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Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

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Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem really defensive about this for some reason.

That seems to be a veiled accusation. Maybe you have heard about Russian bots on TV or something. Let me clarify my motives for you. I am not happy with the approach the West has taken in towards this conflict. Most particularly the coup in 2014 and the urging of non settlement early. It has cost the lives of thousands of young Ukrainian men. And for very little purpose. The formerly Russian/ high Russian population…

Your position is that the correct thing for a nominal liberal democracy to do is to encourage another nominal liberal democracy to give it's sovereign territory to a government that is, to put it charitably, ruled by executive decree? Because...they want it?

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#352

There are solutions, just unpopular and require a political class that is not fickle and weak. Solution #1. Capitulate to Putin and treat Russia as a regional power that can gobble and punish its neighbors when they stray too far. Solution #2. Forget about the climate for the next 5 years, turn on all coal, nuclear powerplants. Solution #3. Put the Euro printer in overdrive and pay whatever price needed for the littl…

I am a fan of nuclear energy, but German nuclear powerplants have been underinvested for years because of the pending Atomausstieg (nuclear exit). It didn't make economic sense to maintain facilities that were on their way out anyway. So they are likely not in shape to be turned on again.

Worst case if you short out all the safeties and just run it anyways is a meltdown, but Germany's reactors have containment structures. So a meltdown just means that the decommissioning process for your reactor has become a LOT more expensive, but it's not going to cause another Chernobyl.

Similarly, if they were willing to say "fuckit, this may end up being extremely expensive in 10 years but we need it now or we freeze to death", they could start building (potentially) unsafe reactors in unapproved locations with inadequate documentation of their material supply chains and have that ready by February. Yes, there are long lead times for things like approved reactor pressure vessels. But if you're willing to go back to Hanford, Washington [0] safety standards that all goes out the window, and the math on deaths almost certainly still works out.

0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanford_Site

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#353
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Solution #1 - we already tried that, we gave Putin Crimea in 2014, everything was chill for 7-8 years and now we have this mess. If we give him Donetsk and Luhansk, he'll just be back for more + Moldova in 5-6 years.

How are you in charge of not giving or giving some East European watering holes to Russia? Can you establish the set of facts here. I can tell that a real NATO deployment to D & L would dramatically change the strategic goal setting of Russia, materially alter the outcome, but not sanctions if that's what you are suggesting as deciding the fate of these places.

Me as in western countries. If the west cuts all support for Ukraine - how long would they last?

If Germany starts freezing in the winter with no Russian gas, you’ll start hearing about “bringing about peace” real quick.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That seems to be a veiled accusation. Maybe you have heard about Russian bots on TV or something. Let me clarify my motives for you. I am not happy with the approach the West has taken in towards this conflict. Most particularly the coup in 2014 and the urging of non settlement early. It has cost the lives of thousands of young Ukrainian men. And for very little purpose. The formerly Russian/ high Russian population…

Your position is that the correct thing for a nominal liberal democracy to do is to encourage another nominal liberal democracy to give it's sovereign territory to a government that is, to put it charitably, ruled by executive decree? Because...they want it?

I'm not sure how much of an understanding you have about what is going on there.

The Russian speaking areas do not want to be part of Ukraine after the 2014 coup. The one that was full of Western intelligence and US politicians, including the wife of Iraq war proponent Robert Kagan who is currently serving under Biden.

Many of these areas were part of Russia up until the Soviet Union, most particularly Crimea which was part of Russia from the 1700s until 1954. The people there are Russian. And, there wasn't really an issue until the coup which outset a democratically elected president. After that Russia took Crimea back (with a vote by the locals for whatever that is worth). The other breakaway republics were indiscriminately shelled for over 8 years. Over 14,000 people were killed which is nearly 3 times the amount of civilian casualties Russia has inflicted to date.

Also, Russia has been invaded along this (open) route a few times over the past couple of hundred years. Hitler and Napoleon. Millions died. Putins older brother in fact died as an infant during the Nazi siege.

So when Ukraine starts talking about getting nukes, joining NATO, have literal Nazi brigades attacking the breakaway republics and amassing hundreds of thousands of troops in the East to attack the breakaway republics and "get Crimea back" the Russians will just sit there? No, they will not. Now, again, their other aim is to get exclusive control of the Black Sea and take the oil and agricultural rich areas of the east, as well as increase their population. And we handed them a figleaf like dummies. They have a lot of legal ground. Putin is actually a lawyer (a fact lots of people don't know).

Let the people chose their destiny. Like we did in Kosovo when we wanted to put an airbase there. But no, that doesn't apply in this case. So it has heated up to this. I hope it settles down but the longer it goes on the worse for Ukraine. We should be urging peaceful settlement, not adding fuel to the fire.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the explanation for this? I mean, surely the explanation isn't that Trump is secretly a well informed and thoughtful person?

My explanation is that it doesn’t actually take a lot of deep thought to understand this dynamic. The guy who runs your local hardware store could’ve figured this one out, given the information. The problem is that the over “educated” and credentialed class of political elites weren’t ever taught elementary common sense in their textbooks, and have never operated within institutions that have held them accountable fo…

No post body was provided.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't have to imagine, it is commonplace around the world. Lots of tax revenue from countries all around the world is distributed to different areas of the country/world (obvious e.g. foreign aid). If the amount of tax isn't excessive, allows everyone to have a good standard of living, and is resulting in something positive, why not?

As a US citizen, there is no way I would stand for getting taxed to pay 100% of a home improvement bill in Canada. In hindsight, brexit is starting to look pretty damn smart

Guess who has and is building up more (two very large new terminals) infractructure for unloading LNG from the sea and moving it to continental Europe (also EU funds weren't actually used).

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#357
post #339

Frankly, I think it's embarrassing that such a large part of Europe is still so dependent on natural gas. It's being portrayed as a problem now due to economics, but global warming and making yourself dependent on authoritarian regimes has been an issue for much longer than that. The switch should have happened much sooner, but I guess the money was always more important and Russian gas was cheap enough to forget abo…

Because they are morons and shut down their nuclear plants and bet everything on Russian gas and renewables that aren't even designed to provide baseload. They absolutely should have seen this coming.

Might be true for Germany, but other countries are also dependent on natural gas. In 2018 natural gas accounted for 45% of Italy's electricity production [0], in 2021 28% of Hungary's electricity came from gas [1]. And that's just electricity, 63% [2] of Europeans energy consumption is used for heating, I would guess a large part of that is gas as well.

This is bigger than Germany closing some nuclear plants, although that obviously isn't helping. Despite knowing that natural gas is a fossil fuel that we need to stop using the cost of using it hasn't been high enough to dissuade using it. This sudden increase in cost and the crisis it has and will cause really shows that economy is the only thing that matters, people will continue burning whatever they can get as long as it's cheap, since the external cost of global warming isn't properly included in the price. Neither was security risks, and we're all paying for that now.

[0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/873552/energy-mix-in-ita...

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1235432/hungary-distribu...

[2] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php...

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#358
post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone wants to build nuclear. People get quiet when they realize that the energy investors won't pay for it so you end up with Uncle Sam footing the bill. Any analyst just looks at the financial disaster that is Vogtie and it becomes impossible to justify investment. Unless the government bankrolls you. In the US, we need to get comfortable with the government owning large swathes of energy production capacity. Un…

How does China build 24 Gen III+ reactors in 10 years, and we spend billions in court arguing about environmental reviews. We F ourselves because we don't allow construction companies to do their jobs.

It's not the environmentalism that gets us. In fact even if there were no environmental rules or any other regulations at all, we'd still have Vogtie in the mess it's in.

Construction costs money and time. Metallurgy costs money and time. And on and on and on.

I doubt we could build a reactor for less than USD5 Billion even with no regulations at all. This stuff takes time, and if you don't get it right, the damn things don't work. It's not like they work with less efficiency, they just don't work at all if any one of a thousand critical things is done incorrectly. Then that has to be fixed, and you try again. And so on.

And keep in mind, that's for designs we are familiar with and understand. Just imagine trying to build and scale out the new designs. When it comes to the new designs, what is it that we don't know that we don't know? How much time and money will those mistakes cost?

It's about a lot more than environmentalism.

Put in layman's terms: "This stuff is just hard."

Getting rid of regulations helps some. Getting rid of the need to actually make any kind of money by making the government shoulder the costs helps even more. But in the end, you're still left with constructing a nuclear plant. Which is an extremely hard problem that is enormously expensive to solve.

So put yourself in the place of an energy investor, what's s/he going to do? Raise USD5 Billion to spend on the hopes that we can actually construct one of these correctly and under budget in under 10 years? Or just keep slapping up wind farms and start pulling in his/her generation fee in less than a month?

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your position is that the correct thing for a nominal liberal democracy to do is to encourage another nominal liberal democracy to give it's sovereign territory to a government that is, to put it charitably, ruled by executive decree? Because...they want it?

I'm not sure how much of an understanding you have about what is going on there. The Russian speaking areas do not want to be part of Ukraine after the 2014 coup. The one that was full of Western intelligence and US politicians, including the wife of Iraq war proponent Robert Kagan who is currently serving under Biden. Many of these areas were part of Russia up until the Soviet Union, most particularly Crimea which w…

You absolutely DON'T understand what is going on there.

The President of Ukraine is one of those Russian speaking Ukrainians that you're talking about. Why don't you ask him whether he would prefer to be part of Ukraine or Russia?

According to polls, Russian speaking Ukrainians overwhelmingly want to be in an independent Ukraine. And the longer the fighting goes on, the stronger that support gets. Strip away Russian propaganda, and "Russian speaking Ukrainians want to be in Russia" turns out to be a fantasy.

It is likewise only in Russian propaganda that Ukraine was looking to get nukes, or was on a course to join NATO. The "breakaway republics" in fact were invaded by Russia in 2014. Yes, the "green men" weren't wearing their Russian military insignia, but nobody was actually fooled. And satellite photos confirmed that the artillery was being fired from Russian territory. See https://iphronline.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Joint-repo... if you doubt me.

I'm not happy with everything we did involving Euromaiden. But Russia had set a democratically elected leader on a course to take over and become a Russia-friendly dictator. Ukraine need look no farther than Belarus to see how that story turns out. Describing it as the overthrow of a democratic regime is at best a half-truth. Probably no more than a quarter truth.

When it comes to legal issues, Russia HAS no legal ground other than a military, a willingness to lie, and other people's unwillingness to confront them.

Let's talk about the whole Nazi thing. It is true that the Azov battalion started as white supremacists, and got absorbed into Ukraine's military. (Then toned down the whole white supremacist thing a lot.) However this problem exists on both sides, and there are likely more white supremacists fighting on the Russian side than the Ukrainian. If this comes as a surprise to you, start with https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-neo-nazis-fighting-ukraine/3... for some of the basics. Worse yet, Russia has actively solicited, and received, international support from white supremacist organizations. Supporters like Steve Bannon opened doors, and are part of how we have Russian propaganda being spewed over Fox News by people like Steve Hannity.

Despite Russian rhetoric about "denazification", it is Russia that has sought out and obtained support from neo-Nazis and those sympathetic to them.

And so we see that again and again, you are consistently misinformed. You've swallowed Russian propaganda on issue after issue. This is in addition to your unwillingness to call a spade a spade and recognize Russian genocide as what it is.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#360
post #359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure how much of an understanding you have about what is going on there. The Russian speaking areas do not want to be part of Ukraine after the 2014 coup. The one that was full of Western intelligence and US politicians, including the wife of Iraq war proponent Robert Kagan who is currently serving under Biden. Many of these areas were part of Russia up until the Soviet Union, most particularly Crimea which w…

You absolutely DON'T understand what is going on there. The President of Ukraine is one of those Russian speaking Ukrainians that you're talking about. Why don't you ask him whether he would prefer to be part of Ukraine or Russia? According to polls, Russian speaking Ukrainians overwhelmingly want to be in an independent Ukraine. And the longer the fighting goes on, the stronger that support gets. Strip away Russian…

Ok, so the breakaway Republics secretly wish to join the West but Dennis Pushilin is holding them hostage. Ridiculous.

I would advise against compounded the many many bad moves that have been made so far but it's free world.

What I stated is historical and geopolitical fact. Without (near as I can tell) much bias. It's not propaganda, it's the truth. Yes, Russia has traditionally been an expansionist power. Yes, they are looking for advantage.

But a whole lot of ethnic hatred and stupidity and Western involvement has made this even easier for them.

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