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The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to mental health, healthier economy

telegraph.co.uk

351–360 of 442 posts

Re: The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to mental health, healthier economy

#351
post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The guardian is left leaning culturally but actually fairly centrist economically. They get stick from Tories who call them elitist Londoners (this is deeply ironic, but that's for another comment) and even more stick from proper lefties who don't believe they are on their side enough.

And the Guardian has been shifting inexorably to the neoliberal position as it has started to rely more and more on US and Australian readership. Their rampant bias against the only viable socialist, anti-imperialist party (Labour under Corbyn) was notable and they've followed this up with a disgusting lack of activism around the torture by imprisonment of Julian Assange. In short: the Guardian is anything but left-w…

Yep. Their own columnists have said this, including Pilger:

https://www.pressgazette.co.uk/john-pilger-says-guardian-col...

Re: The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to mental health, healthier economy

#352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any direct source for that statistic? The article that you've linked to is the Babylon Bee -- a site best known for their satire and fake articles -- lifting some infographics from an (uncited) article in the Daily Mail. Neither of these sources inspires confidence.

What about this one? https://www.gov.uk/government/news/alcoholic-liver-deaths-in...

That actually says something subtly different than what the other article was claiming. Not only does it point to the pandemic as a whole as a cause rather than lockdowns in particular, as the Babylon Bee article did, but it suggests that the most problematic changes in behavior were increases in drinking among people who were already heavy drinkers, not people "becoming alcoholics" who didn't previously have a drinking problem.

Re: The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to mental health, healthier economy

#353
post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's strange. I'll see people compare U.S. numbers to the numbers from Germany, Vietnam, and New Zealand. Then when you Sweden is compared to other European countries, they'll suddenly say that you can't make such a comparison and Sweden should only be compared to other Nordic countries. That kind of makes sense though. Sweden, specifically, is held up by a certain political faction as a poster child to advocate fo…

> Sweden, specifically, is held up by a certain political faction as a poster child to advocate for certain set of policies Interestingly, from inside the country it seems to be held up by the right as the worst handling possible, and from outside the country it is held up by the right as the only reasonable handling. The truth, as always, is somewhere in between. I think it is important to look at the data without l…

That is interesting.

I would point out though that the truth does not always fit between the 'left' and 'right' views. The migration of the Overton window, capture of major media, and increased acceptance of social media censorship sailed away from truth some time ago.

Re: The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to mental health, healthier economy

#354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your argument is that we should ignore news media with an “anti lockdown” agenda? It may come as a surprise but not every smart, well meaning person supports the lockdowns. You can look at all the publicly available data and come to the conclusion that they were a colossal public health blunder. I would argue the pro lockdown crowd have a huge bias toward ignoring any bit of data that demonstrates lockdowns are a bad…

> Your argument is that we should ignore news media with an “anti lockdown” agenda? The argument may be more 'be aware of the biases of the news media you consume'. Contrast: > Sweden has recorded more COVID-19 cases per capita than most countries so far: Since the start of the pandemic, roughly 11 out of every 100 people in Sweden have been diagnosed with COVID-19, compared with 9.4 out of every 100 in the UK and 7.…

> The argument may be more 'be aware of the biases of the news media you consume'.

Exactly this. That's why I said "it is not an impartial source".

This might lead you to stop consuming certain very low quality sources, or in most cases, read them with awareness.

Re: The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to mental health, healthier economy

#355
post #152

It's so weird to see people still claiming this. Sweden has relatively few neighbors, but compare it with any of them, and it looks bad https://imgur.com/a/BlaU2SX Yes, Sweden did well compared to the EU average, but a country with very low population density, surrounded by very few neighbors that all got the virus under control very quickly has a lot of things going for it compared to the European average. The diffe…

Swede here: It's complex. I'm extremely unhappy with the way the Swedish gov handled this. I see two main failures: 1. Not reacting quickly enough. Denmark and Norway reacted quickly and strongly back in early March 2020. At this critical point, Sweden's "CDC" dropped the ball in a monumental manner, and the government didn't pick it up. 2. Not protecting municipal elderly homes in a competent way, early on. This is…

I think you are forgetting two important facts that counter your arguments:

1. A significant number of Swedes were in Lombardy (northern Italy) at the time the European outbreak started there. Furthermore Sweden has at least two major companies with presence around Wuhan. So by the time government noticed the issue it was too late.

2. Elderly care employees in Sweden are basically gig workers, resulting in a huge rotation in care givers and further spreading of the virus. The Social Democrats (and the Left party V) have often been opposed to this.

Two more things to consider:

1. This difference between Sweden and its neighbours is also clearly visible in the flu pattern over the year. It is simply due to different living and travelling conditions.

2. The municipalities are somewhat independent of the central government. Some with the highest death numbers among the elders where controlled by the opposition (e.g. Stockholm).

So while the government could have done a MUCH better job, your comment is already fairly partisan by cherry picking or ignoring facts.

Re: The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to mental health, healthier economy

#356
post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Weren't a lot of Sweden's deaths very early and from nursing homes ... If the data in the graph shared by kybernetikos is correct, the claim that 'it's all because of elder deaths in early 2020' seems to be misguided, given the 2021-01 peak, and the steady first-place position throughout the last ~18 months. https://imgur.com/a/BlaU2SX

Considering the vast majority of Sweden is basically uninhabited - I'm not sure why everyone is so dead set on comparing Sweden only with Norway and Finland (I get it that they are similar in this way and many others). Realistically, most of the people live in a few cities and the density is similar to Ireland, Croatia, Bulgaria, or even Greece. Sweden after its first wave doesn't look much different than any of thos…

> Considering the vast majority of Sweden is basically uninhabited ..

Okay then. Most of Australia is uninhabited, so let's compare those two (deaths per million).

> But it's not like you can A/B test this stuff.

You can try, and that's what this story (and similar) tries to do, factoring in variables as best they can.

FWIW the fixation on morbidity, at the exclusion of long term health effects, including the mental and physical health of a society's medical professionals by either being overwhelmed or burned out, is similarly bewildering to me as comparing two countries with similar geographies, climate, and effective population density is to you.

What really scares the willies out of me is that someone will eventually BigData this pandemic, and spit out a number that reflects how many people a nation state should sacrifice per month to maximise the wealth acquisition of the elites. This number will inform how governments will operate during the next pandemic.

This petrifies me because I'm living in Australia, where we've adopted an elimination strategy (well, up until a few weeks ago), and it's worked really well for me, given I have no wish to involuntarily sacrifice myself in the name of a poorly architected and grossly corrupted economic system.

[0] https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

Re: The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to mental health, healthier economy

#357
post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Which is why good analysis looks at excess deaths (ie, compared to the average over the last few years). The excess mortality graph you link to only goes back 19 months, not a few years. Here's an article which [0] references a paper which says that over the past 4 years there's no difference between all cause mortality in Sweden and Norway: > "Our study shows that all-cause mortality was largely unchanged during t…

> The excess mortality graph you link to only goes back 19 months, not a few years. The excess mortality graph only goes back 19 months, because that's when COVID start. It uses excess mortality, so those numbers are based on numbers in the previous years. It's like looking at a chart showing inflation over the past year and saying "this says nothing about the prices two years ago!" They're used to compute the number…

Exactly. I don't really understand what they are thinking there.

Re: The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to mental health, healthier economy

#358

It's so weird to see people still claiming this. Sweden has relatively few neighbors, but compare it with any of them, and it looks bad https://imgur.com/a/BlaU2SX Yes, Sweden did well compared to the EU average, but a country with very low population density, surrounded by very few neighbors that all got the virus under control very quickly has a lot of things going for it compared to the European average. The diffe…

Sweden's neighbours have far less international travel, immigration, and urban population.

Re: The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to mental health, healthier economy

#359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd happily trade a 10x higher death rate (to a high of 0.014%, mostly among people who weren't far off from dying anyways) in exchange for everyone having 2 years of having a non-miserable life. I know it's incredibly taboo to say something like this; but people are completely overvaluing the impact of the few absolute numbers of deaths, vs. the much harder to quantify widespread misery caused by these overreactions…

It’s incredibly easy to trade statistical deaths for statistical happiness. Ask yourself instead if you would be willing to kill yourself and your family if you knew it would make your neighbors happy. Sounds aggressive, I know. But it’s a solid way to illustrate that there are real people behind statistics. If 10x more people die, “everyone” is not going to have 2 years of a non-miserable life. The people who lose t…

Actually, I do trade the statistical risk of killing myself for some statistically greater benefit pretty much every single day and every action I take, from driving a car, to traveling for work, to any number of recreational activities like surfing or skiing.

Your argument is the precise fallacy I'm arguing against — risks and benefits should be quantified and weighed. The fact that it takes 50 man-months of quarantine to avoid a single one-month earlier than expected death, to me, is absolutely not worth it.

Perhaps you think locking up 50 innocent people to give someone an extra month is worth it. I don't. But I do understand that it's a subjective assessment.

Re: The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to mental health, healthier economy

#360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> quarter of the population lives in the Stockholm metro area You've never been to Stockholm metro area. It's very sparsely populated compared to many big metro areas. Stockholm is a small city (800k people or so) surrounded by villages (another 1.5 million people) spread over 6,519.3 km2. Density is 360/km2 And that's the biggest city in the country. In comparison, Paris (as we were talking about France): 13 mln peo…

But when you look at the average distance between two random people who live in the same town/city it would probably indicate that lack of contact doesn’t explain any success they’ve had with their numbers

Elsewhere people have already pointed this out: Swedes also have smaller families and a large proportion of people living alone, which (positively) contributed to numbers more than population density.

Which is why Tegnell had the gall to blame immigrants for the spread of Covid-19. Immigrants live in more densely populated areas.

And all this still doesn't explane a significantly larger mortality rate than immediate neighbors that have similar populations.

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