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Can solar costs keep shrinking?

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Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#351

Post by zamadatix »

llsf wrote: post #335
rtkwe wrote: post #2

I'm having a hard time getting past the assumption in the article that energy use is tied directly to GDP per capita and that by not following the 7% growth of the Henry Adams Curve we're somehow below where we should/could be as a country. That embeds so many assumptions about the economy and where GDP comes from, the decoupling seems more likely to be from the transition from manufacturing and other energy heavy se…

Energy is the fuel for machines. And machines build more and faster than humans. To increase productivity, we need more machines, and so more energy. If energy was 10 times cheaper than currently and still available (no shortage) then we would automate more tasks and increase the global productivity. We could mine more, build more, to train/run more LLMs. GDP is tied to energy price and availability. It is likely the…

> Energy is the fuel for machines. And machines build more and faster than humans

Sure.

> To increase productivity, we need more machines,

That is just one way to increase productivity. You can also make more efficient machines, come up with more efficient production processes, find alternatives to existing products that are more useful for a given task per quantity, and similar kinds of concepts. This is the point GP was making (there are more ways production changes than increasing energy used), not that energy is completely unrelated to production as a whole.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#352

Post by narrator »

sitkack wrote: post #198
tails4e wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The price to get solar installed in the US is insanely high compared to the cost of the materials. I've seen my extended family get quotes north of 40k for modest installs. I got a modest system with batter for around 9k in the EU, and id say I'd install the same for under 5k at today's prices.

A kitchen remodel in a high income city in the US is 75k-100k for something basic. The lopsidedness of US prices for light construction projects is a huge problem.

You got to get multiple bids. I had a small remodel job. I got three bids. One was for 3x the lowest bid, one was about double the lowest bid. After evaluating, I contracted with the company that did the middle bid and they did a great job. Not getting multiple bids on something that pricey is really financially irresponsible, IMHO.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#353

Post by gcanyon »

caymanjim wrote: post #240
kingkongjaffa wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I intend to buy undeveloped land far from civilization I'm always intrigued by this notion, I know plenty of Americans have this kind of plan, but it's never quite as remote as they think, because, y'know you're still in America somewhere. Unless you're thinking of somewhere in northern Canada. I'd love to know where is considered 'far from civilization' on the continental US.

> I'd love to know where is considered 'far from civilization' on the continental US. There are many interpretations and levels of remoteness. In my case, I want to be away from the sights and sounds and crowds of anything that would be considered urban or suburban. My prime criteria is that I don't want to see another person unless I choose to. I don't want to see a road with cars on it, I don't want to see another…

>don't want to be more than an hour away from urgent care

If it's an hour away, does it really qualify as "urgent" care?

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#354

Post by DaoVeles »

pjc50 wrote: post #222
kingkongjaffa wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I intend to buy undeveloped land far from civilization I'm always intrigued by this notion, I know plenty of Americans have this kind of plan, but it's never quite as remote as they think, because, y'know you're still in America somewhere. Unless you're thinking of somewhere in northern Canada. I'd love to know where is considered 'far from civilization' on the continental US.

Far from "civilization", but still surrounded by lawfulness so you don't have to deal with warlords taking your solar panels.

There a few people I know who live off grid, they all say the same thing. The longer you are out there the closer to 100% you will be challenged for your stuff. Be it a semi-local crazy, warlord, gypsies or cult few have heard of - they all want resources that are closer than the alternative and they are aware that you are the only defense.

Another factor of this living is that once the honeymoon period wears off, there is a dawning on many people that their tolerance for failure has dropped significantly. A break down of a vehicle can become a very big issue very fast when the nearest town is an hour away.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#355

Post by renewiltord »

lanstin wrote: post #294
caymanjim wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'd love to know where is considered 'far from civilization' on the continental US. There are many interpretations and levels of remoteness. In my case, I want to be away from the sights and sounds and crowds of anything that would be considered urban or suburban. My prime criteria is that I don't want to see another person unless I choose to. I don't want to see a road with cars on it, I don't want to see another…

I find this fascinating. It really does take a variety of people to make up a culture. My ideal living situation includes being able to see someone I know every time I walk out side my home, being able to walk to a bagel shop, a grocery store, a post office, a train station, and ideally a library and bike shop and parks. It would be boring if we were all like me and clumped together.

This is why I live in SOMA where my friends are next door. But I also want a roughly remote but not too remote experience because I want my children to explore freely without cars around and busybodies who don't appreciate children being free. They may climb trees when they are seven and fall off and break their noses. They may fall off their bicycles and scrape their flesh to the bone. I want them to have my childhood because I think that's what makes me so resilient compared to so many other people.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#356

Post by neltnerb »

caymanjim wrote: post #204

I spend four months of the year traveling in an RV. Two years ago, I budgeted over $6000 for my desired solar setup (at least 1200Ah of battery, at least 2400W of solar, plus various controllers and other components). It was expensive enough for me to hold off, and more importantly, I didn't have the space on my current RV for the solar panels. In just the two years since then, prices on batteries and panels have dro…

The latest modest scale battery technology is also a game changer from my consumer perspective. I use Jackeries (which do what you're talking about for lots of money XD), and mine from last year uses a chemistry that gives a maximum of perhaps 1.5A even though the capacity is quite high. The one from this year that uses lithium iron phosphate is happy to output 10A.

It's wild, I was able to power an AC brushless motor as well as a corded (technically?) drill. I could have run the drill for an hour at full power.

All around it just improves so fast I'm starting to feel like I do about computers -- the longer I continue to be satisfied with my current setup, the better the next one will be!

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#357

Post by DaoVeles »

anonfordays wrote: post #72

Soon (if not already) the largest costs associated with solar installations will be the labor. It's expensive to get people on roofs and electricians to reconfigure panels, install transfer switches, etc. The equipment could be free and it would still cost thousands for the skilled trades to install.

Pretty much. There will be a bottom limit on the price of the panels, simply due to the logistics of moving materials, I mean there is a price of salt per ton that is almost entirely this.

But everything else around solar such as inverters, cables, framing, labor, battery storage is where a large part of the cost now. Innovations in those areas will probably yield better cost reductions than the panels will nowadays. That is just wild to see!

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#358

Post by lazide »

hattmall wrote: post #320
caymanjim wrote: post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've lived like that. I lived in the Mission in San Francisco with four of my closest friends (all from NJ) within walking distance. It was great being able to meet up for lunch or drinks or go out clubbing, it was always a pleasant surprise to run into them randomly on the street or in a park. I lived in midtown Manhattan and I loved being able to go out at 3am in the middle of the winter and find a fresh produce st…

Why are you looking at such cold places for the off grid living? Lots of remote forested areas in Georgia and Alabama, but I can also understand opposition to the heat. I would give a lot consideration to TN and NC mountains.

Not the poster, but one practical reason - bugs can really cut into the outdoor enjoyment, and in colder climates ‘bug season’ is generally relatively short (but intense). Usually spring and early summer.

Warmer humid climates, it’s common to only get (at most) a few months of ‘no bugs’.

Chiggers, ticks, noseeums, mosquitos, black flies, etc.

Also, warmer humid environment mosquitos are usually tiny, sneaky, and disease carrying.

Cold area mosquitos tend to be huge, obnoxious, and less disease carrying. Easier to kill, but will bite through thick sweatshirts, type thing. (Yes really!)

Or go southwest US and only have the occasional horsefly to worry about.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#359

Post by caymanjim »

ericd wrote: post #339
caymanjim wrote: post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You make a good point. They really ought to be sold with Wh prominently displayed. I'm talking about 1200Ah@12V, although in reality there's a good chance that I'll do 600Ah@24V or 300Ah@48V. It's all the same 14.4kWh and will provide the exact same amount of usable power (ignoring some conversion efficiencies). I'm using Ah because I'm used to talking to people about 12V battery systems, and Ah is the most prominent…

Ah makes sense (that 12V is just implied for RVs). I'm used to dealing with 48V, since I'm doing this for a house, and it seems like they specify batteries both ways in that world. I wonder who uses 24V. Anyway, thanks for explaining it.

I'm also not really sure why one would pick 24V for most applications. 12V makes sense for RVs, boats, etc. because a lot of devices are designed to operate directly off 12V. 48V makes sense for houses and solar installations, if for no other reason than smaller-gauge wires (and is a big reason I'm considering it; 00 gauge wires are enormous and unwieldy). But 24V? You're likely not running much natively off 24V, so you're already going to be doing DC-DC conversion down to 12V. And there's not much cost difference between 24V and 48V inverter systems (and in fact many of them can already handle both voltages).

My first phase DC system, currently in my RV, is a single 12V lead-acid battery, single 100W solar panel, 12VDC->120VAC inverter, a few buck converters for 5V electronics and USB ports, and a bunch of stuff running off 12V (my cell modem/router and my Beelink mini-PC are 12V direct). 12V adapter for Starlink PoE. I'm waffling on getting one or two 280Ah 12V batteries to wire in parallel, or just sticking with my crappy 12V lead-acid battery for the rest of this year and getting multiple 48V LiFePO4 when I do the full solar build-out next year.

You're not supposed to mix-and-match battery brands, manufacturing dates, time in use, etc. because if there's too much of a mismatch, they'll all degrade faster (so I've read). This is what's preventing me from incrementally building up a 12V battery bank by adding another 280Ah every few months. Instead I'm planning to milk what I have as long as possible, pick a voltage, and buy a whole bank of batteries and solar panels all at once.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#360

Post by Spivak »

caymanjim wrote: post #249
tails4e wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The price to get solar installed in the US is insanely high compared to the cost of the materials. I've seen my extended family get quotes north of 40k for modest installs. I got a modest system with batter for around 9k in the EU, and id say I'd install the same for under 5k at today's prices.

Your $40k price is the high end and only in some markets, and has a whole lot more to do with regional labor costs than anything else. The same system would probably be $15k installed in another market. And that's before the enormous subsidies that are on offer in many states. Or if you're at all handy and willing to educate yourself, you can DIY it for a fraction of the cost. That's obviously not for everyone, but y…

Yeah, holy balls. My neighbor got theirs installed for $11k all-inclusive $9k after the Biden subsidy. And that included a complete replacement and expansion of their electrical panel to to accommodate it. $40k sounds unreal they better be gold plated.
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