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Big data is dead

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Re: Big data is dead

#351

"For more than a decade now, the fact that people have a hard time gaining actionable insights from their data has been blamed on its size." The real issue is that business people usually ignore what the data says. Wading through data takes a huge amount of thought, which is in short supply. Data Scientists are commonly disregarded by VPs in large corporations, despite the claims about being "data driven". Most corpo…

What “data driven” normally looks like: business people ask questions that are not answerable, but the DS team often goes off and tries to answer them anyway. I’ve been in so many meetings, in multiple organizations, where a senior leader asks a question like, “why did this number go up? We need an owner to deep dive this.” Then, someone disappears for a few hours or days and comes back with some nice narrative that more or less might make some sense, and is directionally consistent. Then, best case, they go “hmm, ok” and worst case, they say it’s an interesting view and we need to add it to the tracking. Then, move on to a new question + action item, rinse and repeat. And then, 6 months or a year later, some brave soul goes, “geeze, there are way too many things to look at here, can we streamline this reporting to focus on the handful of most important metrics, and then assign owners to review the others and surface anything interesting?” And then all those things people asked for over time get stuffed into an appendix or deleted, and the whole thing starts all over again.

Re: Big data is dead

#352
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to joke that Data Scientists exist not to uncover insights or provide analysis, but merely to provide factoids that confirm senior management's prior beliefs. I did several experiments, and noticed that whenever I produced analysis that was in line with what management expected - my analysis was praised and widely disseminated. Nobody would even question data completeness, quality, whatever. They would pick so…

> Data Scientist's job is to launder management's intuition using quantitative methods Ouch. This is savage, but sadly correct in many cases. HOWEVER, to play devil's advocate here, I've also seen corporate data scientists overstate the conclusions / generalizability of their analysis. I've also seen data scientists fall prey to believing that their analysis proves would should be done, rather than what is likely to…

Yep. At this point, I essentially don't trust any ML result that shows > 95% accuracy.

So often, those models proved to be over-fitted and not generalizable.

But too many decision makers simply can't properly judge such results.

Re: Big data is dead

#353
post #75
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, "customer obsession" really just means "market share / growth obsession" which is a means to (eventually) making monopoly profits. Which Amazon seems to have achieved.

One may follow the other, but not vice versus. It's a pretty strong argument to say that Microsoft under Gates was technically obsessed, but that really faltered under Balmer. Microsoft continued to win profits, but they made major strategic missteps that cost the revenue. Amazon feels like it's going down the same path: empowering the tree-gazers without remembering that the forest also matters.

You can also “coast upwards” for quite awhile - as an example we now pay Microsoft less than we were for periodic upgrades to Office for the entire Microsoft 365 suite (including email hosting, etc) but all the machines are now Macs. They make more from us in one way, but less in total dollars.

Re: Big data is dead

#354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if your data can fit into RAM, what exactly are we talking about Big Data for? That's a fantastic point, and I keep mentioning the COST paper to anyone who cares: https://www.usenix.org/system/files/conference/hotos15/hotos...

COVID was proof The Right Data is better than Big Data. All those data sources to measure how many sick people we have and it turns out we just need one: Wastewater.

Or another way to look at it - if we make a data lake that collects everyone’s shit we might find something useful in it!

Re: Big data is dead

#355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. It isn't just time to set up all the data in a way that makes the right query possible. It is also having queries fast enough to be able to run a vast number of them in order to find what you are looking for (or even things you were not looking for). https://didgets.substack.com/p/data-science-and-serendipity

Is it queries on live data or data thats been moved usually?

It’s moving the data around that is slow… and expensive. Getting the data into the data warehouse, then getting it to the processors then moving it around to filter and transform.

Getting your data to the cloud is expensive, but then you can’t do anything with it because distributing it to process in multiple stages is too expensive and you’re already paying so much to keep all that useless data.

Re: Big data is dead

#356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>ChatGPT is literally changing how school will test their students, for a start. Sure, instead of schools checking for plagiarism from other students' papers using turnitin.com, they'll check for plagiarism using ChatGPT tools that scan for known output from their industrial-scale amalgamation of plagiarized materials. Big whoop.

It appears that it's hard to detect AI generated content. E.g. true detection rates are only around 25% and there are also techniques to further mask output [1]. [1] https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/innovation/chatgpt-can-help-foo...

You only need enough to flag suspect content, and then the teacher calls the student in for a quick oral exam - the fakers will flounder, the reals will pass.

Re: Big data is dead

#357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Data Scientist's job is to launder management's intuition using quantitative methods Ouch. This is savage, but sadly correct in many cases. HOWEVER, to play devil's advocate here, I've also seen corporate data scientists overstate the conclusions / generalizability of their analysis. I've also seen data scientists fall prey to believing that their analysis proves would should be done, rather than what is likely to…

What does a “normative” lens mean?

As opposed to "postive". It's the old is-ought dichotomy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Is%E2%80%93ought_problem.

Positive claims are about what is true. Normative claims are about what should be true, or rather what decisions we should make. Put another way, positive claims deal only with facts while normative claims deal also with values.

GP is saying that it's the data-scientist's job to give the executive the facts and it's the executive's job to decide what to do about the facts.

Re: Big data is dead

#358
post #36

"For more than a decade now, the fact that people have a hard time gaining actionable insights from their data has been blamed on its size." The real issue is that business people usually ignore what the data says. Wading through data takes a huge amount of thought, which is in short supply. Data Scientists are commonly disregarded by VPs in large corporations, despite the claims about being "data driven". Most corpo…

I used to joke that Data Scientists exist not to uncover insights or provide analysis, but merely to provide factoids that confirm senior management's prior beliefs. I did several experiments, and noticed that whenever I produced analysis that was in line with what management expected - my analysis was praised and widely disseminated. Nobody would even question data completeness, quality, whatever. They would pick so…

>>I did several experiments, and noticed that whenever I produced analysis that was in line with what management expected - my analysis was praised and widely disseminated. Nobody would even question data completeness, quality, whatever. They would pick some flashy metric like a percentage and run around with it.

>> Whenever my analysis contradicted - there was so much scrutiny in numbers, data quality, etc, and even after answering all questions and concerns - analysis would be tossed away as non-actionable/useless/etc.

It's a good sign at the company that I run, anytime our analysts/data scientists come up with metrics that say we're killing it, or that our ideas should bear a ton of fruit, the kneejerk reaction is to be extremely skeptical of the results. Usually they're still right.

When the data scientists say we're fucking something up, we tend to pay a lot more attention.

Only the paranoid survive, after all.

Re: Big data is dead

#359

I've made anecdotal observations similiar to this over the last 10 years. I work in AgTech. A big push for a while here has been "more and more more data". Sensor-the-heck out of your farm, and We'll Tell You Things(tm). Most of what we as an industry are able to tell growers is stuff they already know or suspect. There is the occasional suprise or "Aha" moment where some correlation becomes apparent, but the thing a…

Or they could put on their work boots and go walk around the field and kick a few dirt clods, or science forbid! put a hand in the soil to check the moisture content.

Re: Big data is dead

#360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Authoritarian types consider any information derived by science which is contrary to their position as invalid or irrelevant because facts challenge their authority and ability to exercise control.

yes. I used to think the Church had a honest disagreement with Galileo about heliocentricity. When I grew up I realized the Church never cared about orbits at all, what they care about is maintenance of status quo. And then when I got old, I realized, there is even a reason that some people want status quo... because they have usually been around long enough to see society fall apart into anarchy and mass murder, so…

The church was not upset about heliocentrism. They were upset that Galileo was attempting to reinterpret the words of Bible in order to bolster his astronomical authority.
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