Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages • Hacker News Board

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#351

Post by emmelaich » Sun, Sep 25, 2022, 10:22 PM UTC

elric wrote: post #151

bpodgursky wrote: post #3

Belgium just shut down a functional nuclear reactor: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Belgium-T...

When do you suggest nuclear reactors should be shut down? After they stop being functional? Seems risky. Is the timing unfortunate? Yes. But everything else is just exaggerated. This was a small reactor which was responsible for a tiny amount of production in a tiny country. Should we replace it? Maybe. But then we should have started construction 20 years ago. Given that this didn't happen, the rest of the discussio…

5% of Belgium's power doesn't seem tiny to me.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#352

Post by wizofaus » Sun, Sep 25, 2022, 10:25 PM UTC

kennend3 wrote: post #281

moonchrome wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Now nuclear costs 3-5x more and is simply not relevant. Compared to what ? Energy prices have jumped 2-3x in some places so far, and it's not even winter yet. Comparing renewable prices as averages or whatever is fine if you like blackouts ?

This is the CORE of the energy debate.. People throw out whatever nonsense they like to support their position. "Nuclear costs 3-5x" and as you point out, compared to what? The cost of sitting around for 20 years debating this and not taking any action at all has lead to much worse problems - power shortages. These "anti-nuclear" types fail to apply logic to their debate. I asked how much power is produced by solar d…

Surely the main issue with winter in more northern regions is the significantly reduced period of the day for which any solar-generation is even possible. During the daylight hours there's still more than enough total insolation to heat the small amount of air we need to inside our houses, but you obviously need some form of storage (or incredibly good insulation, arguably a form of storage too) to ensure buildings can remain a comfortable temperature throughout the day and night. From a purely technical feasibility point of view, there's always sufficient insolation somewhere/somewhen to provide all our energy needs, but whether it's practical or economical compared to alternatives such as nuclear is worth doing the sums on.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#353

Post by thrown_22 » Sun, Sep 25, 2022, 10:43 PM UTC

jopsen wrote: post #336

thrown_22 wrote: post #245

There are far too many people who don't understand the difference between power and energy. If you give me a lump of coal you give me power. If I burn that coal I get power. Renewable energy is cheap. Renewable power isn't. Nuclear energy is expensive. Nuclear power isn't. You can't run a modern economy on renewables because you can't turn off society when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow. Europe is no…

Won't you just need 10x capacity spread over a large area with good transfer connections. Maybe, a but if pumped hydro, some batteries, and power intensive industries running only when power is cheap? (Not that nuclear wouldn't be nice, it's just never quick fix)

>What if we turned off society whenever the sun stopped shining?

Sure. Hope you don't have anything important running on electricity, like say life support systems.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#354

Post by orwin » Sun, Sep 25, 2022, 10:44 PM UTC

k__ wrote: post #101

orwin wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not, its because it reached end of life, and the date we could've done something about it was ten years ago. I'm as pro-nuclear as you can be, since at least 2017 but especially since i've read about it, in 2019, but let's not blame nuclear failure on "green energy" when it's not. Nuclear tech have been abandonned by the general public and the politician since the 90s, and especailly after fuckushima, was faded…

Yes. We see how "well" it goes in France, where they kept nuclear going and now their reactors are rotting away under their butts and they have to import from Germany. Life in Europe would be better if conservatives wouldn't have failed us and we actually had "green energy" by now...

Actually, the nuclear situation in France is the exact same as Belgium, with the same causes, except in 2010 some investment were made to make the plant last twenty more years. Those investments weren't done between 2019 and 2022, for multiple reasons but with one base: the general public don't really care, nor like talking about nuclear plant. Conservatives have nothing to do with this, as they weren't really in power since 2012.

Energy is a complex issue, probably the most complex societal, technical and social issue we have, and trying to put everything on one single actor (or movement) do not make the discussion constructive. I'm for a diverse mix and reducing gas, oil and coal, not in percentage but in actual quantity (we don't really do this in europe sadly).

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#355

Post by wizofaus » Sun, Sep 25, 2022, 10:45 PM UTC

kennend3 wrote: post #254

Gwypaas wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Simply cost. If the plants started in the early 2000s would have been delivered on time and budget they would be a huge part of the transition today. Now nuclear costs 3-5x more compared to renewables and is simply not relevant. > "WIND" or "Solar" is not going to replace 3,500 MW of nuclear power without damaging a LOT of land. If land use is what you measure impact based on a much better target is the beef industry…

what·a·bout·ism /ˌ(h)wədəˈboudizəm/ noun BRITISH the technique or practice of responding to an accusation or difficult question by making a counteraccusation or raising a different issue. what does "beef" have to do with converting land to wind farms? perhaps you could respond back with how solar panels are not actually very environmentally friendly? They produce a lot of toxic chemicals to manufacture. Tell us, to r…

There's plenty of studies done comparing the footprint of nuclear to solar/wind, generally they show they're more or less equivalent, depending on what you measure and various assumptions built into the study - at least one IPCC study showed nuclear could have a measurably (up to 4x!) lower carbon footprint than solar. At any rate there's certainly no real reason to object to nuclear on environmental grounds (but on economical grounds, terrorism risk, plutonium proliferation, etc., sure, there are downsides that don't really exist with renewables).

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#356

Post by Gigachad » Sun, Sep 25, 2022, 10:48 PM UTC

hrpnk wrote: post #132

koheripbal wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something similar was done in Canada about 40 years ago with the high-usage lights installed in every home (usually next to the washer/dryer). If the light was on, people paid significantly more. It was very very effective at reducing peak consumption.

This is great, because it shows/teaches people what high-usage is. So far, I've seen very little guidance and advice to citizens on how exactly they can contribute to lower energy usage. Only businesses say they will stop production or change opening times. Is this a missed opportunity?

These days we have the tech to make this really smooth. Have a phone app with live prices, and integrate with iot makers so things like washing machines and dish washers can be set to trigger on the cheapest times.

Have houses automatically heat up earlier in the morning before people start waking up and consuming more power

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#357

Post by squarefoot » Sun, Sep 25, 2022, 11:09 PM UTC

bitL wrote: post #273

rightbyte wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have a gasoline car you can charge in that from the starter battery. A starter battery is about 1kWh. Or just keep a lead acid battery around charged up and connect a ciggarette lighter socket to it.

I was specifically curious about dedicated powerbanks. This discussion got sidetracked to cars.

This one isn't intended for cars, but apparently is powerful enough to be able to recharge one, and popular youtuber Bitluni modified it to do just that.

https://www.anker.com/eu-en/products/a1770

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZE447r1mFXM

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#358

Post by pydry » Sun, Sep 25, 2022, 11:09 PM UTC

panick21_ wrote: post #196

pydry wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>We need more nuclear power plants They're 5x more expensive than wind and solar and about 2x more expensive than a wind+solar+pumped storage combo. In France their capacity factor has declined to ~72% which is only about 5% above the best wind farms. What's the up side? I dont see it any more. It's an overpriced means of generating electricity that is slightly less variable that has a lead time of 19.5 years more th…

This 5x number is nonsense. Its generalizing for a few projects that happened in a time when there was very limited constructionist and because of 40 years of neglect not even a workforce that was available. > wind+solar+pumped storage combo Pumped storage is available in most places. And there is literally no alternative. Its insane to build a society on a technology that if something goes wrong, society only has 1-…

>This 5x number is nonsense.

Sadly it doesnt surprise me that youre surprised. You ought to check lazard for a full LCOE comparison. I didnt just make it up.

>France had advanced reactors in the 90s and guess what, instead of building them they were killed in the endless attempted by some forces (usually greens and left) to prevent nuclear from happening.

The greens never had enough political power to do that. Cost was the only reason France's nuclear industry struggled. It's the same reason it was just nationalized.

The nuclear lobby does share the oil industry's utter disdain both for the environment and environmentalists though, something it has apparently passed on to some of its more enthusiastic supporters.

It is so very, very obvious how much they hate the Germans with a for proving nuclear power doesnt need to be part of any green transition, for instance. This why certain groups will never shut up about the "environmental damage" done by Germany shutting down just two nuclear plants and never even mention Poland being 80% coal fired.

>Had Germany in 2000 simply started to build as many reactors as possible

Then theyd have run out of money. It's a good thing they didnt choose the 5x more expensive, slightly more dangerous and slower option. Unlike the nuclear industry they gave half a damn about global warming.

Maybe if Poland did the same thing they wouldnt be 80% coal powered.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#359

Post by retinaros » Sun, Sep 25, 2022, 11:15 PM UTC

sofixa wrote: post #293

retinaros wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

tomorrow your boss says to you he’s gonna reduce headcount in IT by 50%. what is your boss gonna do short term? is he gonna plan how he is gonna manage your promotion when you will be one of the few not fired or is he gonna focus on firing the 50% he needs so that shareholders are happy with stock price?

Not reduce by 50%, reduce to 50% from the current 50%. With the increasing electric consumption, it's barely a reduction in real terms at all.

it was 70% in 2021 not 50%. so you can take my sample and apply the reduce to 20% if you want and get the same outcome: it still sends the signal that they going away from nuclear. any kind of shareholder would vote against investing in the field… dont understand what you dont understand there.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#360

Post by throwawaylinux » Sun, Sep 25, 2022, 11:23 PM UTC

kennend3 wrote: post #281

moonchrome wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Now nuclear costs 3-5x more and is simply not relevant. Compared to what ? Energy prices have jumped 2-3x in some places so far, and it's not even winter yet. Comparing renewable prices as averages or whatever is fine if you like blackouts ?

This is the CORE of the energy debate.. People throw out whatever nonsense they like to support their position. "Nuclear costs 3-5x" and as you point out, compared to what? The cost of sitting around for 20 years debating this and not taking any action at all has lead to much worse problems - power shortages. These "anti-nuclear" types fail to apply logic to their debate. I asked how much power is produced by solar d…

Coal has been at all time record highs the past couple of years (well before Russia Ukraine war), and it's not even close. Like 3x previous record highs and more like 6x usual prices.

10 years ago I was assured that coal was dead, killed by wind and solar, which were already cheaper than coal at $60/T, and falling. How is it possible then that 10 years on with all the vastly expanded and even cheaper and better renewables, that people are paying $430/T for coal? And it's not the remaining few legacy assets winding down as they compete for a dwindling supply of fuel, global coal production is rising, new coal power plants are being built.

I've never heard any of these people go back and reflect on what they got wrong about their predictions about coal, what they missed and where their logic was flawed. What I do hear frequently though is "nuclear is dead, renewables are already cheaper"... I'm a little less open minded this time around.