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The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

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Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#351

Post by defrost »

oceanplexian wrote: post #347
pizzly wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its definitely de-globalizing USA's trade but I don't think it will de-globalize the rest of the world's trade. One method for countries to combat US's tariffs is to reduce trade barriers between themselves thus reducing the barriers to sell their goods to other countries instead of US. EU and China just had an initial conversation regarding just this.

I don’t see that happening since the US has historically been the least protectionist of nations. The EU loves protectionism. The single market is totally dysfunctional with a recent study saying it was equivalent to a 45% tariff between member states for manufacturing, a 110% for services. If this is the cohort you expect to save the world economy with free trade I certainly wouldn’t be betting real money on it.

Historically, the United States of America pursued a protectionist policy from the beginning of the 19th century until the middle of the 20th century.

Between 1861 and 1933, they had one of the highest average tariff rates on manufactured imports in the world. After 1942, the U.S. began to promote worldwide free trade.

Within the EU single market, there are no tariffs or customs duties between member states for manufactured goods, services, capital, and people, fostering free movement and trade.

The report(?) you a paraphrasing badly talked about within Europe (not the EU) and referred to figures between, say, Germany and Russia.

\? At a guess (thanks for not citing the report) you meant the IMF Regional Economic Outlook report titled “Europe: A Recovery Short of Europe’s Full Potential” (October 2024) ?

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#352

Post by watwut »

drivebyhooting wrote: post #155
jopsen wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If only the US had allies. But I guess it's hard to count on them when you're actively threading invasion! A war with China won't be won with manufacturing. It'll be won by having allies. If it actually comes to pass, you'll probably declined fighting the hot war, and opt for a cold one. But without allies it'll get real cold.

The same allies that buy Russian energy? Yes such strategic masterminds.

If that is the strongest attack yoi have, you don't have much. At least they are not allying themselves with Russia, unlike America.

Canada could have been an ally too ... now it mostly hates USA.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#353

Post by mmooss »

WalterBright wrote: post #344
jocaal wrote: post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"A society that puts equality before freedom will get neither. A society that puts freedom before equality will get a high degree of both." - Milton Friedman

Good one! Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn wrote something similar: Enforcing equity means nobody has freedom. When people are free, there is no equity.

You might want to read up on Solzhenitsyn. Wrote some very important books, but not someone you want to quote on ethics.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#354

Post by forgetfreeman »

mmooss wrote: post #266
lesuorac wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's an economic theory - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercantilism The general idea is that when you buy stuff you're losing wealth so if you never buy anything then you never get poorer. Since we constantly dig gold up from the ground we still get richer over time even if nobody buys our stuff. This is also why its importantly to gain colonies (Greenland/ Canada) or mineral rights from other countries so that the…

> historically very popular When? Not for a long time. Slavery and witchcraft were historically very popular ... > when you buy stuff you're losing wealth That's a incredible failure of understanding. I can't believe that's the basis of mercantilism. Why would anyone buy something? If you buy a house for $100,000, your wealth remains the same - you replace $100,000 in cash with a $100,000 house (ignoring complexities…

"The economy works because people make these value-increasing transactions. I take $10 of inputs, manufacture $20 worth of output, and sell it to you for $15."

You pretty much nailed the arguments in favor of trade protectionism right there. Import cheap unprocessed raw materials, export expensive finished goods, capture the majority of value created in the process.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#355

Post by protocolture »

oceanplexian wrote: post #347
pizzly wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its definitely de-globalizing USA's trade but I don't think it will de-globalize the rest of the world's trade. One method for countries to combat US's tariffs is to reduce trade barriers between themselves thus reducing the barriers to sell their goods to other countries instead of US. EU and China just had an initial conversation regarding just this.

I don’t see that happening since the US has historically been the least protectionist of nations. The EU loves protectionism. The single market is totally dysfunctional with a recent study saying it was equivalent to a 45% tariff between member states for manufacturing, a 110% for services. If this is the cohort you expect to save the world economy with free trade I certainly wouldn’t be betting real money on it.

I mean, China, Japan and South Korea are sitting down to determine a possible opening of markets between them.

I would have thought Japan and China hated each other more than they hated Trump but it seems otherwise.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#356

Post by briandear »

jmward01 wrote: post #142

I keep seeing people advocating that the idea that we should build everything, and every piece or everything, here is a good one. Why? Is this just an isolationist dream? The reductive, absurd, extreme of this is why don't individual people go out and build all their own stuff like cars and houses. Let's all go out and learn how to mine and refine metal ore so we can get started on building the family sedan! There is…

Building everything shouldn’t be the goal, however, having a strategic capability shouldn’t be overlooked either. There is also the question of supply chain resilience. Covid taught us that the whims of governments can choke up the entire system.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#357

Post by protocolture »

rainsford wrote: post #160
jackyinger wrote: post #4

How’s basing the US economy on services looking now? My brother is an extremely skilled machinist, the sort who could build machine tools if he had the resources. And let me tell you there ain’t many of them, especially not young ones. Why? Because the US has emphasized college as the only respectable education path, as well as the only path to well paid jobs. That’s how you end up with a manufacturing industry full…

> Because the US has emphasized college as the only respectable education path, as well as the only path to well paid jobs. There's this idea that the shift to college and white collar jobs was some artificial push, but it seems more like an incredibly natural and obvious move to me. A lot of blue collar work is just not super great from a working conditions and pay perspective and while not every white collar job is…

In the UK and Australia there were huge incentives. I recall reading that the peak of the damage to the UK was in the late 90s early 00s when all the older tradesmen began retiring and basic shit like plumbing because scarce. Largely blamed on thatcher.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#358

Post by oceanplexian »

rat87 wrote: post #335
dcrazy wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Were they economic interdependencies or high-level political alliances? The E.U. is clearly an example of the economic interdependency theory. It evolved in post-WW2 Europe from the European Coal and Steel Community. Mineral richness is why the Saarland was given to France after WW2. The idea is that economic integration will lead to political integration from the ground up. My understanding of the pre-WW1 alliances…

I disagree the EU is peaceful because of democratic peace theory and because of the political union not because of trade. If it was just economic and some of those countries were authoritarian I could easily border conflicts turning into wars

It really hasn’t been particularly peaceful.

The last dictatorship was in the 1970s? The last World War the 40s? The US might have had a civil war but it went in and came out the other side with the same borders, government, and constitution. Still going strong since the 18th century.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#359

Post by cryptonector »

lesuorac wrote: post #158
jmward01 wrote: post #142

I keep seeing people advocating that the idea that we should build everything, and every piece or everything, here is a good one. Why? Is this just an isolationist dream? The reductive, absurd, extreme of this is why don't individual people go out and build all their own stuff like cars and houses. Let's all go out and learn how to mine and refine metal ore so we can get started on building the family sedan! There is…

It's an economic theory - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercantilism The general idea is that when you buy stuff you're losing wealth so if you never buy anything then you never get poorer. Since we constantly dig gold up from the ground we still get richer over time even if nobody buys our stuff. This is also why its importantly to gain colonies (Greenland/ Canada) or mineral rights from other countries so that the…

Mercantilism is certainly what we have today, with much of the world exporting to one perennial importer. Perhaps Trump means to reverse that state of affairs (i.e., make the U.S. mercantilist), which I surmise from your comment that you think would be bad (certainly I think it would be bad!), or perhaps he means to not have mercantilism at all, which I surmise you think would be good.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#360

Post by forgetfreeman »

WalterBright wrote: post #341
BoiledCabbage wrote: post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Wealth is not concentrated in a market society. Respectfully, you should do some reading of basic economics. Absent of external forces to correct for it, wealth absolutely concentrates in unregulated markets.

For economics, I prefer history to academic theory. (But I have read Friedman's "Monetary History of the United States", and books by economist C. Northcote Parkinson, "Capitalism" by Reisman, etc. My dad also had a degree in economics from MIT and an MBA from Harvard and a doctorate in economicis and taught finance in college. We had many many long talks about economics. And yeah, I did take econ 101 at Caltech from…

"There was no "transfer" of wealth from the poor people to the wealthy (there couldn't have been, because they, being poor, didn't have wealth)."

You're ignoring value created through labor. The poor may not have wealth but they have their labor to sell on the open market. The returns on that exchange have been steadily declining since the post-war period thanks to flat wages and inflation. Meanwhile increases in productivity (as demonstrated by increases in GDP) by definition have to go somewhere. Since it isn't going into working folks savings accounts then it's accumulating somewhere. Also worth considering, the middle class has been declining for the last 40 years.

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