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Why are there so many rationalist cults?

asteriskmag.com

351–360 of 947 posts

Re: Why are there so many rationalist cults?

#351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People reading the book and being into it and telling other people. It’s also a hard book to read so it may be smart kids trying to signal being smart.

It’s hard to read because it’s tedious not because you need to be smart though.

tbf you have to have read it to know that!

I can't help but think it's probably the "favourite book" of a lot of people who haven't finished it though, possibly to a greater extent than any other secular tome (at least LOTR's lightweight fans watched the movies!).

I mean, if you've only read the blurb on the back it's the perfect book to signal your belief in free markets, conservative values and the American Dream: what could be more a more strident defence of your views than a book about capitalists going on strike to prove how much the world really needs them?! If you read the first few pages, it's satisfyingly pro-industry and contemptuous of liberal archetypes. If you trudge through the whole thing, it's not only tedious and odd but contains whole subplots devoted to dumping on core conservative values (religion bad, military bad, marriage vows not that important really, and a rather jaded take on actually extant capitalism) in between the philosopher pirates and jarring absence of private transport, and the resolution is an odd combination of a handful of geniuses running away to form a commune and the world being saved by a multi-hour speech about philosophy which has surprisingly little to say on market economics...

Re: Why are there so many rationalist cults?

#352
post #297
post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think it’s just (or even particularly) bad axioms, I think it’s that people tend to build up “logical” conclusions where they think each step is a watertight necessity that follows inevitably from its antecedents, but actually each step is a little bit leaky, leading to runaway growth in false confidence. Not that non-rationalists are any better at reasoning, but non-rationalists do at least benefit from some…

> non-rationalists do at least benefit from some intellectual humility The Islamists who took out the World Trade Center don’t strike me as particularly intellectually humble. If you reject reason, you are only left with force.

Islamic fundamentalism and cult rationalism are both involved in a “total commitment”, “all or nothing” type of thinking. The former is totally committed to a particular literal reading of scripture, the latter, to logical deduction from a set of chosen premises. Both modes of thinking have produced violent outcomes in the past.

Skepticism, in which no premise or truth claim is regarded as above dispute (or, that it is always permissible and even praiseworthy to suspend one’s judgment on a matter), is the better comparison with rationalism-fundamentalism. It is interesting that skepticism today is often associated with agnostic or atheist religious beliefs, but I consider many religious thinkers in history to have been skeptics par excellence when judged by the standard of their own time. E.g. William Ockham (of Ockham’s razor) was a 14C Franciscan friar (and a fascinating figure) who denied papal infallibility. I count Martin Luther as belonging to the history of skepticism as well, for example, as well as much of the humanist movement that returned to the original Greek sources for the Bible, from the Latin Vulgate translation by Jerome.

The history of ideas is fun to read about. I am hardly an expert, but you may be interested by the history of Aristotelian rationalism, which gained prominence in the medieval west largely through the works of Averroes, a 12C Muslim philosopher who heavily favored Aristotle. In 13C, Thomas Aquinus wrote a definitive Catholic systematic theology, rejecting Averroes but embracing Aristotle. To this day, Catholic theology is still essentially Aristotelian.

Re: Why are there so many rationalist cults?

#353

A problem with this whole mindset is that humans, all of us, are only quasi-rational beings. We all use System 1 ("The Elephant") and System 2 ("The Rider") thinking instinctively. So if you end up in deep denial about your own capacity for irrationality, I guess it stands to reason you could end up getting led down some deep dark rabbit holes.

Some of the most irrational people I've met were those who claimed to make all their decisions rationally, based on facts and logic. They're just very good at rationalizing, and since they've pre-defined their beliefs as rational, they never have to examine where else they might come from. The rest of us at least have a chance of thinking, "Wait, am I fooling myself here?"

Re: Why are there so many rationalist cults?

#354

One of a few issues I have with groups like these, is that they often confidently and aggressively spew a set of beliefs that on their face logically follow from one another, until you realize they are built on a set of axioms that are either entirely untested or outright nonsense. This is common everywhere, but I feel especially pronounced in communities like this. It also involves quite a bit of navel gazing that m…

I find Yudowsky-style rationalists morbidly fascinating in the same way as Scientologists and other cults. Probably because they seem to genuinely believe they're living in a sci-fi story. I read a lot of their stuff, probably too much, even though I find it mostly ridiculous. The biggest nonsense axiom I see in the AI-cult rationalist world is recursive self-improvement. It's the classic reason superintelligence tak…

The built in assumptions are always interesting to me, especially as it relates to intelligence. I find many of them (though not all), are organized around a series of fundamental beliefs that are very rarely challenged within these communities. I should initially mention that I don't think everyone in these communities believes these things, of course, but I think there's often a default set of assumptions going into conversations in these spaces that holds these axioms. These beliefs more or less seem to be as follows:

1) They believe that there exists a singular factor to intelligence in humans which largely explains capability in every domain (a super g factor, effectively).

2) They believe that this factor is innate, highly biologically regulated, and a static factor about a person(Someone who is high IQ in their minds must have been a high achieving child, must be very capable as an adult, these are the baseline assumptions). There is potentially belief that this can be shifted in certain directions, but broadly there is an assumption that you either have it or you don't, there is no feeling of it as something that could be taught or developed without pharmaceutical intervention or some other method.

3) There is also broadly a belief that this factor is at least fairly accurately measured by modern psychometric IQ tests and educational achievement, and that this factor is a continuous measurement with no bounds on it (You can always be smarter in some way, there is no max smartness in this worldview).

These are things that certainly could be true, and perhaps I haven't read enough into the supporting evidence for them but broadly I don't see enough evidence to have them as core axioms the way many people in the community do.

More to your point though, when you think of the world from those sorts of axioms above, you can see why an obsession would develop with the concept of a certain type of intelligence being recursively improving. A person who has become convinced of their moral placement within a societal hierarchy based on their innate intellectual capability has to grapple with the fact that there could be artificial systems which score higher on the IQ tests than them, and if those IQ tests are valid measurements of this super intelligence factor in their view, then it means that the artificial system has a higher "ranking" than them.

Additionally, in the mind of someone who has internalized these axioms, there is no vagueness about increasing intelligence! For them, intelligence is the animating factor behind all capability, it has a central place in their mind as who they are and the explanatory factor behind all outcomes. There is no real distinction between capability in one domain or another mentally in this model, there is just how powerful a given brain is. Having the singular factor of intelligence in this mental model means being able to solve more difficult problems, and lack of intelligence is the only barrier between those problems being solved vs unsolved. For example, there's a common belief among certain groups among the online tech world that all governmental issues would be solved if we just had enough "high-IQ people" in charge of things irrespective of their lack of domain expertise. I don't think this has been particularly well borne out by recent experiments, however. This also touches on what you mentioned in terms of an AI system potentially maximizing the "wrong types of intelligence", where there isn't a space in this worldview for a wrong type of intelligence.

Re: Why are there so many rationalist cults?

#355

One of a few issues I have with groups like these, is that they often confidently and aggressively spew a set of beliefs that on their face logically follow from one another, until you realize they are built on a set of axioms that are either entirely untested or outright nonsense. This is common everywhere, but I feel especially pronounced in communities like this. It also involves quite a bit of navel gazing that m…

I find Yudowsky-style rationalists morbidly fascinating in the same way as Scientologists and other cults. Probably because they seem to genuinely believe they're living in a sci-fi story. I read a lot of their stuff, probably too much, even though I find it mostly ridiculous. The biggest nonsense axiom I see in the AI-cult rationalist world is recursive self-improvement. It's the classic reason superintelligence tak…

  > The biggest nonsense axiom I see in the AI-cult rationalist world is recursive self-improvement. 
This is also the weirdest thing and I don't think they even know the assumption they are making. It makes the assumption that there is infinite knowledge to be had. It also ignores the reality that in reality we have exceptionally strong indications that accuracy (truth, knowledge, whatever you want to call it) has exponential growth in complexity. These may be wrong assumptions, but we at least have evidence for them, and much more for the latter. So if objective truth exists, then that intelligence gap is very very different. One way they could be right there is for this to be an S-curve and for us humans to be at the very bottom there. That seems unlikely, though very possible. But they always treat this as linear or exponential as if our understanding to the AI will be like an ant trying to understand us.

The other weird assumption I hear is about how it'll just kill us all. The vast majority of smart people I know are very peaceful. They aren't even seeking power of wealth. They're too busy thinking about things and trying to figure everything out. They're much happier in front of a chalk board than sitting on a yacht. And humans ourselves are incredibly passionate towards other creatures. Maybe we learned this because coalitions are a incredibly powerful thing, but truth is that if I could talk to an ant I'd choose that over laying traps. Really that would be so much easier too! I'd even rather dig a small hole to get them started somewhere else than drive down to the store and do all that. A few shovels in the ground is less work and I'd ask them to not come back and tell others.

Granted, none of this is absolutely certain. It'd be naive to assume that we know! But it seems like these cults are operating on the premise that they do know and that these outcomes are certain. It seems to just be preying on fear and uncertainty. Hell, even Altman does this, ignoring risk and concern of existing systems by shifting focus to "an even greater risk" that he himself is working towards (You can't simultaneously maximize speed and safety). Which, weirdly enough might fulfill their own prophesies. The AI doesn't have to become sentient but if it is trained on lots of writings about how AI turns evil and destroys everyone then isn't that going to make a dumb AI that can't tell fact from fiction more likely to just do those things?

Re: Why are there so many rationalist cults?

#356
post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An interesting point you make there — one would assume that if recursive self-improvement were a thing, Nature would have already lead humans into that "hall of mirrors".

There's a variant of this that argues that humans are already as intelligent as it's possible to be. Because if it's possible to be more intelligent, why aren't we? And a slightly more reasonable variant that argues that we're already as intelligent as it's useful to be.

"Because if it's possible to be more intelligent, why aren't we?"

Because deep abstract thoughts about the nature of the universe and elaborate deep thinking were maybe not as useful while we were chasing lions and buffaloes with a spear?

We just had to be smarter then them. Which included finding out that tools were great. Learning about the habits of the prey and optmize hunting success. Those who were smarter in that capacity had a greater chance of reproducing. Those who just exceeded in thinking likely did not lived that long.

Re: Why are there so many rationalist cults?

#357
post #95

> One is Black Lotus, a Burning Man camp led by alleged rapist Brent Dill, which developed a metaphysical system based on the tabletop roleplaying game Mage the Ascension. What the actual f. This is such an insane thing to read and understand what it means that i might need to go and sit in silence for the rest of the day. How did we get to this place with people going completely nuts like this?

> How did we get to this place with people going completely nuts like this? Ayahuasca?

Nah I did Ayahuasca and I'm an empathetic person who most would consider normal or at least well-adjusted. If it's drug related it would most definitely be something else.

I’m inclined to believe your upbringing plays a much larger role.

Re: Why are there so many rationalist cults?

#358
post #231

It's amphetamine. All of these people are constantly tweaking. They're annoying people to begin with, but they're all constantly yakked up and won't stop babbling. It's really obvious, I don't know why it isn't highlighted more in all these post Ziz articles.

[deleted]

Re: Why are there so many rationalist cults?

#359
post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An interesting point you make there — one would assume that if recursive self-improvement were a thing, Nature would have already lead humans into that "hall of mirrors".

There's a variant of this that argues that humans are already as intelligent as it's possible to be. Because if it's possible to be more intelligent, why aren't we? And a slightly more reasonable variant that argues that we're already as intelligent as it's useful to be.

I don't think the logic follows here. Nor does it match evidence.

The premise is ignorant of time. It is also ignorant of the fact that we know there's a lot of things we don't know. That's all before we consider other factors like if there are limits and physical barriers or many other things.

Re: Why are there so many rationalist cults?

#360
post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think it’s just (or even particularly) bad axioms, I think it’s that people tend to build up “logical” conclusions where they think each step is a watertight necessity that follows inevitably from its antecedents, but actually each step is a little bit leaky, leading to runaway growth in false confidence. Not that non-rationalists are any better at reasoning, but non-rationalists do at least benefit from some…

As a former mechanical engineer, I visualize this phenomenon like a "tolerance stackup". Effectively meaning that for each part you add to the chain, you accumulate error. If you're not damn careful, your assembly of parts (or conclusions) will fail to measure up to expectations.

I like this approach. Also having dipped my toes in the engineering world (professionally) I think it naturally follows that you should be constantly rechecking your designs. Those tolerances were fine to begin with, but are they now that things have changed? It also makes you think about failure modes. What can make this all come down and if it does what way will it fail? Which is really useful because you can then leverage this to design things to fail in certain ways and now you got a testable hypothesis. It won't create proof, but it at least helps in finding flaws.
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