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I don't want to come off too harsh here -- not a personal attack -- but I genuinely don't understand why folks are sharing the output from LLMs. It's usually too long, it's not written by a human (which is why I came to HN), and I could have trivially asked an LLM myself!
Imagine if every forum was just screenshots of google search results.
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By 'solve' do you mean 'write a limerick about'?
You don’t think we will have AGI or even ASI by then to have significantly improved tech? I would be we will
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Knowing if it will hit is a lot easier than knowing where. Knowing where, will depend on the angle of impact - if came basically straight in (tangent to the surface) we can be pretty accurate, but the more shallow the angle the harder it will be. With a shallow angle, we'll probably be able to tell the latitude pretty well, but not the longitude.
It must be easy to determine which face of the earth it strikes though...?
I work on the Near Earth Object Surveyor space telescope (NEO Surveyor) writing simulation code which predicts which objects we will see. This one has drummed up a bit of interest due to its (relatively) high chance of impact. I actually spent quite a bit of time yesterday digging through archive images trying trying to see if it was spotted on some previous times it came by the Earth (no luck unfortunately). Since w…
Could we stick an rtg-powered tracking beacon on it during its next flyby so that we can better calculate its orbit?
[0] I haven’t tried to calculate how much this would offset the apparent velocity, but it seems very likely to at least be detectable.
Maybe it will start climbing in probability, giving us a chance to reflect, and to improve our ways. Since, if we're already doing Nazi salutes at a US Presidential inauguration, less than 100 years after we'd learned that Nazis are pure evil, then I'd understand if some higher power was ready to hit the reset button. Maybe tardigrades would evolve better. (ProTip: Be sure to send a second asteroid, to Mars, ahead of…
That salute stuff is just to distract people, maybe it was even carefully planned. I'd rather focus on Bitcoin, AI and Blockchain scams as well as nepotism. The official excuse for Ramaswamy's DOGE exit is that Musk has a tech approach to solving (?) the efficiency problems: https://www.newsweek.com/vivek-ramaswamy-asked-if-elon-musk-... Expect a lot of blockchain nonsense infiltrating the government, perhaps even a…
I know they are looting the nation. I know they are trying to create their techno-fuedal crypto shithole empire where only Musk and Thiel get to choose who knows and does what.
But they are STILL building internment camps and already have had planeloads of brown people flown to random countries.
Another reminder that Nazis and Facists are utterly inefficient at anything because of their incompetence and stupidity. The price we paid to fly those brown people out of our country could have bought them all first class tickets on civilian planes in the fucking free market.
Nazi Germany and Facist Italy were both staggeringly stupid, incompetent, inefficient, and run by people who spent every day insisting they knew better than anyone around them, and literally criminalized proving them wrong. "At least Mussolini made the trains run on time" was always false. Empirically, the trains didn't run very well.
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It's actually the opposite. Calculating an asteroid impact is much easier because it primarily involves basic Newtonian physics. In contrast, the climate is a chaotic system, making long-term predictions far more complex.
I don't know how it's opposite. There's some complex guesstimating on where an asteroid will hit. We roughly know its size. We roughly know its composition. We roughly know its speed. We can give a +/- range where the impact area will be. That's not any different than how hurricane spaghetti models do.
Working link: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2024%20Y... 8.1 megatons of kinetic energy. According to the Torino rating, only risk of “localized destruction” (less than “regional devastation”): https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/torino_scale.html
imagine if you could channel that much kinetic energy into a propulsion system for interstellar travel
Completely out of my domain and seat of pants rationing here, but although the impact probability is 1%, aren't we far far more certain about the /time/ at which it would strike earth? Could humanity collectively just migrate to the side of the world that will be shielded for a day?
Perhaps this would be a good opportunity to test out asteroid deflection technologies? We've got multiple orbital refueling architectures (New Glenn, Starship...) slated to come online in the next few years, so it should be easier to pack more oomph.