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Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

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Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#351

Post by ben_w »

ascorbic wrote: post #107
roenxi wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many CEOs & owners have you vetted when making purchases? CEOs are a pretty shady crew as a class of people; it attracts people who like power and they are the dangerous ones. Or people who are single-minded in their focus and they tend to come with a raft of unusual views and personalities. And even after vetting, you're probably just biasing your purchases in favour of CEOs who do image management rather than p…

When I see a Tesla, I think of Elon. When I see another car I don't think of whoever the CEO is, because I don't know who that is. For better or worse, Tesla=Elon in most people's eyes. He had made himself the figurehead, and is an extremely divisive figure. I didn't like feeling that I was implicitly supporting him whenever I got into my car.

I know what you mean, but there's a few other companies who I boycott because they (or their CEO) said or did something that disgusted me, and I've had no reason to go back later and see if it's been corrected.

Ages ago now, 2009, there was an advertising scandal about Toyota: https://www.fastcompany.com/1390534/toyota-terrorizes-consum...

It's stuck with me ever since. I can't feel comfortable with the idea of buying a Toyota, knowing it might encourage stuff like that.

And I have absolutely no idea who their CEO is or was, even though that's just a quick search away if I ever need to actually find out.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#352

Post by ben_w »

sneak wrote: post #227
ZeroGravitas wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Conversely, I'd worry about the impartiality of any Tesla review that didn't prominently disclaim that yes, they are aware Musk is acting like a loon recently.

You can’t make two million automobiles a year and two stage orbital rockets while “acting like a loon”. Either Tesla and SpaceX are not congruent and coterminous with Elon, or he’s doing fine. Either way, the ad hominem has no place in the discussion of the works of the companies he runs. Both Tesla and SpaceX are kicking ass, so either you have to give him credit for it, or you have to stop bashing the company if yo…

> You can’t make two million automobiles a year and two stage orbital rockets while “acting like a loon”.

If it wasn't for the counter-example of Musk demonstrating that exact combination, I'd agree.

I don't know if all the stuff with, say, Twitter (usage as well as ownership), is him blowing off steam, or if he managed to build up leadership teams in Tesla and SpaceX that can just work around him, but somehow, somehow, he's managed to be exactly what SpaceX and Tesla needed to turn from a joke into a success… while also still being a lunatic with TBC and Twitter.

Even with Tesla, even though the company needed someone with his showmanship to get anywhere, the $420 privatisation thing, the way FSD turned from a fantastic surprise into a neck-millstone of overpromising and under-delivering are bizarre own-goals.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#353

Post by renegade-otter »

This is probably the most difficult problem in computer sense/vision that we have, and I am beginning to think that short of the purely hypothetical "AGI", this requires the computer known as "the human brain".

The only way out I see is separate or vastly updated infrastructure - separate roads and highways, and streets with specific signs and markings to help FSD vehicles navigate. For example, to ban FSD vehicles from taking certain risky routes.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#354

Post by maxlin »

tsimionescu wrote: post #318
maxlin wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're comparing a warehouse to a train even talking about Waymo. FSD has no limit. Recently it has been tested around in Europe and Asia, and the existing tech basically "just works" because sensorily and thought-wise it's made to function like the common meatbag between the seat and the wheel, just better. No, making the skyscraper 100 meters higher isn't going to make the train less relevant even though the tracks…

Again, FSD is just not doing anything that interesting. It only handles the easy scenarios, and punts to a driver for everything else, at a moment's notice. And it still constantly fails, per everyone who tries it, in even very simple situations. Look at what this article author found: that's just not something that happens with Waymo or Mercedes.

You're pretty much exactly 180 degrees in the wrong in that one. Due to the deep NN-based approach, FSD can react to the minutest of changes like seeing ahead of the car in front, or even hand signals by pedestrians to decide how to drive.

Again, even mentioning Waymo here proves you don't have the slightest idea of what you're talking about. Might as well compare FSD to trains, trains also "steer themselves" lol

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#355

Post by lagadu »

cess11 wrote: post #74
sbt wrote: post #69

Unfortunately, the adaptive cruise control is also far dumber than it thinks it is, slamming the breaks when passing under bridges on the highway etc.

Why? Because of shadows or does it operate on a 2D 'view' of the traffic situation?

In my experience it's almost always shadows. I can't be sure of course, but I've definitively noticed a correlation: both shadows from overpasses or shadows from semis, this happens more often when the sun is low too.

It never happens at night though, which in my mind makes the shadows hypothesis weaker.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#356

Post by henearkr »

cess11 wrote: post #350
henearkr wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The existing EVs' specs are more than enough, don't worry. And yes most of these EVs are still pretty dumb, so you'd like them. It's just that Tesla got the hype. By the way, when you realize that you actually never drive for 500km straight without e.g. several 30min pauses to rest, which can be used for charging if you have an EV, you discover that you have much more options than you'd think to choose a model to buy…

Seems it's rather common that they're Internet connected when I look at some ads. Do you have an example? 30 min pauses? Why? I stop for five-ten minutes every four to five hours when I need to pee, and I can't rely on there being charging stations along the way.

At least all the Toyota and Mitsubishi electric prior to 2018 or so. And I did not even look up anything in particular, it's just well known that none of those had any kind of remote upgrade.

I would advise you to do longer pauses when you are on such a long trip (not only me, the road safety specialists too). It's not for the bladder, it's for the fatigue, particularly of the central nervous system.

The risk is not to be killed by a bladder shrapnel, it's to switch off the attention and be crushed by an unnoticed lorry.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#357

Post by forgot-im-old »

red75prime wrote: post #294
forgot-im-old wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The universal approximation theorem does not apply once you include any realistic training algorithms / stochastic gradient descent. There isn't a learnability guarantee.

There's no theorem that SGD is insufficient. So, as I said, it's empirical.

You said it only depends on network size, I'm saying it more likely is impossible regardless of network size due to fundamental limits in training methods.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#358

Post by maxlin »

tsimionescu wrote: post #321
maxlin wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"near the bottom of the pack" Are you _trying_ to make people not take you seriously? No one has the kind of tech Tesla unveiled back at Autonomy day, which is still state of the art technology wise. 100w for that much NN compute was a genius move to manage to get the talent in to build and to get early. Now that they've had more time to develop the tech, FSD is looking better than ever and in a few years Tesla will…

No, I'm looking at actual results, not the tech stack. They are the only company that is only attempting Level 2, all the others are targeting or have achieved Level 3, or above. And Tesla isn't even doing Level 2 well, from the limited data that we have (since they of course refuse to release more). Look at any video about FSD on the internet and you'll see very frequent, inexplicable errors, in common simple scenar…

A train can also run entirely automated but it is as valid a competitor to FSD as anything you have mentioned because FSD is general and works like a human. Video to inputs

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#359

Post by ericlewis »

drcode wrote: post #147
rjh29 wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People who drive often find basic driving "automatic"; if you still need to be vigilant, maybe even hypervigilant because you're not personally driving the car, what's the advantage?

Maybe I'm just a bad driver, but it feels much safer to me having two entities paying attention, instead of just one It's much more comfortable not to have to micromanage the exact position of the car at every moment, as a manual driver does I think your "automatic driving" argument is wishful thinking

My wife is capable of “automatic driving” and I am not. She describes it as a flow state.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#360

Post by jmpman »

jmpman wrote: post #341

I’ve been using FSD for the last 6 weeks. Paid for the monthly subscription, and running v12.3.6 It’s almost killed me once, when it was about to blow through a red light at ~70mph, while a car was about to turn left in front of me. There was no indication that it was going to stop, so I slammed on the brakes. Then, after about three weeks, it stopped tracking the lanes properly, and would drive straddling the lane d…

I just figured out what’s broken. The front facing cameras are obscured due to what appears to be glue outgassing from the glue holding the flocked material surrounding the front camera enclosure. This is the second time this has happened. The Tesla allows you to drive, and gives no warnings that it can’t resolve properly. I reported it to the NTSB before, with no resolution. Time to do it again.
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