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After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

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Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#351

Post by cindyllm »

gsf_emergency_4 wrote: post #345
CuriouslyC wrote: post #335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm actually from a science, government and defense background, I've never worked in the valley. It might be possible that it can't succeed, but we don't know that and the evidence in terms of what happens if it fails is pretty compelling, so I think morality dictates we have to at least try, at least until we have more information or another path emerges.

The funny thing about disembodied superintelligence-- what if a collection of normal intelligences are fundamentally unable to extract net value from it? The first example that comes to mind is OpenAI's Sebastian Bubeck (& others) giving underwhelming examples to illustrate that GPT has surpassed human mathematicians. Or earlier, when SamA says that he has seen things you wouldn't believe, whereas the top replicant i…

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Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#352

Post by zirror »

bluesnowmonkey wrote: post #175
zirror wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But you need to verify everything unless it’s self evident. The number of times CoPilot (Sonnett 4) still hallucinates Browser APIs is astonishing. Imaging trying to learn something that can’t be checked easily, like Egyptian archeology or something.

You have to verify everything from human developers too. They hallucinate APIs when they try to write code from memory. So we have: - documentation - design reviews - type systems - code review - unit tests - continuous integration - integration testing - Q&A process - etc. It turns out when include all these processes, teams of error-prone human developers can produce complex working software. Mostly -- sometimes th…

Sure, I just gave the Browser API example as evidence that the 'hallucination' problem is not gone. OP said it's like "talking to a professor" and you can use it to learn college level stuff. This is where I disagree. I did not double check my professors or text books usually.

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#353

Post by vivzkestrel »

tuatoru wrote: post #237
dotnet00 wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reminds me of crypto/Web-3.0 hype. Lots of bluster about changing economic systems, offering people freedom and wealth, only to mostly be scams, and coming with too serious inherent drawbacks/costs to solve many of the big problems it promises to solve. In the end leaving the world changed, but not as meaningfully or positively as promised.

I have seen AI improve the quality and velocity of my wife's policy analysis dramatically. She doesn't like using Claude, but she accepts the necessity of doing so, and it reduces 3-month projects to 2-week projects. Claude is an excellent debating partner. Crypto? Blockchain? No-one sceptical could ever see the point of either, unless and until their transaction costs were less than that of cash. That... has not hap…

that was not the sentiment people had in 2017. they were almost certain every major visa card provider and payment gateway on the planet will scrap fiat cash and adopt crypto just like how they are all thinking about every major software company adopting AI. Dont forget hindsight bias

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#354

Post by myhf »

scellus wrote: post #17

He writes as if only datacenters and network equipment remain after the AI bubble bursts. Like there won't be any AI models anymore, nothing left after the big training runs and trillion-dollar R&D, and no inference served.

Is there a genuine use case for today's models, other than for identifying suckers? You can't even systematically apply an LLM to a list of text transformation tasks, because the ability to produce consistent results would make them less effective sycophants.

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#355

Post by notepad0x90 »

dcminter wrote: post #174
notepad0x90 wrote: post #133

The AI "bubble" won't burst just like the "internet bubble" didn't burst. the dotcom bubble was a result of investors jumping on the hype train all at once and then getting off of it all at once. Yes, investors will eventually find another hype train to jump on, but unlike 2000, we have tons of more retail investors and AI is also not a brand new tech sector, it's built upon the existing well established and "too big…

The dot com crash was a thing though. The bubble burst. It's just that there was real value there so some of the companies survived and prospered. Figuring out which was which was absolutely not possible at the time. Not many people foresaw Sun Microsystems as being a victim and nor was it obvious that Amazon would be a victor. I wouldn't bet my life savings on OpenAI.

Google, Microsoft, Apple, the value it's generating for them alone is enough of a demand to refute the "bubble" claims. the hype bubble will surely burst, but people are using it everyday. This is like saying the "crack cocaine" bubble will burst once people hear about its side effects (or alcohol lol). A reduction, sure. But not a crash.

I wouldn't be my life savings on OpenAI either FWIW.

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#356

Post by hattmall »

dcre wrote: post #234
crote wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> At some point things will mature and we’ll be left with plentiful, cheap, high end LLM access, on the back of the investment that has been made. Okay, and? What if the demand for LLMs plummets because people get disillusioned due to the failure to solve issues like hallucinations? If nobody is willing to buy, who cares how cheap it gets?

The idea that people will suddenly decide LLMs are useless after two years of exponential growth in usage is a fantasy.

That's essentially what was said about Tamagotchi in the 90s, and everyone of their "users" was a paying customer.

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#357

Post by hattmall »

pizzly wrote: post #233
CuriouslyC wrote: post #84

This is where we're headed: https://sibylline.dev/articles/2025-10-12-ai-is-too-big-to-f...

What about the 'openness' of AI development. When I say 'openness' of AI I mean in research papers, spying, former employees, etc. Wouldn't that mean that after a few months to years after AGI is discovered that the other country would also discover AGI due to benefiting from the obtaining the knowledge from the other side? Similar to how the Soviets did their first nuclear test less than 5 years after US did theirs…

Is there even a clear definition of AGI? How will one side or the other side know who is the "winner".

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#358

Post by inkyoto »

mike_hearn wrote: post #192
CuriouslyC wrote: post #84

This is where we're headed: https://sibylline.dev/articles/2025-10-12-ai-is-too-big-to-f...

Comparing to China is tricky because Chinese investment is almost by default bubbley in the sense of misallocating capital. That's what heavily state-directed economies tend to do and China's still a communist country. Especially they tend to over-invest in industrial capacity. China's massively overbuilt electricity grid and HSR network would be easily identified as a bubble if it were in the west, but when it's sta…

> […] because the Chinese government has started massively distorting the economy in favor of automation projects. It's widely known that one of the hardest parts of planning a factory is figuring out what to automate and what to use human labour for.

… or it is an early manoeuvre – a pre-emptive measure – to address the looming burden of an ageing population and a dearth of young labour that – according to several demographic models – China will confront by roughly 2050 and thereafter[0]. The problem is compounded by the enforced One-Child Policy in the past, the ascendance of a mainland middle class, and the escalating costs of child-rearing; whilst, culturally and historically, sons are favoured amongst the populace, producing a gender imbalance skewed towards males – many of whom will, in consequence, be unable to marry or to propagate their line.

According to the United Nations’ baseline projection – as cited in the AMRO report[1] – China’s population in 2050 is forecast at approximately 1.26 billion, with about 30 per cent aged 65 and over, whilst roughly 40 per cent will be aged 60 and over. This constitutes the more optimistic projection.

The Lancet scenario[2] is more gloomy and projects a 1 billion population by 2050, with 3 out of 10 being of the age of 65+.

It is entirely plausible that the Chinese government is distorting the economy; alternatively, it is attempting to mitigate – or to avert – an impending crisis by way of automation and robotics. The reality may well lie somewhere between these positions.

[0] https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2050/

[1] https://amro-asia.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/AN_Chinas-L...

[2] https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736%2820%2930677-2/...

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#359

Post by test6554 »

andy99 wrote: post #147

Cell phones have been through how many generations between the 80s and now? All the past generations are obsolete, but the investment in improving the technology (which is really a continuation of WWII era RF engineering) means we have readily available low cost miniature comms equipment. It doesn’t matter that the capex on individual phones was wasted. Same for GPUs/LLMs? At some point things will mature and we’ll b…

I'm worried all that cheap easily accessible LLM capacity will be serving us ads if we're lucky and subtly pushing us to use brands that pay money if we're not.

If AI says don't buy a subaru it's not worth the money, then Subaru pays attention and they are willing to pay money to get a better rec. Same for Univerisites. Students who see phrases like "If the degree is from brown flush it down" (ok hyperbole, but still) are going to pick different schools.

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