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Delta Variant

unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com

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Re: Delta Variant

#351

Post by gonzo »

zpeti wrote: post #328
franciscop wrote: post #72

The article purposefully conflates numbers to tell a narrative. I am talking only about EU, and at that southern EU which is where I've been following the numbers closely. Delta variant has been acting for up to 1 month in some regions, and as described in the article yes cases are up very quickly. However, the article says: > COVID deaths [...] And if you think Europe or the US will be spared This is not reflected a…

Another issue which this article ignores, and so does the fear mongering clickbait media, is how many asymptotic people we are testing now vs 6 months ago or a year ago. It’s way more. The UK especially is testing like crazy. But that means a lot more cases appear in the statistics than before, even if the R rate is only marginally higher. We simply don’t know what the actual r rate of all the different variants are…

> even if the R rate is only marginally higher.

R is an exponent. Small changes in an exponent lead to huge differences in the result.

Re: Delta Variant

#352

Post by bigcorp-slave »

bamboozled wrote: post #266
bigcorp-slave wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This guy is not the creator of mRNA vaccines, he’s just a guy who did something slightly related with mRNA forty years ago, and is now trying to ride the wave to money. I think it’s fair to say the vaccine was rushed, but that’s because we have been having the second largest pandemic of the century. More Americans are dead from this than died in WW2. I didn’t downvote you. I do wish we had a longer trial period, and…

Don’t attack people, it just weakens your comment. You’ve not really added anything useful to the discussion unfortunately. Saying someone speaks to right wing people means nothing to me.

There’s nothing in there that’s an attack, but wow, you are an asshole. There is a good faith engagement and persuasion in there, and you respond with this?

Fuck off, you’re what’s wrong with society.

Re: Delta Variant

#353

Post by vizzah »

35fbe7d3d5b9 wrote: post #94
pattrn wrote: post #78

The author links the following paper as a source for his comments: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3868853 . Unless I'm reading it incorrectly, the mortality rate of the infected, unvaccinated population is 0.5% (131 / 26,632), and the mortality rate in the infected, vaccinated population is 2.5% (33 / 1,410). Does this mean that the vaccine decreases your chance of contracting the virus, but incr…

> Does this mean that the vaccine decreases your chance of contracting the virus Yes. > but increases your chance of dying if you do contract it? No, I think not. Scroll down to table 3, page 14. No one under 60 who was vaccinated and fell ill died. No one under 60 who was vaccinated was even hospitalized . But even in the most at risk group, age 75+, vaccinations reduced mortality by a factor of 10. I think it's saf…

But recent UK data is telling us something different:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

Page 16-17

Delta infections:

Vaccinated with 2 doses - 10,834, died 118 (only 2 in below 50 age group). Unvaccinated - 71,932. I'll add half of those with "unknown" vaccination status, so the total is - 79,111, died 257 (26 in below 50 age group).

Mortality rate for vaccinated: 0.01089 Mortality rate for unvaccinated: 0.00324

So apparently vaccinated have a 3 times higher probability of a lethal outcome. Not exactly what you'd want to see.

Re: Delta Variant

#354

Post by ceejayoz »

petre wrote: post #297
bigcorp-slave wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This guy is not the creator of mRNA vaccines, he’s just a guy who did something slightly related with mRNA forty years ago, and is now trying to ride the wave to money. I think it’s fair to say the vaccine was rushed, but that’s because we have been having the second largest pandemic of the century. More Americans are dead from this than died in WW2. I didn’t downvote you. I do wish we had a longer trial period, and…

> the vaccine produces way fewer antibody targets than the actual virus This is not necessarily true. It depends. People in my family who took the vaccine and had visible side efects (headaches, fever) for a day or two have more antibodies than other acquaintances who got hospitalized with the disease.

Higher antibody levels and more antibody targets aren't the same thing.

The mRNA vaccines cause one protein from the virus to be present, so you get antibodies against that specific protein. More traditional vaccines use dead/weakened virus, which will trigger production of antibodies against multiple parts of the virus.

Re: Delta Variant

#355

Post by sgt101 »

pier25 wrote: post #330
sgt101 wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand VDBossche's assertions - he seems to say that there isn't a single case of population level benefit from vaccination campaigns. But we have seen massive benefit from mass vaccination against Polio, Smallpox, Measles, Mumps, Diptheria and many more. This is on a par with arguing that gravity doesn't make things fall down. It's worth noting that Delta appears to have emerged in India when and where t…

Honestly I have no idea, but a new variant called Lambda originated in Peru which is a relatively small country with only 32M.

Lambda was detected in August 2020, vaccination in Peru started in Feb 2021.

Re: Delta Variant

#356

Post by throwawayboise »

oezi wrote: post #263
blindmute wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am unvaccinated and probably will remain so for this particular vaccination. I don't truly believe that the risk of the vaccine outweighs the risk of the virus to me. It's more that I weigh the risk of covid at around zero, and the risk of vaccine at a question mark. I cannot trust the institutions pushing this vaccine at all. At worst, I trust the opposite of what they say about anything politicized. But let's jus…

This all makes sense if you are - less than 18 years old. For everyone older, all countries in the world have come to the conclusion that vaccination is safer than staying without vaccination. - only considering yourself and not the risk that you are part of the reason it spreads. What lies at the foundation of all this is your distrust and I would suggest you consider how to deal with that. If you can't trust the me…

> If you can't trust the media and governments

Up until December we had the Pres/VP candidates saying they would not take any vaccine that Trump endorsed. Then they won, and were faced with convincing everyone to take those very vaccines. Do you believe them now, or then?

Re: Delta Variant

#357

Post by cloverich »

shireboy wrote: post #287
cloverich wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are ever present dangers that we just live with like the chances of getting in a car accident and dying, but we decide that these risks are low enough that we carry on normal life. Because there are no other (tenable) options for car accidents. If there was a vaccine you could take that would prevent you from being harmed in a car accident, and it was cheap (free even) and available, the expectations around c…

I've actually wrestled with this exact analogy as a way to measure the risks myself. There are options for car accidents - a "vaccine" you can take as it were. Wear a seatbelt. I think it's a good analogy. Some people don't like to wear them, but in general those that do are at lower risk and accept the remaining risk that they hurt or maim themselves or others - even children and elderly. Those that don't are at hig…

I think masks are the better analogy to seatbelts. It reduces your risk of injury and death, protects the other occupants in the vehicle (from your flying body), but only to a certain extent and offer no protection in various scenarios. In general its difficult to find a good analogy for vaccine's anywhere because they are a nearly miraculous tool. I think you are right about the unknown risk, but a subset of the drama is certainly a rejection of things like masks and vaccines given they are low effort / low risk / high reward vs an unknown level of risk (mutating virus).

Re: Delta Variant

#358

Post by simonh »

ElectronCharge wrote: post #307
OzyM wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You cited the CDC, but now that the figure you used has been cleared up, you no longer like the CDC as a source? > Reports of adverse events to VAERS following vaccination, including deaths, do not necessarily mean that a vaccine caused a health problem. A review of available clinical information, including death certificates, autopsy, and medical records, has not established a causal link to COVID-19 vaccines . Howe…

[flagged]

Come on. You must see that believing and quoting the VAERS numbers, but choosing not to believe the review of clinical information, even though both come from the same source is clearly picking and choosing to fit a pre-conceived narative. I mean we all know people do this, in fact we all do, and here’s one if the clearest examples I’ve ever seen.

Either the US health care system is a reliable source or it’s not. Unless you have an actual informed reason that isn’t post-hoc construction, based on reliable information about both processes, for believing the VAERS reports but not the clinical review process?

Yes of course I’m choosing to trust both. I believe in the checks and balances in the system, that these organisations contain people with a variety of political beliefs, that freedom of speech and the press is an effective counter to deception. But at least I’m applying that trust consistently. If you distrust them then fine, I’m sure you have your reasons, but please at least be consistent about it.

Re: Delta Variant

#359

Post by motohagiography »

blindmute wrote: post #215
motohagiography wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate having to be skeptical of this stuff, because the consequences of skeptics being accurate are even more horrifying than the pandemic. This is so challenging because when you look at each number he uses, and then compare it to its base rate, you can see why hesitancy levels are 30-50% in regions of developed countries. If you are among that cohort of people in your region who are not vaccinated, should you get…

Great idea, just comply with evil so you can maybe fight it later. But right now, be sure to comply.

I'm glad you mentioned evil, because that's the conversation that isn't being had, and it's the personal belief factor that is driving a lot of private decisions. For us to spout talking points about noisy data just talks around these deeply held beliefs, and I think the only hope is from addressing those directly.

I happen to have some rare professional insight into how evil this all may get, but if it's as bad as I suspect, a small risk of rare side effects is really the least of your worries on that time horizon, and you can't do anything about it if you are on the target list.

If that's on your radar you need to know that doing nothing is not fighting evil. If you are going to fight, get out there and do it, but if you aren't going to do that now, then I'm recommending you take the benefits of a vaccine with some known risks and some unknown ones, keep your family and social connections who will otherwise write you off and isolate you when it counts, and then fight or continue to do nothing when you are ready.

Dismissing someones beliefs as conspiracy theories has never once convinced anyone of anything, so addressing how to effectively navigate a world with a belief is much more logical.

I don't think the reason to take it is scientific. Literally nobody who didn't invent it has taken it as the result of their own emperical research and discovery. I'm saying this vaccine is not the hill to die on. There will be plenty of other opportunity for that.

Re: Delta Variant

#360

Post by pier25 »

sgt101 wrote: post #355
pier25 wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly I have no idea, but a new variant called Lambda originated in Peru which is a relatively small country with only 32M.

Lambda was detected in August 2020, vaccination in Peru started in Feb 2021.

Yes, but I was commenting on your point about "many cases" not so much about the vaccination.
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