Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is the point. This is a textbook situation that would be perfect for a competitor to come in and undercut. However not only is that not happening, nobody is even trying. Making the “theory” pretty worthless if it’s not even applicable in cases that would naturally produce this market entrant. The reality is that private equity does not actually want to compete with large global brands.
> This is a textbook situation that would be perfect for a competitor to come in and undercut. Is it? A competitor can enter the market and undercut by producing a cheaper and otherwise undifferentiated commodity-type product. Nvidia's focus is adding moats that prevent competing on pure specs such as CUDA, design, and so on.
Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024
351–360 of 444 posts
Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024
#352Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are they so far ahead? AMD GPUs get comparable results as of late on Stable Diffusion. Software and hardware from competitors will catch up, crunching 4/8/16 bit width numbers is no rocket science.
Perhaps RDNA3 GPUs get comparable results, but RDNA2 GPUs are behind. I bought a RX 6800XT to do some AI work because of the 16GB VRAM, and while the VRAM allows me to do stuff that my 6GB RTX 2060 wasn't able to, on performance side it's actually a downgrade in many aspects. But the main issue is software support. To get acceptable performance you need to use ROCm, which is Linux only. There was some Windows release…
However AMD is still as terrible at H264 as ever, and their AV1 encoder also has a hardware defect they’ve patched by forcing it to round up to 16 line multiples, so it is incapable of encoding a 1080p video and instead outputs 1082p that won’t be ingested properly when streaming.
http://freedesktop.org/mesa/mesa/-/issues/9185#note_1954937
Also the AV1 quality is not as good as intel+nvidia even with resolutions that aren’t glitched. AMD seemingly went big on HEVC (supposedly because of stadia?) but everything else is a mess.
And most places won’t touch HEVC because of the licensing costs. Microsoft makes it a windows store plugin you have to buy separately etc. somewhat odd that google picked HEVC for stadia but I guess those customers are actually directly paying you vs YouTube being a minus on their balance sheet (at least until recently possibly)
Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024
#353Earlier quoted context omitted.
Between those 2 GPUs, the fp32 perf went up 12.7x according to TechPowerUp’s specs. The SM count went up 8.5x (which represents Moore’s law and note is almost exactly in line with Moore’s prediction), and the clock rate went up 1.5x. The FPS of CSGO (or any game) is not a good measure of Moore’s law. Games have all kinds of complexities and caveats that will prevent them from scaling linearly. I used to write some of…
Wow, didn't expect to get so many comments. It's just interesting to me that we have 500hz monitors, yet games are still coming out that only run at ~70 fps on a 3080, etc. I used CS:GO as a comparison just because it was an example capable of coming near 500 FPS. Avg FPS are not going up fast enough in my opinion. I understand some games purposefully limit FPS for physics calculations, but there are many that do not…
Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024
#354It s come to the point that people are begging competitors to do something in the space. Who knows, maybe some cheap Chinese asic that can do matrix multiplication ends up eating their lunch. You d think that, at the level of capitalization of tech companies, competition would be cutthroat
Capitalization in itself is meaningless. If you have 50% of NVidia outstanding shares, and you try to sell 10% of that, the capitalization would crater. What really counts is the profit. It is pretty huge now, but not 'that' huge (at least yet).
Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024
#355Earlier quoted context omitted.
They’re all pretty motivated, they’ve been motivated for years, and almost nothing is happening. This situation isn’t exactly a poster child for the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. Every year just sounds like “Nvidia’s new consumer GPUs are adding new features, breaking previous performance ceilings, running games at huge resolutions and framerates. Their datacenter cards are completely sold out because they can spin s…
Tech design and development seems, to me at least, pretty much naturally opposed to the "being kept in check with competition" state - as design isn't really a cost that scales per-unit, the company that sells slightly more can afford to put more into development at the same per-unit margin, which snowballs. At some point, they own the entire market - or enough that they functionally control it, and start leveraging…
This means that nvidia capital is spend on testing/development infrastructure and creative labor.
So, you don’t need monopoly breaking to handle nvidia if it keeps growing, but instead rethink IP laws.
Testing infrastructure is less capital investment than production manufacture. (See ASML and TSMC beeing booked), and humans can be persuaded to work elsewhere.
This means Nvidia cannot fall a sleep, even if they keep snowballing. In a few years a rival can always arrive, or current ones snag key people or have dev/test infra breakthrough, or IP law could change as its critics rise every year.
Sure, if Nvidia keeps its good game it will keep on growing and get even bigger share, but if it doesn’t, it will happen what happened with intel, intel got greedy on its position, and the company got fat.
As long as nvidia keeps its game, it’ll be good for customers even if they swallow more market share, as prices are always limited by the value business customers get from AI, and the investment needed for a competitor is not even close to infrastructure or resource extraction stuff like high end chip fabs, oil extraction, energy grids, telecom grids.
Again, Nvidia does not produce any physical goods, only designs.
Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024
#356Earlier quoted context omitted.
Efficient market hypothesis is unrelated to Nvidia’s competitors being unable to offer a competing product so far. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/efficientmarkethypothes... > The efficient market hypothesis (EMH), alternatively known as the efficient market theory, is a hypothesis that states that share prices reflect all information and consistent alpha generation is impossible.
you know what he meant...
Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024
#357Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are they so far ahead? AMD GPUs get comparable results as of late on Stable Diffusion. Software and hardware from competitors will catch up, crunching 4/8/16 bit width numbers is no rocket science.
> Software and hardware from competitors will catch up, crunching 4/8/16 bit width numbers is no rocket science. I used to think like that, until I got a job there and... Oh, boy! I left five years later still amazed at all the ever more mind bending ways you can multiply two damn matrices. It was the most tedious yet also most intellectually challenging work I've ever done. My coworkers there were also the brightest…
What does this mean? Tedious is pretty much the opposite of “intellectually challenging” when I think of careers.
Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024
#358Earlier quoted context omitted.
Until very recently, AMD was struggling for survival. Rather than making the big bet on AI, they went for the sure thing by banking on revolutionary CPU tech. I'm sure if they were in a better financial position 5 years ago, they would have gone bigger on AI.
And arguable their bet on CPU tech worked! AMD is in a much better position today than they were 5+ years ago. They have some catching up to do but that doesn't mean their completely out of the game.
[0] https://www.overclock3d.net/news/cpu_mainboard/amd_predicted...
Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024
#359Incredible company. It’s absolutely insane how far ahead they are with the investments they made over a decade ago. So nice to see a “hard” engineering (from silicon to software) SV-founded company getting all this recognition. Especially after what has felt like a decade of SV hype software companies dominating the mainstream financial markets pre-pandemic with a spate of overpriced IPOs or large ad-revenue generati…
The moniker of "hard" engineering is neither precise nor useful. What makes engineering hard? Is solving problems with distributed systems, even if these systems are for ads, hard? Or do you mean hardware? In that case even Nvidia is not hard enough since they don't fabricate their own chips. Or do you mean designing hardware? Then what makes writing system verilog at a desk hard but writing Python not hard?
Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024
#360Earlier quoted context omitted.
The other non-major Nvidia based console has higher sales numbers than both of so-called major consoles combined.
It's ... difficult to compare a low-power SoC released in 2015 (so, design dating back to 2014 if not earlier) with high-power consoles developed in 2019 onwards.