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Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

reuters.com

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Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#351

Post by ssully »

ImaCake wrote: post #192
throwaway4good wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The comment that got flag-killed linked to the wikipedia of Marek's disease. A disease that resides amongst chickens for which there exists a vaccine that prevents the disease but not the spread of the virus. And is an example of a scary story (told by antivaxxers I assume) where the introduction of a vaccine allowed the virus flourish and turn itself into a much deadlier form it otherwise would not have had.

Well COVID is already a near-worst case scenario for human civilization. Anything much more nasty would not leave any room for denialism (and presumably would burn itself out fast), anything much less nasty would have meant double the Flu hospitalisation burden and no lockdowns. It is hard to see an outcome where the vaccines make things worse, but I admit biology is full of surprises.

If I have learned anything over the last few years it's that things could always be worse, and that denialism will exist in any scenario or condition.

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#352

Post by xadhominemx »

jb775 wrote: post #333
it_robot wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ehhhh im not sure how you are reading this but the chart looks quite bad

Obviously anecdotal, but my wife is a nurse and she's been hearing some frightening things about the vaccine. Young people getting it are basically bed-ridden for days and are calling out of work...one lady couldn't lift her arm anymore and is now getting physical therapy...one guy went out to dinner with his family after getting it and had complete memory loss of the entire dinner. At what point does common sense ri…

I’m happy to feel crummy for a few days if my grandmother gets to leave her house

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#353

Post by EvgeniyZh »

runako wrote: post #332
EvgeniyZh wrote: post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you vaccinate more people, you would expect that the cases that present at a physician will be selected to be the most severe. Most of cases both before and after vaccinations are not severe. Moreover, the share of severe cases seems to stay the same or even increase ( https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general , I hope it can be google-translated or something). As I explained in other reply ( https://…

> the share of severe cases seems to stay the same or even increase I can't read the dashboard, but as I indicated this is what you would expect if you have a vaccine that broadly works at controlling the most severe forms of the disease. Vaccinated people whose infections manifest as nothing or a day or two of lethargy are not going to get counted in the statistics. > I expected change in fatality rate your expected…

One again, out of population who are responsible for 90% of deaths (and 10% of cases), more than 80% are vaccinated. Everyone else, like 25%. This got to result in disproportionate change in number of cases and number of deaths.

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#354

Post by majormajor »

jb775 wrote: post #333
it_robot wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ehhhh im not sure how you are reading this but the chart looks quite bad

Obviously anecdotal, but my wife is a nurse and she's been hearing some frightening things about the vaccine. Young people getting it are basically bed-ridden for days and are calling out of work...one lady couldn't lift her arm anymore and is now getting physical therapy...one guy went out to dinner with his family after getting it and had complete memory loss of the entire dinner. At what point does common sense ri…

This is what you say about something that looks like "good news" above:

> Serious question: How do we know any of this reporting is true?

> There's no data sources provided, no way to check follow up health (i'e. what if these people all dropped dead a week later), no way to prove the data isn't a complete fabrication, etc. Also, they make sure to use dynamic terms so we can't be sure these numbers have any valuable meaning at all (e.g. were Covid tests with drastically different cycle counts used?). Not to mention all of this reporting is praising a single vaccine producer in a billion dollar industry.

> I just read "How to Lie with Statistics" by Darrell Huff and this whole thing is the epitome of a manipulatable situation.

Combine the two and you no longer look "hey lets make sure people aren't lying to us," you just look like you have your own agenda.

So if you can lie with statistics, you can certainly lie even more with claimed anecdotes...

(The point of a vaccine is to trigger and train the immune system. The immune system revving up can cause symptoms of its own. If you get the fever of the immune system responding, without the lung damage cause you don't have the original actual virus, that's a huge win!)

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#355

Post by EvgeniyZh »

corty wrote: post #324
corty wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hm, yes, I think you are right. That is odd.

After some thinking, I've got a theory: Deaths lag behind the infections by say 4 weeks. If the infections are falling after a peak, deaths are still rising or plateauing for 4 weeks. That means the ratio deaths/infections will produce a peak that lags the infection peak by 4 weeks, because the divisor is getting smaller while the dividend is still rising. Now if you look at the numbers for Israel, there is a plateau…

If I take a look on (rolling average) of cases and deaths, peaks are more or less at the same point (about 1 week for this peak and 2 weeks for the previous one, definitely not 4 weeks apart. In particular, now b)oth number of cases and deaths are decreasing.

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#356

Post by zekrioca »

TedPetrou wrote: post #322
wittyreference wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That was a helpful link! Your comment is surprisingly true! And utterly out of context. As of today, Israel's deaths - both for the 65-and-overs and all-ages - is nearly down to its historical normal range, per your link. Going back two weeks there was a huge peak at a z-score of 9.7; and going back eight weeks it was at a statistically anomalous low, at a z-score of -2.2. I'd be tempted to point out the period of th…

You spoke too soon and I hope you issue a correction. The last week of euroMOMO isn't nearly fully updated. All countries see an enormous drop in the last week that is then pulled back up to the actual level in the following weeks of released data. Did you notice the yellow background and the "Corrected for delay in registration". Edit: Here is an animation that shows the usual correction - https://twitter.com/jburnm…

Got a "This is not available to you" page.

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#357

Post by 1337shadow »

tguvot wrote: post #347
tehjoker wrote: post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except for Palestinians of course where they refuse their legal duties as an occupying power to render medical aid. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/israel-giving-5000-vaccine-d...

Under Oslo accords Palestinian Autonomy has it's own medical system. I believe they are signed up to Covax effort

Yes, this is in the article in question, after the interview of a bunch of Palestinian Middle-East Experts - unclear to me what that title stands for exactly - they also interview a Palestinian Health Ministry official at the very end of the article:

> The Palestinian Authority has not commented on the news. But up until the latest announcement, no vaccines had reached Palestinians except those living in East Jerusalem or working in the Palestinian hospitals there.

> Palestinians expect first large vaccine shipments in March

> The Palestinian Authority expects to receive its first shipments of independently-procured vaccines in March.

> Yasser Bouzia, a Palestinian Health Ministry official, told CNBC that the PA is currently finalizing a bilateral agreement with AstraZeneca for 2 million doses of its U.K.-developed vaccine. It expects to receive another 2 million vaccine doses through COVAX, a global scheme that was established to ensure equitable vaccine access globally.

> “That will cover almost the majority of the population. And after that we will look for other sources to have another almost 1 million people to be vaccinated, because we are aiming to vaccinate almost 5.2 million people,” Bouzia said.

> Until then, infections are still spreading, despite government-imposed restrictions.

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#358

Post by xbmcuser »

thu2111 wrote: post #195
Garlef wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But the number of positive tests should have gone down considerably > "Israeli study finds 94% drop in -> SYMPTOMATIC Asymptomatic cases still spread the virus.

Asymptomatic infection doesn't seem to exist. The current status of this belief amongst even the most panicked researchers is that "more data is needed": https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4851 But a large scale study in Wuhan found no cases of asymptomatic transmission, and the same findings have been found elsewhere. NB: there is a difference between asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic. The latter sometimes can tran…

I think when people here say Asymptomatic they are probably talking about people that had a very mild symptoms maybe a bit of sniffles or a blocked nose not the scientific Asymptomatic of no symptoms at all

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#359

Post by loveistheanswer »

alkonaut wrote: post #295
adevx wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately any critical view of corona related vaccination is quickly downvoted to oblivion here. I am deeply concerned in how an experimental vaccine with very little research on long term effects is being promoted as our saviour. Vaccinating healthy young people who are statistically proven to not be vulnerable (there are exceptions which are highlighted in the media) sounds utterly insane to me. Smoking alone k…

I think this argument is misdirected. It's not that we can't accept the number of dead. Even at the top IFR of 1-2%, society could "stand" seeing that many dead. But that figure (the one you are comparing to the deaths from smoking) is with mostly functioning healthcare. It's with strict mitigations. Such mitigations aren't sustainable long term. Without those mitigations you'd be likely to have healthcare overload.…

What is preventing health care from being able to scale up?

In the US, politicians, bureaucrats, and doctors have been working together for decades to artificially limit the number of doctors.[1]

[1]https://qz.com/1676207/the-us-is-on-the-verge-of-a-devastati...

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#360

Post by saiya-jin »

Anthony-G wrote: post #214
saiya-jin wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are an expert with hand-on experience. Here decisions were done by career politicians, who are utterly clueless in any hard science, and basically often have only one skill mastered - the skill of selling themselves to population to get voted in. Hence the results.

Electronics manufacturing is very different from pharmaceutical manufacturing. Decision-makers can't just magically hand-wave the problem away and if politicians were to invest money in building up the infrastructure for all possible vaccine solutions, they would later face huge criticism for wasting public finance on all the potential vaccines that didn't pan out. I'm still hugely impressed that we have any vaccine…

We don't have vaccines thanks to politicians making mass production of vaccines a top national priority, we have them despite politicians, thanks to private companies and basic research done on universities.

Maybe your specific country handled things around covid great, but not the place I come from, not its neighbors, not the place I live in currently, and not its current neighbors (covered some 15 european states by this in east & west/south).

Money spent on vaccine infrastructure would be absolutely nothing, especially when pooled by few/many states together, compared to havoc covid is wreaking on economies and still will in incoming months, no way to avoid it. Plus the small benefit of actually saving many lives should also hold some, not only political capital.

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