Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

wsj.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

351–360 of 1001 posts

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#351

Post by _t9ow »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #297
ethbr1 wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They only need to make this appear real for 4, maybe 2 years, and can then reevaluate. I'd guess they looked at their options and decided this was the best hedge.

> they only need to make this appear real for 4, maybe 2 years, and can then reevaluate Taipei needs nukes. There simply isn’t another guarantor of sovereign security anymore.

> Taipei needs nukes

This essay explains very lucidly why it's not as straightforward as you think: https://taipology.substack.com/p/no-nukes-are-not-going-to-s...

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#352

Post by DeathArrow »

deagle50 wrote: post #288
justahuman74 wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A vast nuclear weapons program is cheaper than $100b

It would not go unnoticed and would pretty much guarantee invasion.

I think US can try to covertly move some hundreds of nuclear missiles in Taiwan and succeed until China notices.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#353

Post by echoangle »

rjzzleep wrote: post #348
tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

Russia has a fraction of the industrial capacity of China. Russia and Ukraine share several borders with multiple NATO countries, and Ukraine had integrated rail networks. Nevertheless Russia took 4 times the size of Taiwan and is taking more day by day. Anyone that understands basic logistics and can read a map knows that this is not winnable. Not only that, but the undersecretary of state is the guy that advocated…

Are you talking about a different Taiwan? In what world is the economy of Taiwan stagnating for decades?

Look at the growth in GDP and GDP per capita here and tell me that’s stagnation:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Taiwan

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#354

Post by re-thc »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #299
re-thc wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If I were China I wonder if China actually benefits from this drama and rather not claim Taiwan (despite what they say out loud). It's currently: - the best place to show military might (the "drills") - the best place to continue a proxy war with the US / EU - replaces Hong Kong as the gray area to do business

> wonder if China actually benefits from this drama and rather not claim Taiwan China does. Xi does not. Trump has been the bailout to Xi that China’s wolf warriors and Putin were to America after the Iraq & Afghanistan wars.

> China does. Xi does not.

At the end of the day the leadership is who makes the decisions. The notion of a "country" does not.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#355

Post by _t9ow »

agumonkey wrote: post #238
ethbr1 wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They only need to make this appear real for 4, maybe 2 years, and can then reevaluate. I'd guess they looked at their options and decided this was the best hedge.

Fair point. I only worry that trump might decide to play them both ways.. extort investments for protection, then reneg the help unilaterally on a whim.

> extort investments for protection, then reneg the help unilaterally on a whim

I would be surprised if he doesn't do this, judging by his long track record of not paying his contractors and business partners after receiving their goods and services.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#356

Post by DeathArrow »

pj_mukh wrote: post #160
tyre wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Our continued protection of you is contingent on your investment in us”. Taiwan is hugely reliant on US defense guarantees. The US has a protectionist president who likes big numbers in announcements and a base riled up about American production capacity. Long-term this is bad for Taiwan since it reduces its leverage with the US in administrations with short-term geopolitics (or no real geopolitical talent.) In the…

Curious why Taiwan would sign onto this, knowing how Ukraine is being treated vis a vis mineral rights. I realize Taiwan doesn't have any other options, but a "verbal offer" of future security guarantees from the Trump Admin aren't worth anything.

>a "verbal offer" of future security guarantees from the Trump Admin aren't worth anything.

They still think it's worth more than surrendering now to China.

While US is dependant of Taiwanese fabs, they will intervene if China tries to occupy Taiwan. But US is working towards not relying on Taiwan's fans, so US based security won't last long.

In the end, they'll either have to surrender or build nuclear deterrent fast and unnoticed.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#357

Post by PeterStuer »

Isn't this bad news for Intel? Personally I'not sure. An on shore TSMC will certainly help Intel with easier access to knowledge and experienced researchers and workers. OTOH having a US based alternative to their fabs makes them less needed for a strategic pov.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#358

Post by petesergeant »

DeathArrow wrote: post #349
petesergeant wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> across the ocean It is, but it also isn't, given the US forces on Okinawa, and also just generally in the region. The US military is not a force that exists for homeland defense, it's a force designed purely to project power across the ocean. > engage militarily This can mean a lot of things though. A steady flow of matériel and intelligence given to an island that's basically a giant and highly-defended mountain-r…

>The US military is not a force that exists for homeland defense, it's a force designed purely to project power across the ocean How will they project power? With aircraft carriers? China can destroy those in hours once in close range. China has more ships than US and 100x shipbuilding capacity.

> How will they project power

https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/16h4gw8/us_militar...

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#359

Post by DeathArrow »

pj_mukh wrote: post #228
ein0p wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think there are any multi-trillion dollar deposits of any "minerals" there. If there were, Ukraine wouldn't be so poor. Even pre-war it was the poorest country in Europe per capita. One can argue that it was mostly due to their insane levels of corruption, but then again, if there were any multi-trillion dollar deposits of anything there, Western investors (including Hunter Biden, no doubt) would be all over…

"Moreover, a lot of other countries will totally provide "lethal aid" and intelligence to China, if it needs it, in hopes of taking the hegemon down a few pegs." This seems...not true. The Phillipines especially would like a word. Most of China's neighbors are begging for more American Hegemony (America is just not good at it anymore). China's industrial prowess is clear, but it's also true that. China (esp the CCP)…

>The Phillipines especially would like a word.

BRICS will support China. Most of the unaligned countries will do the same.

It will be US, EU, Canada, Australia, Japan, Philippines against the rest of the world.

And it's not so much about military might as is about industrial capacity, raw materials and logistics.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#360

Post by throw84949499 »

tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

Why would China even invide Taiwan? It would destroy "their" infrastructure and kill "their" people! There are much better ways to remove US influence from Taiwan!

They can just put sanctions or even blockade Taiwan. And if China puts sanctions on US, and dumps its USD reserves, it can destroy US economy.

US is crazy about proxies fighting their "enemies" for them. This type of thinking needs to stop! This is not cold war anymore.

Post reply on HN