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Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

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Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#351

Post by giantrobot »

coenhyde wrote: post #317
giantrobot wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't see legacy auto being capable of refactoring their cars, manufacturing processes and business models fast enough to survive. That doesn't make any sense. "Legacy auto" knows how to make cars. To their final assembly factories there's not a huge difference between a BEV, PHEV, or an ICE drive train. So long as they feed in components they get cars out. They definitely know how to get components made to feed…

> That doesn't make any sense. "Legacy auto" knows how to make cars. To their final assembly factories there's not a huge difference between a BEV, PHEV, or an ICE drive train. So long as they feed in components they get cars out. They definitely know how to get components made to feed into their factories. That's the problem. When they do it that way, they don't make a profit on BEV's. "Legacy auto" got good at buil…

> That margin will continue to grow and then turn into a weapon when Tesla needs to be competitive.

This does not follow at all. Tesla sells their barely up market cars at luxury car prices and makes a significant amount of money off selling emission credits and raking in other government subsidies.

As "legacy auto" manufacturers ramp up their EV production they won't need to buy emission credits from Tesla. They'll also themselves be eligible for the bottom line boosting government subsidies.

I also don't see Tesla being able to compete on luxury as they have significant problems with fit and finish. Now that traditional luxury brands have solid EV offerings it seems unlikely Tesla will be able to keep their margins and increase their sales volume.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#352

Post by kaba0 »

01100011 wrote: post #332
mikeyouse wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And Jobs' "reality distortion field" was primarily used to motivate / burn-out his team by demanding things that were technically very difficult but feasible (one of the original anecdotes was about reducing the boot-time for the original Macintosh), not something like solving AGI which FSD would ~apparently require.

I fully believe Elon and Jim Keller truly thought the deep learning HW delivered by Tesla was capable of self-driving in the early 201x time frame because, frankly, a lot of us did. More than likely, like the rest of us, they slowly came to see that the problem was much more difficult, and deep learning much less capable, than we had originally envisioned. Most of us didn't make a bunch of stupid promises to sharehol…

Betting on vision-only self-driving was still a very bad bet, not only in hindsight. The competition all added additional sensors.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#353

Post by kaba0 »

TheAlchemist wrote: post #4

Well, Musk said recently that the value of Tesla is 0 without FSD. Does anybody seriously think Karpathy would step down if FSD was really close to be released ?? It really starts to feel like Tesla is a huge fraud which is about to be uncovered.

> It really starts to feel like Tesla is a huge fraud which is about to be uncovered.

It was always the case.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#354

Post by tooltalk »

jeffbee wrote: post #39
01100011 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For how long though? It seems like traditional automakers have mostly figured out EVs now. I love my Chevy EV, and it's 4 years old now. Similarly, the Kia EV I recently drove was excellent(although the Bolt one pedal driving is better IMHO).

If I have to pick a side in the battle of who can produce the most cheap batteries, an insane Twitter addict or state-controlled industries of South Korea, I'm going with the Koreans.

Hyundai Motor Group is state-controlled? You mean like GM?

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#355

Post by kaba0 »

dreamcompiler wrote: post #34
TheAlchemist wrote: post #4

Well, Musk said recently that the value of Tesla is 0 without FSD. Does anybody seriously think Karpathy would step down if FSD was really close to be released ?? It really starts to feel like Tesla is a huge fraud which is about to be uncovered.

If Musk actually said this he's an even bigger idiot than I gave him credit for. He makes the best cars in the world (obviously IMHO) and that's worth a lot more than 0. I couldn't give less of a damn if they can't drive themselves.

How are they the best cars in the world? I saw you add IMHO, but unless you mean it like children saying t-rex being the best dino, it really doesn’t bode well with reality.

Like, at least give one metric on which they are measurably “the best”.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#356

Post by pas »

kaba0 wrote: post #348
elif wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FSD beta tester here. I think they are minimum 3 years away from anything exciting beta.. but the localization, mapping, and visualization are not the reason. I don't think LIDAR would contribute substantially to improvement. The fundamental flaws are in the decision-making being based upon 10-30 second feature memory, ignoring features outright, and only depending on visible road features instead of persisted map da…

That’s not 3 years away, it’s lacking fundamental knowledge of the world, which might require GAI to begin with. It is just shitty drive assist features sold as much more.

it definitely needs a broad knowledge base about all things road/traffic/sign related, but that's definitely not G nor fundamental.

still a very hard problem.

but what it requires is a consistent world model. and if it detects that the current stretch of road is incomprehensible for its model it should safely disengage.

of course Tesla opted for the cowboy version of this, and turned the confidence of the model up .. without having a good model :|

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#357

Post by practice9 »

atombender wrote: post #168
practice9 wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And still Teslas sell better both in EU & China than all those EVs you mentioned

They sell better than any single car brand, sure, but much less as a fraction of the market. Their market share in Europe has been around 25% (compared to around 70% in the US). And it's falling. In March 2022, Tesla's market share was just 10.5%.

There is a large demand for EVs for multiple reasons (incl. the current energy crisis) and Tesla is not scaling fast enough. It's great that others also started producing EVs (consumer choice, price etc.).

But in absolute numbers it will not be easy to catch up, as batteries are a limiting factor.

Energy efficiency in modern EV brands also isn't very good, which requires putting more battery (and weight) into the car. (perhaps excluding Hyundai Ioniq-s)

Combined with fast scaling of the car production + high price of lithium batteries, this will limit how many cars can be produced or increase the car price for the consumer.

This may change if manufacturers will start improving efficiency or building battery factories for themselves. Which I think only VW is currently planning to do

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#358

Post by mrmlz »

01100011 wrote: post #332
mikeyouse wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And Jobs' "reality distortion field" was primarily used to motivate / burn-out his team by demanding things that were technically very difficult but feasible (one of the original anecdotes was about reducing the boot-time for the original Macintosh), not something like solving AGI which FSD would ~apparently require.

I fully believe Elon and Jim Keller truly thought the deep learning HW delivered by Tesla was capable of self-driving in the early 201x time frame because, frankly, a lot of us did. More than likely, like the rest of us, they slowly came to see that the problem was much more difficult, and deep learning much less capable, than we had originally envisioned. Most of us didn't make a bunch of stupid promises to sharehol…

As someone who has worked for almost a decade with safety critical software, system design and functional safety analyses (both aerospace and automotive) etc. I don't think I ever met anyone who believed they would be anywhere near FSD/Level-5 what-have-you in the timeframe they presented.

The only ones I met who thought so was managers and software developers and ML-people, i.e. people who has never in their life seen the level of effort it actually takes to get something qualified for RTCA or other safety standards.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#360

Post by tarsinge »

antisthenes wrote: post #310
Animats wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo and Cruise routinely have driverless cars on city streets. In California, all collisions, however minor, have to be reported, and DMV posts them on their web site.[1] Most are very minor. Here's a more serious one from last month: " A Cruise autonomous vehicle ("Cruise AV") operating in driverless autonomous mode, was traveling eastbound on Geary Boulevard toward the intersection with Spruce Street. As it appro…

> By not doing so, it did the legally correct thing. The other driver will be blamed for this. But it may not have done the thing most likely to avoid an accident. This is the real version of the trolley problem. It performed the only sane solution to the problem - stopping. You can't possibly predict what the most likely thing is to avoid an accident, because there is a multitude of factors beyond just 2 cars moving…

> It performed the only sane solution to the problem - stopping. You can't possibly predict what the most likely thing is to avoid an accident, because there is a multitude of factors beyond just 2 cars moving towards each other. Are there pedestrians present? Other parked cars? Storefronts with customers inside? How close to the sidewalk? Trees? Construction/Debris?

Not only there are other factors, but you also need to predict what the other human driver will do. As stated in a sibling comment this is a huge part of safe driving.

> Once we get AI working better than 99.9% of humans on roads

But what you stated above require AGI, so what's the plan to get there? It's even more blurry than commercial fusion at that point.

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