Earlier quoted context omitted.
Drafting’s a factor on many climbs at the crazy speeds they achieve, and it can be enough of a benefit for a slightly slower rider to keep up with a slightly faster one. That’s why it’s rare that people ride away from others on a climb without an attack to break the draft. A few hundred extra watts for a few seconds could be the difference between a failed attack and a stellar attack, then allowing the attacking ride…
You're forgetting all the unsuccessful attacks where the attacker is simply swallowed back by a faster pace of the racers left behind by the attack. I can see situation advantage for a very strong, title contending, competitor, but honestly that sounds too niche to be really useful. Also: > That’s why it’s rare that people ride away from others on a climb without an attack to break the draft. Did you watch Tour de Fr…
I'm thinking more of a breakaway situation - a group of roughly equivalent riders, all knackered after a hard day in the breakaway, all vying for the stage win. If someone gets a gap, 90% of the time 'group two mentality' takes over and they don't organise a successful chase. Giving one of those riders an extra boost of watts for a few seconds for that attack could make all of the difference.
You're right that it won't always work, but these things are a numbers game - most of the time, breakaways are swallowed up, and even when a breakaway rider wins, (obvs) the rest of them don't win. And yet people still join the breakaway, to try to realise that tiny% chance of winning. Going from 5% to 10% win probability isn't much overall, but it's still doubling your chance.