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Crazy New Ideas

paulgraham.com

351–360 of 808 posts

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> “ People are not claiming that it is a bad idea because it is infeasible or not valuable, but because it is dangerous and also because it sounds technically ridiculous. (thin client inside thin client)” This is the kind of asymmetric dismissal he’s talking about, and it’s not very good. Dangerous? We run everything via cloud services and encrypted communication. “Sounds technically ridiculous” - so did probably eve…

We can still create and run programs on our computers. This is more important than you think. Delegating power/freedom is dangerous, we're already delegating too much.

Yeah I mean I’m with you - I like local control and I think Urbit is cool because of this.

That said, the potential for mighty is real and dismissing it for these reasons is dumb. The same logic would have also dismissed nearly all modern wildly successful tech companies.

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#352
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I understand of both the recent tweets and both of their fairly radical/extreme (and mostly correct) views about abstraction being a net negative, the criticism is less "Mighty doesn't work" and more "We shouldn't need to use an app like Mighty to get good performance on a basic website".

Sure, but the disconnect seems to be that Mighty is advertised for people who essentially use their browser as an OS (I see Figma mentioned a lot), rather than people who just want to do basic browsing. I think Mighty has unfairly taken the brunt of a lot of growing discontent with bloat on the web. I'm not ready to fork over $30+ for faster browsing, but I'm glad someone is working in this space, because I genuinely…

> I genuinely would like to rent a fast virtual computer for the occasional video editing task and think Mighty is a step in that direction.

Can't you already do that pretty easily on AWS or Azure?

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#354

I don't like how Paul's writing always gets hundreds of likes just because it's by him. Not everything he writes is amazing. I wish there wasn't such a cult around him.

You are aware this is his website, right?

A large proportion of people are here specifically because of PG and his endeavours, of course he's going to get lots of upvotes. Even if you don't agree with him, he's worth listening to, particularly if you have any aspirations to join YC.

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#355
post #43

The reference to the Copernican Model of the solar system is an interesting one since it produced less accurate predictions than the Ptolemaic Model. Improving the predictions of the Copernican model initially involved the introduction of epicycles, diminishing the value of the crazy new idea. It took the work of Kepler (elliptical orbits) and Newton (a physical basis for elliptical orbits) to elevate the heliocentri…

To add to this:

He lists two reasons why people want to dismiss "crazy new ideas": envy, and the desire to seem sophisticated. Using Copernicus as an example simply does not fit these claims.

Reasons to dismiss Copernicus's ideas:

1. They were worse predictions, so for all 'practical' purposes of the day (essentially, only knowing where the wandering stars would be), adopting his ideas would be poor.

2. Most crazy new ideas like this proposed by people on the fringe of a field are flat out wrong. The Copernican Model is a good example of a common mistake, really: Someone saw a complex but accurate system and tried replacing it with a simple system that is easier to understand but rejects the actual data. Turns out the world is complex and doesn't care about being intuitive. See all of quantum mechanics for an example.

3. Classical relativity was only established later by Newton. The moon, sun, and other planets were poorly understood at the time. It wasn't until Galileo's observations that evidence was gained for a rocky moon. The idea that the whole Earth could be moving and spinning without violating everyday observation, and therefor the other bodies in the sky follow the same rules as those on Earth, is simply a large and unnecessary leap in intuition. Sure, it's a correct leap, but the path of reasoning there is backwards. It is only with Newton's laws of motion that heliocentrism begins to make any sense.

4. Further, much better evidence (as discussed above) came to light far before Copernicus's ideas had any effect on non-academic matters. Other than finding things interesting, and generally liking to know how the universe works, heliocentrism has no practical affect on life even today. Sure if you work at NASA it's super important, but most people don't. Trying to force an idea before it's time, when it won't effect things anyways has little practical value.

The crux of this is that this article is not a response to people dismissing a new idea. It's people dismissing a new business. He seems to be arguing that new ideas by domain experts shouldn't be criticized because they might be right, while ignoring that people can have strong financial motivation to promote incorrect ideas. Fighting such ideas is good because:

- If the ideas prove correct, internet criticism of it really won't matter. Only a few key investors need to be convinced, and yeah they'll make a lot of money.

- If the ideas are wrong, healthy skepticism is the strongest force against snake oil salesmen.

90% of starts fail, so the criticism will usually be on the correct side, even if the exact criticisms don't point to the true cause of failure.

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#356
post #222

This post seems to be in response to the recent Mighty app. To me, the main problem lies in what VCs think pass as 'tech'. The mighty app website made it sound it like it was some novel revolutionary app. I was hoping it was really something clever like what the Cloudflare people or even game streaming companies do. But nope. It's significantly worse: it's literally slapping together existing tech and calling it nove…

Unpopular opinion: the use of "tech" or "high tech" to describe many of today's tech companies is a misnomer.

For me, a tech company is a company that leverages advances in applied sciences and mathematics (computer science included) to create new, innovative solutions.

While there are certainly companies that are innovating in fundamental technologies and making that a cornerstone of their businesses, the vast majority of tech companies are little more than conventional businesses with some digital business automation plumbing. Innovative business models are still innovation - don't get me wrong - but they're not technology innovation.

It made sense to call e-business "tech" companies when the web was fresh and new and everyone was innovating, but these days, very few are pushing the envelope on the technology side. It's pretty well accepted that any business needs electronic technologies to work now: at what point do we stop calling every company that builds an app tied to a database a "tech" company and just call them an "[insert vertical here] business"?

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#357
There is no question that many important ideas sounded crazy at first.

The problem is that these ideas are a tiny minority of all new ideas.

The vast majority of new ideas are eventually proven invalid.

So just because an idea is rejected, does not mean that it is guaranteed to triumph.

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> First, he clearly has too much skin in the game to be credibly neutral about it. I think this is a general and important point (and sadly not at all discussed in his post). When an expert publicly says something that seems wrong, my default explanation is that they have a vested interest that consciously or unconsciously forces them to consider the implications of what they say and alter the message accordingly. Re…

>>"Recent case in point: public health authorities telling the public that masks are useless and even harmful during the pandemic (presumably to avoid shortages) and then reversing their stance when masks became abundant." I agree with your general point, but my interpretation of those events has additional axis: 1. Masks are in shortage, and may not protect you, and public doesn't know how to use them and will proba…

The problem is they lost all credibility with the public for that very obvious deception.

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#359
post #177

>The reason is that everyone is too conservative. Everyone isn't too conservative: veterans in a field are conservative because they have earned the war wounds they carry. Which is why you tend to see "disruptive apps" targeting younger people. They don't have the life experience to understand, at first glance, why an idea may be extremely dangerous. I'm young enough to remember being that way myself: Who cares if so…

From the article, PG argues that the crazy idea should be taken seriously predicated on the person having deep domain expertise.

I don't think anyone with deep domain experience in banking would say "Who cares if someone gets my bank account info"

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#360
post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The median implausible-sounding idea is bad, for sure. But if you never bet on any implausible-sounding ideas, you exclude the chance of being an early participant in any big paradigm shift. A good exercise is to back-test your rule against big ideas through their history. Would you have invested time in solving Schrodinger’s weird equation in 1925? 1927? 1940? Would you have invested time in public key cryptography…

> A good exercise is to back-test your rule against big ideas through their history. Everyone assumes they would always have been on the right side of history. It's basically impossible to know what you would have been like had you been born in those times. Better is to back-test your rule against paradigm shifts that have occurred in your own lifetime. What are some ideas you dismissed that turned out to work? What…

A very smart professor of mine once thought "They added pictures to hypertext, that's sort of cool I guess."

Looking backwards definitely biases you to seeing things you didn't see at the time. Even memories get tinged. But memories are probably the most accurate you can do.

I missed bitcoin entirely despite knowing many people who bought as I still don't understand what the appeal is. It doesn't seem efficient to me as a payments technology or from a privacy perspective. I kind of wish I bought early even though I probably would have cashed out way too soon, as the money would have been nice.

I liked Stripe due to my revulsion to PayPal but wasn't exactly going to be on them winning. I was pleasantly surprised. Ditto Shopify because of my dislike of Amazon stores. I think I underestimate the chances of good ideas and good products winning because I know it's very hard.

I took a few bets early in my career on start-ups. I think I underestimated the difficulty of selling into retail on one company that I still think had a good idea. The others ended up being acquisitions, although the products weren't continued. I still believe social notetaking is an interesting hard problem in need of a good solution but I don't think we had found it.

I think the big lesson for me is to not get taken in by the cult of personality around strong founders and focus more on the merits of the ideas. That can be tricky as you're not getting the full picture when you interview making it even harder to see a crazy idea as good for the right reasons but it's the right approach.

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