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Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

reuters.com

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Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#351

Post by hntrader »

amelius wrote: post #203
drcode wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A problem with bureaucracies is that they often care deeply if people die from an action they are responsible for, but are fine if there are massive deaths due to inaction.

The solution is simple though: politicians simply ask experts how many people die if they do X versus Y, and make sure it is recorded (e.g. by journalists) so they can refer to it later.

Why would any politician/regulator/expert willingly opt-in to accountability?

The best strategy (however cynical) is to not be quantitatively explicit about expectations so that you can frame it as though you succeeded no matter what happens.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#352

Post by _ph_ »

andrewon wrote: post #280
sradman wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The EMA has said that as of March 10, a total of 30 cases of blood clotting had been reported among close to 5 million people vaccinated with the AstraZeneca shot in the European Economic Area, which links 30 European countries. "The decision today is purely precautionary..." given this level of signal. We don't have details on the age groups involved and the normal rates expected but I can hazard a Fermi Estimate…

Several considerations here: 1. If holding off AstraZeneca vaccine does not affect vaccination rate during the investigation period, it is a prudent thing to do. 2. If vaccine rate is expected to drop, number of expected increase in death per day due to covid vs blood clog should be compared, if we were to minimize short term death. 3. More concerning is unknown effect that could take a long time to materialize. This…

Vaccination rate in Germany will drop considerably while the hold is in place, at least 20%, if not more. I don't know the exact numbers, but vaccination is quite blocked on vaccine supply at the moment.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#353

Post by JacobSuperslav »

ktybdr wrote: post #184
lxgr wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Thats why everyone should be free to chose to get vaccinated. Isn't that the case? At least in my country, there is no obligation to take the vaccine, and even incentives (e.g. being able to attend public events sooner) are seen very critically.

There are definitely people with the view that they should be mandatory and I've personally started to encounter social pressure to get vaccinated, which I don't want to do, because I lead a low-contact hermit's life and the odds of dying from COVID which I probably won't catch if I maintain my lifestyle a few more months appears to be lower than the chance I'll die from a vaccine that I definitely get For my age coh…

vaccines aren't only about your safety

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#354

Post by [deleted] »

h3cate wrote: post #328
fasteddie31003 wrote: post #9

The pandemic has made me believe we need to be greater consiquentalists in our polices. It's pretty obvious that on the whole the AstraZeneca vax will save more people than are killed from the side effects. We don't not live in a 0 risk existence.

Why put people that are at low risk from covid at risk by giving them a vaccine?

[deleted]

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#355

Post by _ph_ »

raducu wrote: post #190
fab1an wrote: post #133

Looks like this may be a bit more relevant than many of the snarky comments would suggest - the relevant German authority on this said that they have seen a unexpected increase in a specific type of blood clotting issue that usually is very rare: https://www.pei.de/DE/newsroom/hp-meldungen/2021/210315-voru...

I'm set to take the oxford d vaccine, but I could also take the pfizer vaccine. I've had elevated blood markers for clotting during covid-19, and now I hear of this. I'm thinking of taking 75 mg aspirin, before and after the vaccine. On the other hand, the issue is the patients have low platelet count and I understand that this is the way aspirin reduces blod clotting. So, do these patients have low platelet count be…

According to a high-ranking doctor on the German TV today, the observed effect isn't normal thrombosis but a brain related thromboses, where prophylactic treatment is not possible.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#356

Post by 5cents »

isolli wrote: post #139
esperent wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a big difference here though - when it comes to a vaccine, we have hard stats to define the risk/reward ratio. I believe it's likely that lockdowns may cause some deaths, or possibly even lots of deaths. However, they certainly help prevent the spread of deadly disease too and hence prevent many deaths. We can probably get fairly definite numbers on how many deaths lockdown prevents in a large population. I d…

Fair question. In a sense, the evidence for vaccines is upfront, while the evidence for lockdowns required the careful accumulation of data. I would cite for instance the paper by Ioannidis and co-authors [0]. "In summary, we fail to find strong evidence supporting a role for more restrictive NPIs in the control of COVID in early 2020. We do not question the role of all public health interventions, or of coordinated…

It may not affect your main point, but a caution: The paper has received critique [1], including a letter to the editor

[1] https://pubpeer.com/publications/3D81CAC483C2021C00E27C8826D...

[2] https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13518

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#357

Post by ArkanExplorer »

Broken_Hippo wrote: post #284
totalZero wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can also just expose yourself to the virus and build immunity that way. Up to you.

THat works great if you don't die. That doesn't work so great if you don't die and have lifelong complications, though. It doesn't work so great if you get it and kill your child/grandmother either. It doesn't work so well if you have to catch the virus multiple times to have immunity either (folks aren't always immune after catching it). Not to mention the unknowns with mutations of the virus. It is seriously much b…

You can calculate the risk for yourself, based on data from the UK:

https://qcovid.org/Calculation

eg. 30 year old healthy white male: 1 in 7,092 risk of hospitalisation, 1 in 250,000 risk of death.

By contrast the risk of death from anything for a 30 year old male in the UK is 1 in 1,215:

http://www.bandolier.org.uk/booth/Risk/dyingage.html

Even taking a healthy 80 year old male, the risk of death from COVID is 1 in 275, whereas the annual risk of death from anything is 1 in 15.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#358

Post by string »

Kaido wrote: post #268
jonplackett wrote: post #5

Maybe AZ should have charged €3 per shot instead of €2 and spent the extra € on a PR agency. They just seem to be constantly taking a hammering in the press, unfairly I’d say.

It was totally deserved, the EU helped fund the vaccine with a €336 million grant and what they did was stopping the exports from the UK plants to the EU while still exporting from the EU to the UK.No wonder that they didn't delivered the promised doses since their best efforts were being allocated to the UK.

This is false. The €336m was a down payment to AZ for 400m doses, not funding for development. It was agreed in August after protracted negotiations as the EU demanded a lower price.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#360

Post by mytailorisrich »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #311

Most interesting would be data from the UK. My understanding is they've had by far the biggest AZ rollout, so any anomalies should be more obvious - assuming it's a design problem, and not caused by a manufacturing defect from one specific supply.

Today in the news (in UK) the figures mentioned are that out of 17 million doses given in EU and UK they have recorded about 40 cases of blood clots. So far there is no indication of any link with the vaccine and the 'anomaly' is that these numbers represent less blood clots than they were expecting as, according to a Prof interviewed on BBC, blood clots occur at a rate of 1-2 per thousand people per year.

The summary of the experts' opinion in the UK is that those countries' decision to suspend the vaccine is "baffling".

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