351–360 of 720 posts
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Google has google.com, youtube, chrome, android, gmail, google map etc ... I don't see OpenAI having a product close to that.
Google is older and many of the products you describe were acquisitions (inorganic growth).
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> Unlike railroads and fibre, all the best compute in 2025 will be lacklustre in 2027. I definitely don't think compute is anything like railroads and fibre, but I'm not so sure compute will continue it's efficiency gains of the past. Power consumption for these chips is climbing fast, lots of gains are from better hardware support for 8bit/4bit precision, I believe yields are getting harder to achieve as things get…
Unfortunately changing 2027 to 2030 doesn't make the math much better
Could you show me?
Early turbines didn't last that long. Even modern ones are only rated for a few decades.
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What is OpenAI's moat? There's plenty of competitors running their own models and tools. Sure, they have the ChatGPT name, but I don't see them massively out-competing the entire market unless the future model changes drastically improve over the 3->4->5 trajectory.
It feels similar to Google to me - what is (was) their moat? Basically slightly better results and strong brand recognition. In the later days maybe privileged data access. But why does nobody use Bing?
The only thing that has changed that status quo is the rise of audiovisual media and sites closing up so that Google can’t index them, which means web search lost a lot of relevance.
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Unfortunately the chips themselves probably won’t physically last much longer than that under the workloads they are being put to. So, yes, they won’t be totally obsolete as technology in 2028, but they may still have to be replaced.
Do we actually know how they're degrading? Are there still Pascals out there? If not, is it because they actual broke or because of poor performance? I understand it's tempting to say near 100% workload for multiple years = fast degradation, but what are the actual stats? Are you talking specifically about the actual compute chip or the whole compute system -- I know there's a big difference now with the systems Nvid…
Since they were run 24/7, there was rarely the kind of heat stress that kills cards (heating and cooling cycles).
I think people are massively underestimating the money they will come from ads in the future. They generated $4.3B in revenue without any advertising program to monetise their 700 million weekly active users, most of whom use the free product. Google earns essentially all of its revenue from ads, $264B in 2024. ChatGPT has more consumer trust than Google at this point, and numerous ways of inserting sponsored results…
I also wonder if this means that even paid tiers will get ads. Google's ad revenue is only ~$30 per user per year, yet there is no paid, ad-free Google Premium, even though lots of users would gladly pay way more than $30/year have an ad-free experience. There's no Google Premium because Google's ad revenue isn't uniformly distributed across users; it's heavily skewed towards the wealthiest users, exactly the users m…
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"...all the best compute in 2025 will be lacklustre in 2027": How does the compute (I assume you mean on PCs) of 2025 compare with the compute of 2023? Oh wait, the computer I'm typing this on was manufactured in 2020...
Neato. How’s that 1999 era laptop? Because 25 year old trains are still running and 25 year old train track is still almost new. It’s not the same and you know it.
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It'll be interesting to see the effect ads have on their trustworthiness. There's potential for it to end up worse than Google because sponsored content can blend in better and possibly not be reliably disclosed.
There is also the IMO not exactly settled question of whether an advertiser is comfortable handing over its marketing to an AI. Can any AI be sensibly and reliably instructed not to do product placement in inappropriate contexts?
Every token of context can drastically change the output. That's a big issue right now with Claude and their long conversation reminders.
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Do other professionals (lawyers, finance etc.) argue for reducing their own compensation with the same fervor that software engineers like to do? The market is great for us, let’s enjoy it while it lasts. The alternative is all those CEOs colluding and pushing the wages down, why is that any better?
Mmmmhm. You could have made this argument about 2 years ago, and it would have been credible. But you are making this argument now, when literally hundreds of thousands of engineers are let go in the last few years just in the US alone...? I am not sure how such an argument holds up in such circumstances...
The United states has tens of millions of skilled and competent and qualified people who can play basketball. 1000 of them get paid to play professionally.
10 of them are paid 9 figures and are incredible enough to be household names to non-basketball fans.
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I think this is directionally right but to nitpick…Google has way more trust than OpenAI right now and it’s not close. Acceleration is felt, not velocity.
Yeah, I agree with you. Between Android, Chrome, YouTube, Gmail (including mx.google.com), Docs/Drive, Meet/Chat, and Google Search, claiming that Google "isn't more trusted" is just ludicrous. People may not be happy they have to trust Alphabet. But they certainly do. And even when they insist they're Stallman, their friends do, their family does, their coworkers do, the businesses they interact with do, the schools…
Chrome and Google Search are still the gateway to the internet outside China. Android has over 75% market share of all mobile(!). YouTube is somewhat uniquely the video internet with Instagram and Tiktok not really occupying the same mindshare for "search" and long form.
People can say they don't "trust" Google but the fact is that if the world didn't trust Google, it never would have gotten to where it is and it would quickly unravel from here.
Sent from my Android (begrudgingly)