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Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

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Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#351

Post by aww_dang »

cgriswald wrote: post #349
aww_dang wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you told me I had low tire pressure I wouldn't ask if you're a mechanic. I would look at the tire myself. If I was unable to use a pressure gauge due to a lack of my own expertise, I still wouldn't be in a position to question your observation about the tire based upon your credentials alone. The best counter argument I could mount would be, "It looks full to me" or "I checked the pressure this morning". Dismissin…

He’s either correct about your tire pressure or he’s not. You’re right about that part. That’s as far as the purely logical bit can go—then you get to economics: Should you spend the time and energy to give his claim credence? Your example is poor because tire pressure is an expertise the average person you’re likely to come into contact with likely possesses. This is not so of, say, the epidemiological issue in ques…

Yes, I attempted to cover that eventuality in my example. Let's say I am not qualified to examine the tire myself and someone who's ability I also doubted made an observation.

Here's what I wouldn't do: prejudicially dismiss the tribesman's opinion, citing his lack of authority on the topic.

Even if we accept the premises of an appeal to authority, it would follow that one would have to also be an authority on the topic before he could determine the authoritativeness of another speaker. How can you evaluate the authority of a speaker, if you yourself are not an 'authority' on the topic?

Even if you are an authority, does this status render you infallible?

No, I'm afraid the entire premise is ridiculous.

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#352

Post by tjs8rj »

simonh wrote: post #277
jdminhbg wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So in that case, you're willing to say that under current conditions in the US, mask wearing and restrictions on things like dining are pointless, right? If "lockdown" can only be expected to produce results in its strongest form and we can't do that, that seems like the logical conclusion.

Any improvement over nothing is worth having. Just because the large number of lockdown deniers make the kinds of lockdowns seen elsewhere in the developed world impossible, doesn’t mean the level of compliance that is possible isn’t worthwhile. The experience from the Spanish Flu, which seems to have similar overall lethality, is instructive. Many developed countries managed to lock down to some extent and keep the…

I’d be hesitant to call the issue preventing simply closing up for a few weeks (which I agree should have happened) “lockdown deniers”. We’re had mass protests and riots by the same people apparently for the lockdowns and the more recent scandals with politicians of all stripes caught breaking their own restrictions on indoor dining, not wearing masks, or breaking travel recommendations to fly to vacation homes. The problem there’s a myriad of problems, the most original likely being that covid got politicized in the first place.

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#353

Post by bspammer »

spookthesunset wrote: post #315
Urgo wrote: post #21

While I'd love to believe that herd immunity is almost here or the vaccine is effectively stopping the spread already, I think the biggest reason for the drop in new cases as well as the drop in active cases can be summed up in a single word. Christmas. Or more broadly the holiday season. It's absolutely true that new cases are dropping and active cases are dropping as well but if you look at active cases everything…

Attributing the rise and fall of it to "christmas", "super bowl", "sturgous rally" or "beachgoers" is a fools errand. It's a monument to the arrogance of humankind. I think future civilizations are going to study this period and laugh at how foolish and naive we are thinking we have any kind of real control over this virus. The idea that outside pharmaceutical interventions mankind can somehow control a respiratory v…

New Zealand has had the virus under control without pharmaceutical help for 9 months now. Many East Asian countries are doing totally fine, with extremely low case numbers and local quarantines for outbreaks.

The difference is pure culture: individualism vs collectivism. In China, not wearing a mask in public makes you a pariah. There’s no such social pressure here in the west.

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#354

Post by reissbaker »

timr wrote: post #42
reissbaker wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Unlike every previous virus Have we reached "herd immunity" for syphilis? Herpes? Was smallpox eradicated via "herd immunity" that wasn't reached via a vaccine? Polio? It is extremely common for viruses to not be eradicated unless there is a vaccine. Even vaccines are not guaranteed to be enough, e.g. with most influenza strains, although flu vaccines have managed to keep the death toll low enough for us to move on…

> Have we reached "herd immunity" for syphilis? Syphilis is a bacterial infection. You can get it more than once. There is no such thing as herd immunity. > Herpes? ...is transmitted via intimate, direct contact. You don't get herpes by walking into a crowded room, and there's no way to be "immune" to herpes without also being a carrier. Herd immunity isn't a relevant concept. > Was smallpox eradicated via "herd immu…

> Syphilis is a bacterial infection

"Herd immunity" applies to bacterial infections as it does to viral. All it means is that the R-value is low enough that the disease doesn't spread. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Theoretical_basi...

As an example, pertussis is a bacterial infection which most US communities have herd immunity to thanks to the pertussis vaccine.

> You can get it more than once.

There are also viral infections you can get more than once. In fact, the South African variant of COVID is likely possible to get even if you've had COVID before.

> Mixture of natural and vaccine-induced immunity.

Sure, just like nearly every virus that has been eliminated via vaccine. As, hopefully, COVID will be. Smallpox was not eradicated without a vaccine.

> We have not eradicated polio

The vast majority of the world has indeed eradicated polio via vaccination, as made clear by the fact that only three countries out of 195 still have a polio problem. The same is true for measles, rubella, and a variety of other diseases, none of which would have been eradicated from most populations without vaccines.

The OP's stance that COVID would be somehow unique amongst viruses or diseases if it needed a vaccine for eradication ignores the history of every disease for which we've mass-vaccinated against in the 20th century, as well as the vast majority of diseases that have not been and never will be eradicated by herd-immunity-reached-through-mass-infection.

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#355

Post by berdario »

acdha wrote: post #196
berdario wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Taiwanese warnings The disease originated in Wuhan, mainland China, not Taiwan. The emergency was communicated in China (as well as Taiwan): http://py.cnhubei.com/py_news/2019/1231/3290.shtml Sure, listening to any official source would've been better than what happened... But shutting down travel to/from the whole of China (since otherwise you'd have to trust every passenger to declare if they had been in Wuhan) w…

> The disease originated in Wuhan, mainland China, not Taiwan. Yes, I’m aware - try more carefully reading my comment and note that I never said otherwise. What I was referring to was Taiwan being faster to acknowledge human to human spread when the Chinese government was still in damage control mode and WHO was following their official statements saying there was no confirmation of retransmission. This happened 2 we…

The WHO really dropped the ball in early 2020, since they were also recommending against personal mask use.

That said, I think it's fair to say that some kind of response might've been faster in one place vs another... But any response at the beginning was taken out of caution (again: no healthcare workers infected, no deaths, no proof of human to human transmission)

Taiwan was obviously wise in applying caution, but did they actually publish any kind of statement regarding their beliefs for h2h transmission? (I'd be surprised if they did, since without cases there hadn't been any samples, and research on the genome of the virus couldn't start before Chinese researchers uploaded it online one January 10th)

"Based on the available information there is no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission" does not mean that there was no h2h transmission: just that there was no evidence, yet.

Everyone reading this stuff was obviously concerned, but again: if you remember, the 2nd death was only confirmed on January 15th...

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#356

Post by reissbaker »

maxerickson wrote: post #279
acdha wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it shows that herd immunity is not a given. Influenza is not only not there but will never be due to the nature of the virus being unusually prone to mutating.

That doesn't address what I said. There is an argument to be made that various strains are different viruses, and that we have herd immunity to some of them. It wouldn't make sense to invent an English name for each one, but that doesn't mean they should be treated as a single thing in all contexts. And I even stated it as ambiguous depending on how you count strains, I'm not arguing that there is only one way to loo…

Your comment seems to rest upon a claim that we do not have flu vaccines. In fact, we do, and about half of all US adults are vaccinated against the flu every year — and more than half of US children are vaccinated, since the flu is more dangerous to children than adults.

Do you have a specific strain of flu in mind when you claim that we have reached herd immunity "to various strains" without vaccination?

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#357

Post by cheph »

djrogers wrote: post #137
cheph wrote: post #34

This "pandemic" has given me permanent damage to hips, back and knees, without once having COVID, or ever meeting someone who has had COVID, or meeting someone who knows someone who has had COVID. I only know one person that knows a person who had COVID, and that person is on the other side of the planet. I would much rather have had COVID. COVID lasts some weeks, maybe months with long COVID, I have damage for the r…

> This "pandemic" has given me permanent damage to hips, back and knees, It sounds far more likely that some poor decisions in how you managed your lifestyle and/or ergonomics during the pandemic led to those conditions. Nobody forced you to work from your couch/bed/floor or whatever it was that caused your unfortunate condition. Ikea and Office Depot remained open nearly everywhere...

> Ikea and Office Depot remained open nearly everywhere...

Ikea chair caused hip damage, I stood for some time which fucked my knees up, then I bought another chair for $ 1000 but damage was already done by IKEA chair, and it did not help much, compensation I had to make for hip caused back injury, then I bought another for $ 1000, still did not help.

No tax deductions, no subsidies, no free cash, nothing.

So I am now unable to work, I am out more than $2000, and I will likely lose my job and be deported now, and I will be in constant pain for hours on the flight back and will be bedridden for the rest of my life.

I would give everything I have to be able to sit at a computer and concentrate for more than 5 minutes again.

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#358

Post by cheph »

gdubs wrote: post #76
cheph wrote: post #34

This "pandemic" has given me permanent damage to hips, back and knees, without once having COVID, or ever meeting someone who has had COVID, or meeting someone who knows someone who has had COVID. I only know one person that knows a person who had COVID, and that person is on the other side of the planet. I would much rather have had COVID. COVID lasts some weeks, maybe months with long COVID, I have damage for the r…

That’s fortunate. But if we’re playing the anecdote game: I know two relatives who died from it this year, and a young, healthy, person who had a “mild” case and now has weird blood issues, clotting, etc.

> relatives who died from it this year

Any reason why they did not stay home? Wear masks? Keep social distance? Avoid social gatherings?

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#359

Post by maxerickson »

reissbaker wrote: post #356
maxerickson wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't address what I said. There is an argument to be made that various strains are different viruses, and that we have herd immunity to some of them. It wouldn't make sense to invent an English name for each one, but that doesn't mean they should be treated as a single thing in all contexts. And I even stated it as ambiguous depending on how you count strains, I'm not arguing that there is only one way to loo…

Your comment seems to rest upon a claim that we do not have flu vaccines. In fact, we do, and about half of all US adults are vaccinated against the flu every year — and more than half of US children are vaccinated, since the flu is more dangerous to children than adults. Do you have a specific strain of flu in mind when you claim that we have reached herd immunity "to various strains" without vaccination?

How about the 1918 influenza pandemic?

There's also lots of places that don't do much flu vaccination, they don't necessarily have the same strains in circulation forever.

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#360

Post by acdha »

berdario wrote: post #355
acdha wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The disease originated in Wuhan, mainland China, not Taiwan. Yes, I’m aware - try more carefully reading my comment and note that I never said otherwise. What I was referring to was Taiwan being faster to acknowledge human to human spread when the Chinese government was still in damage control mode and WHO was following their official statements saying there was no confirmation of retransmission. This happened 2 we…

The WHO really dropped the ball in early 2020, since they were also recommending against personal mask use. That said, I think it's fair to say that some kind of response might've been faster in one place vs another... But any response at the beginning was taken out of caution (again: no healthcare workers infected, no deaths, no proof of human to human transmission) Taiwan was obviously wise in applying caution, but…

I think a lot of this comes back to the mid-level Chinese bureaucrats’ instinct for damage control. That infamous WHO tweet came in the 6 day interval between Chinese officials being briefed on the likelihood of a pandemic and publicly acknowledging it, and I haven’t heard any evidence that WHO was a party to that decision rather than simply not having better data available to them because it hadn’t been approved for public release by the Chinese government prior to January 20th.

In retrospect, it’s impressive how quickly the Taiwanese government moved based on the equivalent of a Reddit post including a screenshot from that Chinese doctor (Li Wenliang) who was jailed for spreading the news before it was officially acknowledged:

https://web.archive.org/web/20200417144920/https://focustaiw...

So, no, Taiwan didn’t put out a big press release on December 31st when they started the discussion with WHO, the China CDC, and others but they had started circulating what they knew in public health circles and being a free country they didn’t conceal what they were concerned about when they started screening travelers.

Here’s their statement on the December 31st email:

https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En/Bulletin/Detail/PAD-lbwDHeN_bLa-vi...

If you recall the origin of this thread, I was responding to someone who said “I don't think a strategy that needs every country on earth to cooperate this tightly ever had a chance to work.”. My point, again, wasn’t that Taiwan had secret knowledge of the future but that they showed how much could be done with basic public health protocols and, importantly, without requiring widespread international cooperation. Every sovereign nation could have started health screenings and quarantined travelers, but most waited too long and simpler methods weren’t going to be adequate by that point.

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