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Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

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Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#351
post #133
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear is emphatically not an instant-on hot backup. Plants take time to spool up, and very importantly time to cool down. Fukushima happened because you can't just turn a reactor off, it produces energy that has to go somewhere while the intermediate fission products decay over hours-to-days.

> Nuclear is emphatically not an instant-on hot backup. Plants take time to spool up, and very importantly time to cool down All modern nuclear plants work in load following mode with ability to change ant the rate of 3-5% of their rated capacity per minute. Graph and text on page 8: https://www.oecd-nea.org/upload/docs/application/pdf/2021-12... > Fukushima happened because you can't just turn a reactor off, Fukushi…

> Fukushima happened because the plant was hit with both an earthquake and a flood significantly exceeding its operational parameters (already extremely high)

That's exactly the incorrect analysis that caused the meltdown!

That use of "and" and "both" is simply wrong. It wasn't an unforseeable collision of two events, it was a single event (an earthquake) with a predictable correlate (a tsunami). It's not like people didn't know that tsunamis follow earthquakes, and no one who does know that would make the argument you just did.

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#352
post #345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Based on facts, it is currently plain wrong." No. "Your sentence "Nuclear power plants are nowhere near insured to risk" is pretty typical of the anti-nuclear argumentation: Mainly based on feelings not on facts." A: Fukushima is costing $200B B: US nuclear power plants are insured for a payout of $15B A+B: US power plants are underinsured by $185B (Germany had $0.25B insurance company payouts and $2.25B coverage by…

> EnergyWende" is not a German word. While Java is using Camelcase, German is not using Camelcase. Quick question, outside of the necessity of CamelCase. Are water dam operating companies insured up to the damages of a damn rupture ? Like in the case of the Vajont damn in Italy ? Even for your car insurance: Will your insurance pays for the society cost of two disabled persons for life after you hit them when your ti…

Whataboutism [0]

Nuclear power plants are massivly underinsured. That was my point.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#353
post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody seems to get that these operational parameters were set and approved and told to be save and then they were still exceeded, lol.

This was literally the definition of a black swan event: "an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight"

No, Japanese authorities and TEPCo knew tgat earthquakes and tsunamis could happen, and usually together. They planned for it, they simply planned insufficiently, so quite the opposite of a black swan.

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#354
post #351
post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nuclear is emphatically not an instant-on hot backup. Plants take time to spool up, and very importantly time to cool down All modern nuclear plants work in load following mode with ability to change ant the rate of 3-5% of their rated capacity per minute. Graph and text on page 8: https://www.oecd-nea.org/upload/docs/application/pdf/2021-12... > Fukushima happened because you can't just turn a reactor off, Fukushi…

> Fukushima happened because the plant was hit with both an earthquake and a flood significantly exceeding its operational parameters (already extremely high) That's exactly the incorrect analysis that caused the meltdown! That use of "and" and "both" is simply wrong. It wasn't an unforseeable collision of two events, it was a single event (an earthquake) with a predictable correlate (a tsunami). It's not like people…

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38304582

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#355
post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was literally the definition of a black swan event: "an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight"

No, Japanese authorities and TEPCo knew tgat earthquakes and tsunamis could happen, and usually together. They planned for it, they simply planned insufficiently, so quite the opposite of a black swan.

The definition of a catastrophic one-in-a-lifetime event: you can't plan for it.

Fukushima had been in operation since 1971. You truly really believe that there were no earthquakes in the meantime, and the only reason for failure in 2011 is that they didn't plan for the largest earthquake and one of the worst tsunamis in Japanese history?

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#356
post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, Japanese authorities and TEPCo knew tgat earthquakes and tsunamis could happen, and usually together. They planned for it, they simply planned insufficiently, so quite the opposite of a black swan.

The definition of a catastrophic one-in-a-lifetime event: you can't plan for it. Fukushima had been in operation since 1971 . You truly really believe that there were no earthquakes in the meantime, and the only reason for failure in 2011 is that they didn't plan for the largest earthquake and one of the worst tsunamis in Japanese history?

Well, according the IAEA, the planning against, and risk evaluation of, earthquakes and tsunamis for the Fukushima Daiichi NPP were insufficient:

>> The seismic hazard and tsunami waves considered in the original design were evaluated mainly on the basis of historical seismic records and evidence of recent tsunamis in Japan. This original evaluation did not sufficiently consider tectonic-geological criteria and no re-evaluation using such criteria was conducted.

Source:

https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/Pub1710-Repor..., page 48.

Stop speculating and assuming, stop thinking from first principle and do the following instead:

- read text books on basic engineering, electricity generation and grid operation

- read some basics regarding nuclear reactors (or, in all seriousness, watch Chernobyl which provides some really good basic explanations)

- read the publicly available incident reports from the IAEA on thebaccidents of your choosing

All the questions you might have about any nuclear accident are answered in those reports. Those reports are prepared and investigated by experts in their field, going painstackingly over documents, event logs, design documents, meeting minutes (like a real and thorough investigation you know). Try understand all of that, and then draw whatever conclusion you want. Because by doing that, we have a basis for discussion, one rooted in reality in facts, as opposed to the headline-talking points fairytale stuff we have now, where people without any basic knowledge how things work draw assumptions from some headlines...

Once HN was a place where people applied critical thinking to topics, and where curious to learn from people knowing more (of which you find a ton around here). Since COVID, more and more people seem to think some general smartness allows them to understand even the most complex issues better than anyone else based on headlines, opinion pieces and social media talking points. I hope we can return to how things were before, it is getting really frustrating at times.

Edit: Some general engineering advice: Those once in a life time event are actually planned for, the USSR had rules for that in the 70s as well. The approach od identifying those risks was formalized as Failure Modes and Effects Analysis, FMEA. They are done for the design, production and operation, for processes, in order to identify those risks, the likelihood, the criticality and the ability to detect them. Following that, mitigation actions are defined and put into place. And, very important, they revisited regularly.

This wasn't done neither for Chernobyl nor Fukushima (just because the formal process didn't exist back then doesn't mean engineers didn't do those exercises, and the USSR had regulations in olace basically asking for the same thing. Regulations that were ignored by everyone for Cherbobyl unit No. 4). The IAEA reports for Chernobyl and Fukushima point thaz insufficient planning out explicitely, as do the USSR reports on Chernobyl. And if you think those fuck ups only happened in the distant past, the Boeing 737 Max can basically be traced back to the same root cause. Because these failures are not as much about people as they are about organizations. Hence processes and rules to follow in safety critical industries, and other large scale organizations. The cowboy style of operating in a start-up doesn't translate well to those places.

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#357
post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, Japanese authorities and TEPCo knew tgat earthquakes and tsunamis could happen, and usually together. They planned for it, they simply planned insufficiently, so quite the opposite of a black swan.

The definition of a catastrophic one-in-a-lifetime event: you can't plan for it. Fukushima had been in operation since 1971 . You truly really believe that there were no earthquakes in the meantime, and the only reason for failure in 2011 is that they didn't plan for the largest earthquake and one of the worst tsunamis in Japanese history?

Just found another highlight from the executive summary:

>> Prior to the earthquake, the Japan Trench was categorized as a subduction zone with a frequent occurrence of magnitude 8 class earthquakes; an earthquake of magnitude 9.0 off the coast of Fukushima Prefecture was not considered to be credible by Japanese scientists. However, similar or higher magnitudes had been registered in different areas in similar tectonic environments in the past few decades.

Now, tell me again, how the Fukushima earthquake and tsunami were totally impossible to predict events?

And it gets better:

>> In addition, a number of trial calculations were performed by the operator before the accident, using wave source models or methodologies that went beyond the consensus based methodology. Thus, a trial calculation using the source model proposed by the Japanese Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion in 2002, which used the latest information and took a different approach in its scenarios, envisaged a substantially larger tsunami than that provided for in the original design and in estimates made in previous reassessments. At the time of the accident, further evaluations were being conducted, but in the meantime, no additional compensatory measures were implemented. The estimated values were similar to the flood levels recorded in March 2011.

So, in 2002 they predicted pretry accurately the strength of potentail tsunamis. And then they did nothing for next nine years. The USSR knew about the control rod issue of RBMKs, and as TEPCO in Japan, did nothing until Chernobyl. See the inherent risk of nuclear power here? Because both, Chernobyl and Fukushima were pretty much predictable (as the risk was prpoerly identified before both accidents) and preventable if people in charge, and the organizations, would have put counter measures in place.

Edit: And now you can google the material difference between common and special causes.

>> The common cause failures of multiple safety systems resulted in plant conditions that were not envisaged in the design.

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#358
post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nuclear is emphatically not an instant-on hot backup. Plants take time to spool up, and very importantly time to cool down All modern nuclear plants work in load following mode with ability to change ant the rate of 3-5% of their rated capacity per minute. Graph and text on page 8: https://www.oecd-nea.org/upload/docs/application/pdf/2021-12... > Fukushima happened because you can't just turn a reactor off, Fukushi…

Nobody seems to get that these operational parameters were set and approved and told to be save and then they were still exceeded, lol.

There is basically nothing correct in your statement.

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#359
post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> - that wind and solar, combined, were only producing 15% of their installed capacity aka 20GW? This is a misrepresentation. Solar for example is only ever planned for to achieve about 30% of its "capacity" (due to the whole sun going down at night thing). And even that varies with seasons. So if you're claiming the German grid planners were expecting the solar to magically 4x overdeliver, and were suddenly let down…

> Solar for example is only ever planned for to achieve about 30% of its "capacity" (due to the whole sun going down at night thing). And even that varies with seasons. 1. 30% is avaerage number which is a useless because at 10 in the morning when I was writing my text solar was even below that. 2. You're literally confirming what I was saying. > So if you're claiming the German grid planners were expecting the solar…

You are seriously unable to read time based values, aren't you?

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the real world, the grid got almost shut down by the Russian war and the salvation came from even dirtier gas from the US

No, in Europe one of the main importers of this dirtier US gas is... nuclear-hero France! Source: https://www.radiofrance.fr/franceculture/podcasts/open-sourc...

Yes I know, those gas plants were built by Total and Engie as a part of their renewable strategy. The irony is insane here.

Before 2010 and the privatisation of the grid, France only had a single working gas plant on the whole grid and not even connected to the pipelines, it was a plant reusing factory gas. Those gas plants are brand new and there to support the new wind and solar installs.

Check the construction dates here, it's really obvious: https://fr.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_des_centrales_thermiqu...

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