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The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

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Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#351
"Misery distributes itself throughout a system."

High rents mean that a lot of people like a place enough that they'll fight (economically) to live there. The fact that you've lived in a place since before other people might feel like that should entitle you to low rent, but it doesn't, that's not how markets set prices.

High rents are just once aspect of "unpleasantness", and people will move around till the misery is equally distributed. Economies ebb and flow and shift from place to place, so it the process never ends, but don't be fooled, there is nothing broken about systems of market real estate prices, in a sense they're the final leveling of a system, the equalizer of all other desires.

It's like currency exchange rates, whichever way they go, there's good an bad, can afford more foreign goods but nobody wants to buy your goods, or can't afford foreign goods but can sell exports. But there's nothing to "do" about exchange rates, accept them as given and plan accordingly.

Bad transportation problem in your city? Think the new public works project is going to fix it? Think again, better transportation makes for more efficient redistribution of misery.

Now, I don't mean to sound negative: the redistribution of misery is a leveling, like stock prices going up and down with every trade, there is still a buyer who wants in and a seller who wants out. The redistribution of misery always entails some people getting less miserable.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#352

Yes, the situation is dire. I live in Lisbon as a foreigner for more than 12 years now. We pay a rent for a small flat that used to be very expensive and now is on the cheap side in our quarter of the city. Luckily, we have an older contract that cannot be changed as easily as newer ones. I'm not thrilled by the possibility that our landlord might cancel it some day, however, e.g. for relatives to move in. Rents in t…

Many dislike the idea, but this is why people turn to "nationalism". If you want to decrease unemployment, you add tariffs for imports enabling more businesses to open domestically (i.e. tariffs effectively increase import costs). Similarly, you can loosen building codes to increase production of homes, limit visa duration, require citizenship for home ownership, etc. Those are some obvious fixes, why is the governme…

Nitrogen reduction was the very least dutch government could do and most people in netherlands support the law.

We should vastly reduce cattle numbers globally actually.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#353

This sounds like what happened in the SFbay area(south bay/pennisula), I grew up there and it used to be a great place to live, center left politics, lots of families and a diverse set of industries with many middle class opportunities. right around 10-15 years ago things started to change dramatically for the worse, housing and costs everywhere skyrocketed, homeless population exploded, politics veered hard left. Mo…

I totally understand your pain in seeing your hometown turning into a hellish zone but I can't pass on calling the irony in your story since these same Cali exiles are one of the principal factors in pricing ordinary locals in Portugal out of their neighborhoods. SOURCE Welcome to Portugal, the new expat haven. Californians, please go home https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-05-12/califo...

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Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#354

Very difficult to change because, in the "Pax Neoliberalia" world we live in, profits are Sacrosanct - and the higher the capital concentration, the holier so. But some straightforward fixes: 1. Flood the market with affordable state housing, Austria-style - with the bonus of building new, boosting the national economy. 2. Create very progressive (rapidly rising) taxes based on property value - making untenable the c…

Well #1 is not 'straightfoward' fixes at all. Massive Real Estate buildouts are 'gigantic' industrial projects. A 'straight forward fix' is to ban foreign ownership of homes and AirBnB. Poof. Now, I wouldn't support that, but it would be 'straight forward'. #2 is reasonable. #3 is a big glib tough. "Hey, everyone should just get a raise!", if it were only that easy!

> Poof

This has pretty much already been done in Vancouver, which has layers of Foreign Buyer Taxes, Speculation Taxes, Empty Home Taxes and strict Airbnb regulation.

It absolutely did not make the problem go 'poof.'

All these things were well worth doing and helped in various ways, but it remains that the core underlying problem is that there's not enough homes for everyone and scarcity ensures high rents and high prices. The dull solution is that a hell of a lot of homes need to be built.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#355
post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of people moved into the bay area for the good jobs, nice weather and nature. Once housing demand pushed above supply, prices started shooting up. Those locals whose incomes didn't grow were pushed out of their homes. The bay area is boxed in by the hills so hard to expand out. Also a lot of the land was already build up with single family homes and other low density housing a long time ago so upgrading the den…

Actually California natives have one good thing going for them. Prop 13. So if you or your parents have lived in the house for 30+ years you're likely to pay $2K in property taxes on a $1M house (annually). The lack of middle-class jobs is a whole different story.

Not just natives. Anyone who moved here a decade back might benefit. I grew up here but it was still difficult to buy a house when young because the housing prices kept ahead of salaries. The drop in prices during the last recession is what gave me the chance.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#356

Yes, the situation is dire. I live in Lisbon as a foreigner for more than 12 years now. We pay a rent for a small flat that used to be very expensive and now is on the cheap side in our quarter of the city. Luckily, we have an older contract that cannot be changed as easily as newer ones. I'm not thrilled by the possibility that our landlord might cancel it some day, however, e.g. for relatives to move in. Rents in t…

Many dislike the idea, but this is why people turn to "nationalism". If you want to decrease unemployment, you add tariffs for imports enabling more businesses to open domestically (i.e. tariffs effectively increase import costs). Similarly, you can loosen building codes to increase production of homes, limit visa duration, require citizenship for home ownership, etc. Those are some obvious fixes, why is the governme…

Europe largely isn't reproducing. It has to allow immigration for its survival.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#357

This sounds like what happened in the SFbay area(south bay/pennisula), I grew up there and it used to be a great place to live, center left politics, lots of families and a diverse set of industries with many middle class opportunities. right around 10-15 years ago things started to change dramatically for the worse, housing and costs everywhere skyrocketed, homeless population exploded, politics veered hard left. Mo…

I totally understand your pain in seeing your hometown turning into a hellish zone but I can't pass on calling the irony in your story since these same Cali exiles are one of the principal factors in pricing ordinary locals in Portugal out of their neighborhoods. SOURCE Welcome to Portugal, the new expat haven. Californians, please go home https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-05-12/califo...

I'd love to see so much as a tiny shred of evidence of this, it doesn't pass the smell test.

Austin? Ok, sure. How many Californians are expatriating to Lisbon? Is it that many? Ok, let's do Londoners next.

A lot more right?

Principal factors, you say. Let's see it.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#358
post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In what way is building more housing simple? If it were that straightforward, California (which has much more space and money) would have done it, and Californians wouldn't be moving to Portugal.

we somehow managed to build houses for thousands of years, so it can't be that hard, can it? the scarcity is entirely artificial.

Historically most people didn’t live in single family homes. They lived in very crowded, multi-generational and small dwellings connected to many neighbors. Shared public spaces were used for getting together, etc. Most dwellings did not have kitchens, etc. Our idea of a home for “regular people” is radically different than what people have lived in.

People need to probably drastically limit what they think of when they think of affordable housing. Think multi-family homes where each dwelling supports 4 people and is Look to the disposable homes of Japan I guess.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How this usually works: "I'd do anything for lower housing prices!" Build more housing. "...but I won't do that."

Greece has the exact same problem. Rents are skyrocketing and people can't afford to live in their own cities. We're building more housing, but it doesn't seem to be helping. Maybe SF doesn't want to build more housing, but this isn't universal.

My experience with most people saying "we are building more housing" is that they drastically overestimate how much housing is getting built, especially relative to yesteryear. If you look at net increase in units YoY, it's usually quite modest even for booming, "in-demand" areas.

The other part is that the same things that make it slower to build more housing also make it more expensive, all the various bureaucratic processes.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We pay a rent for a small flat that used to be very expensive and now is on the cheap side in our quarter of the city Portugal should build more housing, which is a simple, effective solution if the rent is too damn high: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/03/the-ren... . The nice thing about indoor space is that we can make pretty much as much of it as we'd like.

> The nice thing about indoor space is that we can make pretty much as much of it as we'd like. What? Have you ever been in Lisbon? The city is pretty dense as it is. You could mostly just build higher, and that has its limits too, depending on the structure and foundation. Adding more housing outside the core of the city might not be attractive enough. And increasing the density of people also means you need to incr…

Even outside it.

Took a train to Sintra, there were endless and endless 6 story-miles long buildings forever. Portugal seems insanely dense.

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