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Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

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Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#351

Post by orblivion »

woodruffw wrote: post #158

My understanding of the author's central thesis is this: the US, despite its world-class virology and disease study labs, regularly has lapses in procedure that regularly lead to situations in which the public might be exposed. Given that this is happening in our own backyard, we might reasonably expect countries of similar status (like China) to experience similar lapses. That reads as reasonable to me, but raises a…

The hypothesis is (or maybe this part is established fact?) that this lab was conducting Gain of Function research: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gain_of_function_research

It's purposely evolving diseases to spread faster or be more dangerous, for the sake of research. As I understand, it's at least a bit controversial. So maybe there's not as much of it going on as other research? If so, there probably wouldn't be as much opportunity for it to escape. But now that it has (per the hypothesis), it's ready to be very contagious right out of the gate. Thus, pandemic.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#352

Post by mrob »

dvt wrote: post #278
echelon wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China has absolutely no chance to meet head-to-head against a US Carrier Strike Group on neutral territory. Absolutely none, and the US has TEN Carrier Strike Groups. Right now. But take a look at the shipbuilding output they've achieved. In ten to twenty years, China could easily rival the US Navy.

> In ten to twenty years, China could easily rival the US Navy. People said this 20 years ago. We've already started to see the CCP losing ground (see HK), and I'm quite bearish on the Party going forward. Jinping is 67, and I expect to see a major power struggle which will leave the Chinese Communist Party crippled when he dies.

>We've already started to see the CCP losing ground (see HK)

How is violating the Sino-British Joint Declaration and getting away with it "losing ground"? The Hong Kong protests failed and Hongkongers now have less freedom than before.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#354

Post by esja »

r00fus wrote: post #331
hospadar wrote: post #260

Like, so what? Should we care a lot about the safety and security of places where dangerous infectious diseases are studied? sure! I think we should care A LOT MORE about our [apparent total lack of] ability to quickly deploy effective public health responses to new infectious diseases (regardless of their source). Maybe it was an accident at a sloppy lab, ok, so labs on the other side of the planet in sovereign coun…

This ^^^ so very much. Think of it like infosec angle: Yes, it's interesting to identify and neutralize hostile actors, but the 100% more effective solution is to have defense-in-depth and system resilience in place - because you control that, but you can't control the external actors unless you have a god-complex.

What sort of defence in depth can work against a virus that's been engineered to infect humans very easily, and which can only be stopped by shutting down the world economy and waiting months or years for vaccination? I think the last year has proven comprehensively that we simply cannot implement any sort of defence in depth and need to try very hard to eliminate these problems at source. Just like we do with chemical and nuclear weapons. We don't wait to clean up the damage afterward, because the damage is so horrendous.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#355

Post by [deleted] »

koheripbal wrote: post #326
gregwebs wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is a big country. Wuhan is 900km away from the bat caves that are believed to be the breeding ground for these viruses.

...but Wuhan is also 0km away from the wet markets that sell meat sourced x00km away near and around the bat caves.

[deleted]

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#356

Post by tehjoker »

varjag wrote: post #267
tehjoker wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's evidence that many things are possible. Conspiracies are possible, but they are primarily a diagnosis of exclusion OR if there is specific evidence pointing in that direction. The US media has made an art out of turning speculation into exciting narratives that large fractions of the population believe that turned out to be completely fabricated but retain adherents for years or generations after.

It's not a conspiracy, but a not improbable covered up accident. I.e. something pretty normal in any authoritarian state. I don't think anyone suggests the CCP unleashed the virus onto its own city on purpose.

You're alleging the CCP is covering up their role a global pandemic. That's a conspiracy as there is a group of powerful people hiding something from the public.

I believe in many conspiracy theories that have substantive evidence for them (e.g. the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution was faked), so I don't dismiss the idea of a conspiracy as impossible, they happen every day. However, there is no substantive evidence presented here other than the mere possibility that someone might have done something bad.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#357

Post by enchiridion »

ryandrake wrote: post #303
hospadar wrote: post #260

Like, so what? Should we care a lot about the safety and security of places where dangerous infectious diseases are studied? sure! I think we should care A LOT MORE about our [apparent total lack of] ability to quickly deploy effective public health responses to new infectious diseases (regardless of their source). Maybe it was an accident at a sloppy lab, ok, so labs on the other side of the planet in sovereign coun…

Worrying about where it came from is misdirection to distract us from the real issue that you pointed out: That nearly all countries totally failed to effectively deal with it and contain the spread, resulting in a body count that should be totally unacceptable. We got extraordinarily lucky that it wasn't super deadly. Imagine if the next COVID is 20X deadlier and hits uniformly across age ranges. We're doomed if we…

Yes and no. The response would have been far greater if the virus was more deadly. This virus was not that deadly (relatively), so ended up getting half measures.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#358

Post by 8note »

bumbada wrote: post #237
tehjoker wrote: post #161

Pretty incredible how far the US media will go to deflect attention from how bad the US response to the pandemic was to China. "Let me be clear: Labs in Wuhan might not have played any role in the origin of the pandemic. But a year later, no source has been found, and the world deserves a thorough, unbiased investigation of all plausible theories that is conducted without fear or favor." Okay. So basically this autho…

People are too naive when they talk about China. For one people actually believe Chinese's numbers, something no Chinese national will ever do. China is a totalitarian country, they have the monopoly of the press. That means official numbers are not real numbers because if you go against the official numbers you just dissapear. You can not compare numbers given in a free press country against numbers being given by a…

As a result, I have no reason to believe that Wuhan is actually the first outbreak, making the existence of that lab irrelevant

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#359

Post by tryonenow »

ryandrake wrote: post #303
hospadar wrote: post #260

Like, so what? Should we care a lot about the safety and security of places where dangerous infectious diseases are studied? sure! I think we should care A LOT MORE about our [apparent total lack of] ability to quickly deploy effective public health responses to new infectious diseases (regardless of their source). Maybe it was an accident at a sloppy lab, ok, so labs on the other side of the planet in sovereign coun…

Worrying about where it came from is misdirection to distract us from the real issue that you pointed out: That nearly all countries totally failed to effectively deal with it and contain the spread, resulting in a body count that should be totally unacceptable. We got extraordinarily lucky that it wasn't super deadly. Imagine if the next COVID is 20X deadlier and hits uniformly across age ranges. We're doomed if we…

I imagine if it were deadlier, people would have been more incentivised to deal with it. Bodies piling up on the streets is a much better motivator for staying inside and socially distancing than news reports of regional hospitals being gradually overwhelmed by a predominantly mild or asymptomatic virus.

The fact is that even ignoring government response, all of our medical institutions seemed to presume that this was yet another [avian, swine, bird, ...] flu outbreak and it would be about as minimally impactful for the west as the rest have been. Which indicates that doctors and hospital administration were either not reading the literature coming out of China as early as last january 2020, or they simply disregarded it as sensationalist and/or sloppy. And, to be fair, given the state of crisis that our research institutions are in globally, I can't entirely blame them, though I still think it was irresponsible that no one seemed to make any preparations for months after the outbreak was apparent. It's as if everyone sat on their hands waiting for the government to tell them it was serious.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#360

Post by throwawaysea »

hospadar wrote: post #260

Like, so what? Should we care a lot about the safety and security of places where dangerous infectious diseases are studied? sure! I think we should care A LOT MORE about our [apparent total lack of] ability to quickly deploy effective public health responses to new infectious diseases (regardless of their source). Maybe it was an accident at a sloppy lab, ok, so labs on the other side of the planet in sovereign coun…

We should care about it because it will help prevent the next outbreak. Not only that, we should hold the CCP accountable on suppressing reports of COVID-19 early on, which delayed the world's understanding/preparation/response. Furthermore, China should have shut down all their ports much earlier. Take a look at https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/Whathappensif/how..., an article titled "How China locked down internally for COVID-19, but pushed foreign travel"
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