Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine • Hacker News Board

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#351

Post by selfhoster11 » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 5:45 PM UTC

landemva wrote: post #322

TheCoelacanth wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No shit. Russia just launched an unprovoked attack on another country. That's about the farthest from "just getting along" that you can get. Is it any wonder that people who like peace get mad when countries start wars?

Which people like peace? Modern USA two decades in Afghanistan?

People exist in the West outside the USA, you know. They also have their own agency and a fear of Russia annexing their countries thanks to the close proximity to the current conflict.

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#352

Post by selfhoster11 » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 5:47 PM UTC

georgia_peach wrote: post #294

torstenvl wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is nothing complex about it. They're bombing hospitals and schools and they're doing it intentionally.

Just like we do! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kunduz_hospital_airstrike https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wech_Baghtu_wedding_party_airs...

"We"? I don't remember becoming American anytime recently.

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#353

Post by selfhoster11 » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 5:48 PM UTC

Grustaf wrote: post #182

foogazi wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We are literally sacrificing their country and encouraging suicide. Who is we ? A) President Z and the Ukrainian army can literally wave the white flag and let the Russian tanks roll into Kiev - they are the ones doing the sacrifice here B) Or President Putin can give the order to withdraw Who else need to be involved here ?

The West is clearly egging the Ukrainians on.

More like, Ukrainians want to fight and the West is sending weapons their way. It's not as much egging on as it is providing a force multiplier.

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#354

Post by selfhoster11 » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 5:50 PM UTC

Grustaf wrote: post #198

foogazi wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The West is clearly egging the Ukrainians on Is that why they keep fighting? OTOH The east is clearly bombing Ukraine

They're fighting because they are being attacked, and because Slavs are courageous and stubborn. But the West are not telling them to give up, to save civilian lives. Instead they encourage them to keep fighting, delaying the inevitable. I don't know by how many days that will prolong the war, but it's reckless.

If you said something like that to a Polish person during early days of WW2, they would slap you in the face, or worse. You have no right to say something like that. If Ukrainians want to fight until the end, that is a choice they can make.

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#355

Post by selfhoster11 » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 5:58 PM UTC

qiskit wrote: post #219

dragonwriter wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russia allowed NATO to gobble up country after country all the way to Russia's borders. NATO didn't gobble them up, they voluntarily joined, and they weren't Russian colonies such that it was a matter of Russia “letting” anyone do anything. Russia is the one that has been literally gobbling up (at least parts of, prior to the most recent attempt) neighboring cointries.

That's a very naive take. They weren't russian colonies but they were within its sphere of influence. Just like cuba, canada and the entire western hemisphere is within our sphere of influence. Do you know what would have lead to an invasion of canada? Canada's request to join the soviet union. Every major power has its sphere of influence and limits. The only shame is that we don't get to feel the pain of our action…

Naive it not, these countries have a right to self-determination and sovereignty, especially after what the USSR has been doing to them for decades.

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#356

Post by Grustaf » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 6:03 PM UTC

microtherion wrote: post #348

Grustaf wrote: post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Last I read he explicitly said that this was not his goal. When did he say that?

This Thursday, apparently: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/ukraine-russia-evening-... And if you don't trust secondhand reports of a phone call between him & Macron, there is also a public statement today to similar effect, though couched in "look what you might make me do" rhetoric: https://news.yahoo.com/putin-warns-ukraine-might-lose-160156...

I mean sure he's planning to "seize all of Ukraine", but I don't think he wanted to make Ukraine a federal subject, at least originally. My theory was always that he wanted to capture Ukraine to force a very favourable (for him) peace agreement, install a loyal regime, keep Crimea, give independence to the Lugansk and Donetsk republics, with borders corresponding to the oblasts, and then leave. Possibly make the republics federal subjects of Russia.

The statehood threat actually strengthens my belief, it sounds like he will only annihilate Ukraine unless they give up soon. If he was planning to do that anyway, the threat makes less sense.

But of course I'm just guessing.

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#357

Post by Grustaf » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 6:12 PM UTC

selfhoster11 wrote: post #354

Grustaf wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're fighting because they are being attacked, and because Slavs are courageous and stubborn. But the West are not telling them to give up, to save civilian lives. Instead they encourage them to keep fighting, delaying the inevitable. I don't know by how many days that will prolong the war, but it's reckless.

If you said something like that to a Polish person during early days of WW2, they would slap you in the face, or worse. You have no right to say something like that. If Ukrainians want to fight until the end, that is a choice they can make.

I'm not saying they "can't make that choice". I'm saying it's a bad idea to make that choice. If Russia tried to invade Sweden, my home country, I would say the same. Resisting an overwhelming force might sound good on paper, but when it's your own country that is being laid waste to it's different. If Finland tried to invade, fighting back would be more attractive.

The comparison with Poland and the Nazis is not an apt one. The Nazis despised Slavs, and life under German occupation would be terrible, WAS terrible. Unless you believe the craziest Western propaganda, you know that Russia has no plans to set up concentration camps, Russians consider Ukraine a brother, not a lesser form of human. If Ukraine waves the white flag Putin will most likely install a loyal government, peel off DNR and LNR, keep Crimea, establish some Russian military bases and then leave.

Life in Ukraine as a Russian vassal state would be nothing like life as a Pole under Nazi Germany, it's not a reasonable comparison. It would be more like living in Belarus. That's not amazing, but it's better than total destruction.

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#358

Post by Grustaf » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 6:21 PM UTC

jazzyjackson wrote: post #339

Grustaf wrote: post #335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What is the purpose of fighting? Have you looked at Russia? ukrainians would like to remain free of totalitarianism and will die trying. They will not accept becoming a vassal state. What is the alternative to fighting? The point is that it seems completely hopeless without direct military help from the West. Looked at Russia, in what sense? I have lived there, so I know what life is like there, but I don't know th…

> Looked at Russia, in what sense? I will respect that you know better than me, an American that would like to see the sights of Russia one day. In the sense that Putin murders/poisons his political opponents and journalists like Navalny & Politkovskaya, tortures and imprisons activists like Magnitsky and Nadya Tolokno. I can sympathize with anyone who would avoid a government responsible for such acts, granting that…

> In the sense that Putin murders/poisons his political opponents and journalists like Navalny & Politkovskaya, tortures and imprisons activists like Magnitsky and Nadya Tolokno.

In that regard, Ukraine is doing much better. But it's nevertheless utterly corrupt, and Zelensky has been closing down opposition media, but as far as I know they're not killing journalists or jailing opposition politicians. But politics are sort of a moot point, since the oligarchs essentially run the country as they wish.

> I can sympathize with anyone who would avoid a government responsible for such acts, granting that I'm ignorant of any Ukrainian equivelancies.

Sure, we all want freedom of speech, freedom of the press etc, but is it worth dying for? Especially if you're desperately poor?

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#359

Post by cpleppert » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 6:25 PM UTC

zozbot234 wrote: post #336

cpleppert wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>You want to talk about power? China has certainly gained plenty of real-world power since the days of Mao Zedong. From the perspective of power maximizing their willingness to go to war is puzzling. But most research suggests states are not power maximizing but rather security maximizing. States don't consider their military potential in a vacuum but rather relative to other states that could disrupt their security…

I might agree but "states" here should really mean "decision making elites within states". It's not like "Russia" as a country fears for her security (that's of course a category error!), it's more that there's a pretty well-defined elite of people with decision making power within Russia who fear that their current power might not be stable. Democracy helps solve these screwed up incentives by vesting sovereignty (t…

I don't mean of course that states are somehow sentient entities but decision makers in charge of states are, not surprisingly, very interested in the security of the thing they are in charge of.

I disagree that the decision makers in Russia who made the decision for war were motivated mostly in their own hold on power. If they were, they probably would not engage in such a risky business as a major war. Power is more secure in a stable political environment. To take one example, decision makers in Germany before the first world war had no illusions that a major industrialized european war was risky for the political order and its outcome was very uncertain. One reason why Germany refused to expand conscription was the fear the aristocratic class would lose power in any new citizen army with mass conscription( which in fact, happened).

So even in an autocracy this incentive problem still exists. Democracy certainly reduces the incentives for decision makers to go to war over security concerns but even in a democratic states these cross cutting concerns of political stability and economic well being could find themselves at odds with having to ensure the security of the state that makes such prosperity possible.

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#360

Post by s1artibartfast » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 8:05 PM UTC

credit_guy wrote: post #343

s1artibartfast wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In concrete examples if a future conflict of interests arises: They could shut down more airspace to russian reinforcement of allies. They could more easily cut off access access ports in the black sea. They could invade Belarus on a new front. They could move conventional and nuclear bombers closer to moscow. They could arm Russian revolutionaries using the land boarder. Being encircled makes it harder for Russia to…

All these could be valid grievances. Great powers keep poking and prodding each other all the time. Russia does all sorts of chicanery back. They are mounting right not psy ops in Eastern Europe (e.g. the current "word" over there is that they are in danger of being nuked because of the US bases, and it's all US's fault, they'd be just fine if US got out of there... and some people swallow that stuff hook, line and s…

Ukraine was a game of chicken where Russia had something to lose from backing down and they do had nothing to lose from backing down