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The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

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Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#351

Post by SpeedilyDamage »

marcusverus wrote: post #307
rtkwe wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ironically modern tighter boarder controls contribute to more people moving here permanently/semi-permanently. When border crossings were easier and cheaper migrant workers could come work for a harvest or several and return to Mexico or beyond during the off season only living in the US for a short period while working. Now the crossing is more expensive and dangerous so the incentive is to move here full time.

> Ironically modern tighter boarder controls contribute to more people moving here permanently/semi-permanently. Border crossings are at a 20 year high, but the problem is that border controls are too tight? That seems odd.

The problem you're having here is that you think "border crossings = bad", but that's not really the issue, is it? If a person doesn't live in the US, and is instead allowed to commute to/from Mexico, you get the upsides of their labor without the "downsides" of supporting them (IMO a disgusting way of thinking about it but here we are).

Considering they pay income taxes, sales taxes, social security/medicaid, and don't make much use of US resources, it seems to me that you would want border crossings to increase dramatically, as long as they're accompanied by a corresponding crossing back home at the end of the day.

...which is exactly how it was, 20ish years ago, before 9/11.

Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#352

Post by toast0 »

rsj_hn wrote: post #325
toast0 wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I've noticed that there has been mass hysteria in some California-centric websites that flood insurance must be provided by the Federal government in Florida, but not that earthquake insurance must be provided by the Federal government in California. Earthquake insurance availability is mandated within the state. Why would we need a Federal mandate when we have an effective state mandate. It's not attractively pric…

Last time I was in the housing market in San Francisco, earthquake insurance was not mandated. Can you point me to the law mandating it now? Perhaps you mean it's mandated by your bank when taking out a mortgage? That's a private sector decision that depends on your bank and your loan. Anyways, you are confusing the issue of whether insurance is mandated with the fact that no private insurer will cover it, and so the…

https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySectio...

AFAIK, your residential insurance carrier is mandated to offer you Earthquake insurance. If there's some exception I'm not aware of, let me know.

Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#353

Post by latchkey »

runnerup wrote: post #339
latchkey wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, they know the value and have priced accordingly. ~$800usd vs. tile+labor. Definitely a product that is ripe for disruption. There aren't even many manufacturers.

> Definitely a product that is ripe for disruption. There aren't even many manufacturers. These two statements may be related. It’s not worth deploying capital to compete if the additional competition drives profits margins to zero. Better to deploy that capital somewhere it gets better expected returns. This anti-competitive logic seems very widespread these days with such centralized global supply chains and consol…

You're right on all fronts, my only comment is that there is a lot of room for product improvement though.

$800+ for 3 sheets of plastic, and that is it, is absurd. They don't even interlock or have trim for the corners... example...

https://www.homedepot.com/p/WOODBRIDGE-Haydon-32-in-x-60-in-...

Of course adding those items would cost even more, so it is a bit of a race to zero. That said, if you can get a following by homebuilders and into every single new housing project, it might be worth it. I'm sure having some sort of inside track advantage there would be necessary too. None of which I personally have, but as an end user of this stuff, I'd be more than happy to support and provide feedback on.

Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#354

Post by [deleted] »

swagasaurus-rex wrote: post #113
kodah wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have no data to back this observation up, but everyone (especially in the media, but also in corporate life) is attacking "worker productivity" lately. Everyone's got a reason, but when you dig into them they all stink.

From the mouth of CEOs it's clear they're trying to wrestle back low wages and unpaid overtime using shame. Especially out of touch when they bad mouth their own subordinates and think it doesn't reflect poorly on themselves. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/16/marc-benioff-says-newer-sale...

[deleted]

Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#355

Post by gamblor956 »

notch656c wrote: post #273
frankus wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it shows that there's at least a basic cost-benefit analysis taking place, where things that we've learned provide a safety benefit that can be added at minimal cost during construction are required, but bulldozing a house because it will burn down 15 minutes faster doesn't pencil out.

And yet if I built a new house against code they would still make me go back and fix it, even though I could make the exact argument you made about the old house not penciling out to go back and make them fix it.

No, not even remotely the same.

The old house was up-to-code, and considered safe for habitation, when it was built. Your new house was not.

Very importantly, if you renovate an old house, regulations may require you to update the house to modern building code standards for plumbing, electricity, etc.

Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#356

Post by notch656c »

gamblor956 wrote: post #355
notch656c wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet if I built a new house against code they would still make me go back and fix it, even though I could make the exact argument you made about the old house not penciling out to go back and make them fix it.

No, not even remotely the same. The old house was up-to-code, and considered safe for habitation, when it was built. Your new house was not. Very importantly, if you renovate an old house, regulations may require you to update the house to modern building code standards for plumbing, electricity, etc.

Yes that's the scam. Magically the houses are not held to the same code. Got mine, fuck everybody else.

Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#357

Post by s1artibartfast »

tomrod wrote: post #163

Worker productivity is meaningless if the secular trends (read:code requirements) increase in complexity over time. This analysis approach and outcomes are garbage, in my professional opinion. While I generally appreciate Dr. Goolsbee's research, here the causality as presented here is seriously off. The assumption is that the productivity has decreased. However, the factors of this aren't a shift in the supply curve…

I think it's an accurate way of looking at it but not the only one. Different company goes from making 10 widgets and 10 hours to One widget in 10 hours plus paperwork, that is a productivity loss in terms of widgets.

Sure, and entirely misses any difference in quality certification of the widget. However, the point that you are fewer widgets per hour still stands. It is a starting point for further questions. For example, Do you really need all that paperwork for the widgets?

In this case the analysis was conducted on housing square footage built and we are building less per hour. If we accept that we can ask further questions.

Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#358

Post by rovolo »

RC_ITR wrote: post #267
hindsightbias wrote: post #2

> number of houses or total square footage built per employee Average house size has probably doubled in the last 50 years. Nail guns can't make up for building code and higher finish work demands. It's not uncommon to see 6 or 7 layers in sheathing today.

There's the theory that building codes are used similarly (and complimentarily) to zoning laws to limit the supply of new housing (and therefore raise property values). A great example being fire walls and mandatory self-latching doors between garages and living spaces - definitely a logical thing (cars and their gas are flammable, so let's isolate them from the house). When you look at the data [0], garage fires are…

The 2% is a bit misleading because the fire severity depends on how well it's contained. ~50% of fires are "confined" to an object, mostly cooking fires inside pots. Garages are 5% of non-confined fires, which is similar to living rooms (6%) and attics (5%) [0]. The numbers also go slightly up when apartment buildings are excluded[1], taking garage fires to 6% of non-confined residential fires.

[0] https://www.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/statistics/v21i2.pdf

[1] https://www.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/statistics/v21i6.pdf

Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#359

Post by gamblor956 »

notch656c wrote: post #268
loandbehold wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just manual labor. You need an architect, structural engineer. Getting all permits, environmental analysis. A lot of expensive "knowledge workers" involved. Then there are materials, rental of construction equipment, insurance. Developers who build large number of row houses at the same time can get costs down through economies of scale.

In the county next to me you can self certify and pretty promise you did all that "knowledge worker" shit. No one will ever check, the self certification just promises you did the stuff and the government promises they won't investigate. Somehow not everyone is dying in city-wide house fires. Sounds like southern california done fucked themselves with over-regulating that stuff.

Our buildings are built to withstand earthquakes that could level other cities, because we have frequent earthquakes, and building codes were dramatically strengthened following the 1994 Northridge Quake.

A single Ritcher 5.8 quake in Virginia in 2011 caused $300 million in damage and disrupted utilities for days in 12 states. A series of earthquakes in 2019 (6.4, 5.4, and 7.1) in California caused so little damage that it's hard to find a tally. Power was knocked in some cities and restored within hours.

Yes, CA construction is more expensive. But it's also stronger and more resilient than the cheap crap in the county next to you.

Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#360

Post by Kukumber »

Kukumber wrote: post #181
feoren wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Society doesn't ___ anymore" statements are nearly universally bullshit.

that explains the current situation, it's all bullshit :clown_face: https://money.usnews.com/careers/best-jobs/construction-work... https://money.usnews.com/careers/best-jobs/web-developer/sal...

people in this website have a hard time with factual data, everything that goes against their narrative is downvoted, it's funny, reality check incoming soon enough
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