "declare AGI" especially since it's an inherently ill-defined (and agruably undefinable) concept, it's strange that this is the first bullet point like this was the fruit of intensive deliberation. I don't fully understand what is going on in this market…

like Elon declaring FSD?

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#358

Post by eitally » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 5:35 PM UTC

ml-anon wrote: post #117

whizzter wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huh? Windows itself might have had it's heyday but MS is solidly at #2 for clouds only behind AWS with enterprise Windows shops that will be hard pressed to not use MS options if they go to the cloud (Google really has continued to fumble their cloud positions with their reputation for "killedbygoogle.com" nagging on everyones mind). The biggest real threat to MS position is the Trump administration pushing foreign c…

Watch this week. Amazon cloud growth has been terrible (Google and Microsoft remains >30%). Amazon have basically no good offerings for AI which is where gcp is bringing to eat their lunch. Anthropic moving to TPU for inference is a big big signal.

100% this. The AWS of today is going to be the Hetzner or Digital Ocean of the future. They'll still have hyperscale, but will not be seen as innovating on first party products or a leader in the AI managed services industry. And frankly, they are currently doing a shit job of even this, because Oracle is in the same category and OCI has been eating everyone's lunch (for the past two years!).

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#359

Post by eitally » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 5:40 PM UTC

Amekedl wrote: post #155

Regarding LLMs we're in a race to the bottom. Chinese models perform similarly with much higher efficiency; refer to kimi-k2 and plenty of others. ClopenAI is extremely overvalued, and AGI is not around the corner because among 20T+ tokens trained on it still generates 0 novel output. Try asking for ASP.NET Core .MapOpenAPI() instead of the pre .net9 swashbuckle version. You get nothing. It's not in the training data…

Eh... perhaps a race to the bottom on the fundamental research side, but no American company is going to try to build their own employee-facing front end to an open Chinese model when they can just license ChatGPT or Claude or Copilot or Gemini instead.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#360

Post by bongodongobob » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 5:40 PM UTC

I don't understand what MS is doing. The only AI available at work is M365 Copilot. It's absolutely terrible. Tiny context window, super guardrailed, can barely handle a 100 line PowerShell script. It's so so bad. I don't get it.