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Mark Zuckerberg’s new goal is creating artificial general intelligence

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Re: Mark Zuckerberg’s new goal is creating artificial general intelligence

#351

Post by kilotaras »

gardenhedge wrote: post #202
dwaltrip wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LLM scaling laws are pretty well established at this point. They probably won’t hold forever but we aren’t at the breaking point yet. Some more pressing questions are: * What new capabilities emerge as the models get better and better at predicting (i.e. loss goes down)? * How much will it cost to train increasingly large models? And to run inference on them? * How difficult will it be to find or generate more and mo…

> LLM scaling laws are pretty well established at this point what are they then? I thought everyone was firmly in the "let's train with more data and see what happens" camp

Scaling laws in terms of loss are well established.

How loss translates into higher-level capabilities is anyone's guess.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg’s new goal is creating artificial general intelligence

#352

Post by two_in_one »

x86x87 wrote: post #247
two_in_one wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> why there's so much insistence from business that magic happens at scale with LLMs It's already happening. See latest Google layoffs. They are automating a lot of things. Most people don't realize it, but the change is going to be dramatic. > We're a long way from AGI This is a big question, what is AGI? LLMs are quite generic and 'intelligent'. Not human-like, but. Next is going to be incremental evolution. Till w…

Boy, we must have a totally different understanding of whay AGI is. Intelligence is not about parroting an answer you've seen before. It's about using your environment to gain an evolutionary advantage.

> using your environment to gain an evolutionary advantage.

That's more like robotics. Except for evolution part. Does AGI require breeding? Software can easily multiply itself. That's hardware is the problem then.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg’s new goal is creating artificial general intelligence

#353

Post by two_in_one »

LudwigNagasena wrote: post #254
two_in_one wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> why there's so much insistence from business that magic happens at scale with LLMs It's already happening. See latest Google layoffs. They are automating a lot of things. Most people don't realize it, but the change is going to be dramatic. > We're a long way from AGI This is a big question, what is AGI? LLMs are quite generic and 'intelligent'. Not human-like, but. Next is going to be incremental evolution. Till w…

> See latest Google layoffs. They are automating a lot of things. Most people don't realize it, but the change is going to be dramatic. What exactly did they automate?

My guess paperwork. As they cut jobs in ads, where may things can be done programmatically now.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg’s new goal is creating artificial general intelligence

#354

Post by two_in_one »

digging wrote: post #264
x86x87 wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Boy, we must have a totally different understanding of whay AGI is. Intelligence is not about parroting an answer you've seen before. It's about using your environment to gain an evolutionary advantage.

> It's about using your environment to gain an evolutionary advantage. I don't think that's right either (it sounds like a description of adaptation), and I don't think your description of LLMs is fair, even though I'm fairly sure they're not AGI and won't scale to AGI. Intelligence is more like the ability to generalize skills, applying knowledge gained in one scenario to another scenario.

> Intelligence is more like the ability to generalize skills, applying knowledge gained in one scenario to another scenario.

Hmm.. you are talking about LLMs.. They are the most generic thing we have right now (Jan 2024) LLMs have limitations, like learning on the fly isn't their strong side. But the same with brain, it consists of limited components, that's only together they work well. LLMs can be a part of the solution, if we can't find something better.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg’s new goal is creating artificial general intelligence

#355

Post by [deleted] »

prewett wrote: post #283
andy99 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

a, they're not really open sourcing it, they're releasing it under a license that says you can use it for what they say. So it's marketing mostly, both external and internal to try and appease the "AI ethics" crowd. And honestly, b, their strategy is incoherent anyway. It's a tech company with too much money and no acute market pressure hoping to find something that sticks.

Traditionally a company with too much money returns it to the shareholders as dividends, but that seems to be passé...

[deleted]

Re: Mark Zuckerberg’s new goal is creating artificial general intelligence

#356

Post by tim333 »

pier25 wrote: post #188
konschubert wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am a general intelligence, with the knowledge of the internet at my fingertips, and I am not particularly dangerous.

What if you could clone yourself 1000x?

And up the intelligence 100x in the clones?

Re: Mark Zuckerberg’s new goal is creating artificial general intelligence

#357

Post by tim333 »

randycupertino wrote: post #282
blitzar wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Now, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg is entering the race. If this goes the same way as when Zuck entered the race to replace the US dollar, create a metaverse or cure disease, Ai will be dead in the next 2 years.

> or cure disease My old office was in the same building as Chan-Zuckerberg HQ hq and all the scientists I worked with rolled their eyes at their completely over the top mission statement to "cure all disease within our lifetimes." Cure ALL disease? Really?? Maybe pick one and try hard to eradicate it. But *all* disease?! All of it? Geeze. Also one of their top scientists exposed himself taking his junk out of his pa…

Zuck seems a bit more modest on the goal https://youtu.be/1Wo6SqLNmLk?t=580

Re: Mark Zuckerberg’s new goal is creating artificial general intelligence

#358

Post by x86x87 »

two_in_one wrote: post #352
x86x87 wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Boy, we must have a totally different understanding of whay AGI is. Intelligence is not about parroting an answer you've seen before. It's about using your environment to gain an evolutionary advantage.

> using your environment to gain an evolutionary advantage. That's more like robotics. Except for evolution part. Does AGI require breeding? Software can easily multiply itself. That's hardware is the problem then.

Think about what incentives do you have to live - it may sound rough but pain and ultimately death are the ultimate things everyone is trying to avoid.

Intelligence emerges as you are trying to survive longer. Reproduction is the ultimate way of cheating death.

Environment does not necessarily needs to mean physical environment, but until the "AI" does not recognize that it is in danger of nonexisting and starts to behave in ways to avoid it it cannot, imho, make the leap to AGI and it's just a really sophisticated tool.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg’s new goal is creating artificial general intelligence

#359

Post by ethbr1 »

blackoil wrote: post #313
ethbr1 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Especially once Apple Vision Pro ignites the industry. Ah, yes, the inevitability of Apple success. Just as everyone switched from cell phones to PDAs after 1993.

Wow, you must go back 30 years to find a failure. That's hugely impressive. If we squint enough we can add FireWire to that.

There's a train of Apple misses. Hindsight is success after success, because we only remember the successful and final versions of products.

Generally, they get it right a lot of the time. More than others!

But argumentum ad Apple to convince of the inevitability of technological shifts is insane.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg’s new goal is creating artificial general intelligence

#360

Post by stickfigure »

ethanbond wrote: post #349
stickfigure wrote: post #347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you want to have a meaningful dialogue, or do you just want to keep everyone guessing?

Well it seems like you’re willfully misreading what I’m saying. I didn’t say anything about robots nor rogue AIs. You’re obviously pattern-matching to whatever strawmen you want to battle instead of reading the words I’m writing.

What you wrote is so abstract that it begs for misinterpretation, and based on the upvotes apparently other people are struggling too.

How about you describe an actual danger scenario example? You clearly have something in mind.

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