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Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

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Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#351

Post by macinjosh »

I am shocked, shocked to find there is gambling going on in here! /s

In all seriousness, if we are talking about privilege this privilege the ruling elite has to participate freely in insider trading behavior is bonkers. It likely just isn't the politicians themselves. Their staffers, confidants, and so on could all be benefiting.

If Presidents are goaded to put their assets in blind trusts when taking office why shouldn't principal members of the other two branches of governments be obliged to do the same?

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#352

Post by partiallypro »

michaelmrose wrote: post #163
partiallypro wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comparatively speaking, most Western countries.

Start with the 3 best examples you can name and we can go over how regulated various industries are, what percentage of income is paid in taxes, and what percentage of their GPD is non military government spending.

There is a lot more to governance than expenditures and safety nets. I'm starting to think we've been in a free society in the west so long that people have simply overlooked the history of large governments stifling industry and life. Limited government is a very big thing in the West, even in countries with very generous social programs.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#353

Post by macinjosh »

cwkoss wrote: post #119
hackeraccount wrote: post #92

why doesn't someone create an index fund that just track congressional trades?

there is reporting lag, so by the time you know about an opportunity it is usually gone

Only government bureaucracy could convert what is essentially class based market information access into something benign sounding as "reporting lag". Maybe "scraps" is a more apt term?

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#354

Post by ABeeSea »

SilasX wrote: post #329
ABeeSea wrote: post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the bet is wrong, OTM options expire worthless. ITM options give you less risk, but for a premium (you buy fewer contracts with the same amount of money). But still with more leverage than outright buying the stock. This is captured in the concept of Delta one of the “greeks” which is a parameter in the black scholes equation and solution that tries to measure the pricing movement of the option relative to the pri…

Fair enough, but then if you’re having to hedge that much against downside risk, it doesn’t feel like insider trading. The whole problem with insider trading is that have special knowledge of which way it’s going to go. At the point where you’re having to protect against the possibility of being so wrong, that doesn’t feel like acting on insider knowledge, and it’s more like “interested outsider” trading.

I personally don’t think it was insider trading so in that sense I completely agree with youx

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#355

Post by socialist_coder »

michaelmrose wrote: post #145
wpietri wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd be happy with that, but perhaps an easier solution is to make them moderately wealthy. Pay them a top 5% salary with a guaranteed pension for life, plus mandatory open finances for life. Then there's much less incentive to resort to graft.

The income for a US senator or congressman is already literally exactly at the 95th percentile at 174,000. Making someone wealthy doesn't remove their incentive to gather more wealth it gives them a stake and incentive to be more effectively corrupt.

175k is not enough... it needs to be 300k at least. maybe 500k. Something high enough that the risk-reward for corruption is less attractive. 175k is a nice life but not even remotely enough to have the lifestyle you'd expect for someone running our country.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#356

Post by nuisance-bear »

formercoder wrote: post #97
api wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that high-ranking politicians and bureaucrats can trade stocks at all is criminal. The moral hazard is unbelievable.

When in the private sector those of us that even get a whiff of MNPI are told we can’t trade individual names at all.

If you work in private equity, it's the worst. Your company isn't actively trading stock, but you still get banned from options, shorts, and need pre-clearance for every single trade. So you end up long SPY... even if you derive independent utility from actively managing your portfolio.

The law doesn't require this of course, but basically all money managers get their insider trading compliance program from the same 3 outside law firms.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#357

Post by ABeeSea »

jwilber wrote: post #336
sakopov wrote: post #15

> For example, Pelosi in Dec 22 was against more stimulus. Her husband buys deep ITM TSLA and AAPL calls that day. December 23rd, she is suddenly for stimulus again, with those same companies ralling 5%, giving her an instant +30 return. > Congressman Gottheimer is absolutely an incredible options trader. He’s been selling calls at peaks on $MSFT all 2021, & seemingly buying back the contracts on dips. This in blocks…

Casually making millions, almost certainly illegally, while her district suffers as one of the nation’s most severe when it comes to income inequality. [0] Every day I become more and more convinced that all politicians are basically the same - chasing self-interests, power, and prestige. [0] https://www.ppic.org/publication/income-inequality-in-califo...

California has high inequality compared to other states because the rich people don’t want to live in those other states. It’s not like people are rushing to move to Mississippi or West Virginia.

It’s easy to have low inequality when everyone is very poor like West Virginia.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#358

Post by insert_coin »

munk-a wrote: post #77
mabbo wrote: post #9

The very people whose job it should be to stop this sort of thing are the ones who are profiting from it. How do you change this? No really, how can we force congress to change the rules so that elected officials can't profit from inside information? Why would they ever vote for such a bill?

We elect people who actually believe in governance instead of people out to make a buck. I know that everyone's going to act in their own interest (that's sorta how interests are defined) but some people feel a legitimate duty and loyalty to country and welfare above their own personal comfort - these people tend to be torpedoed very early on in US politics because they refuse to cozy up to special interests to play…

We elect people who seek power for the sake of power, and sometimes pretending to care about others help them acquire it, and sometimes when the stars align, having to actually help others helps them keep it.

> It's easy to be a thorough cynic in the modern world...

Thanks to politicians it's never been easier!

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#359

Post by onemiketwelve »

SilasX wrote: post #201
sakopov wrote: post #15

> For example, Pelosi in Dec 22 was against more stimulus. Her husband buys deep ITM TSLA and AAPL calls that day. December 23rd, she is suddenly for stimulus again, with those same companies ralling 5%, giving her an instant +30 return. > Congressman Gottheimer is absolutely an incredible options trader. He’s been selling calls at peaks on $MSFT all 2021, & seemingly buying back the contracts on dips. This in blocks…

>Her husband buys deep ITM TSLA and AAPL calls that day. Stupid question: if you were expecting an upswing in a stock, wouldn't you get the most returns from an out of the money option? For a deep ITM you're paying the same as the underlying stock plus a tiny premium -- you might as well just buy the stock.

It's not stupid. I'm questioning whether the original person understands what a deep itm call means. If you knew a stocks gonna move, you buy at the money or out of the money. Never would you buy _deep_ in the money. Makes no sense.
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