In Germany we have a couple of politicians and scientists who every fortnight predict mayhem in a fortnight. No mayhem ever materialized though. We didn't have any actual Triages, ICUs are not overwhelmed. And this seems to be true for almost anywhere except for extreme shit shows like in Italy early 2020. So ... my emprical conclusion is that Corona is bad but not as dangerous as our governments want us to believe to justify their powergrabbing moves. And gathering outside is probably completely irrelevant anyway.
London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing
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Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing
#352In Germany we have a couple of politicians and scientists who every fortnight predict mayhem in a fortnight. No mayhem ever materialized though. We didn't have any actual Triages, ICUs are not overwhelmed. And this seems to be true for almost anywhere except for extreme shit shows like in Italy early 2020. So ... my emprical conclusion is that Corona is bad but not as dangerous as our governments want us to believe t…
Go talk to someone in the ICU.
The sister of one of my best friends works in ICU in Belgium. Recently with the 2nd peak, they had to pick between 2 patients because they were overwelmed in some timeframe. They let one patient die to save the other.
Don't expect these things to reach the news. In the news we always stayed well below our max capacity.
But it's not because you have 1000 free beds that you can handle 1000 patients on average, because things peak in regions and time.
Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing
#353Earlier quoted context omitted.
Can't believe after 12 months this argument is still being made. You say shutting down the economy so casually, as if it has no impact on an infectious disease spreading during a pandemic. If there hadn't been any shutdown, it would lead to a tenfold increase in infections and an even higher than tenfold increase in death as hospitals will be completely overwhelmed and unable to provide normal healthcare. But if you…
My point is more like, 10x the number of people could be dying of COVID per day than are dying right now, and I would care about 10x more than I care about all those people who are dying of heart disease, which would still be an indescribably small amount of care, even with the multiplier. I am not making the argument that it's "just a flu", but I will make the argument that it's "just death". Death is. Only a shelte…
> My point is more like, 10x the number of people could be dying of COVID per day than are dying right now, and I would care about 10x more than I care about all those people who are dying of heart disease, which would still be an indescribably small amount of care, even with the multiplier. I am not making the argument that it's "just a flu", but I will make the argument that it's "just death". Death is. Only a sheltered person is emotionally distraught because of this; and in turn, only a person who cannot handle this perspective would deem it logical to permanently damage society in order to reduce this number.
What are you talking about? 3500 died in a single day, that's a 9/11. Multiply it by tenfold like you said, and do it for a year, you're looking at 12.7 million Americans dying alone. Is that a death rate you don't care about? For comparison, the 1st world war, second world war, vietnam war, korean war, war in afghanistan, war in iraq, combined, gets you to about 0.45m casualties.
And that's in one year and one country. On a global scale it'd be insane, and again, just one year. A year in which a vaccine is rolled-out and can end the lockdown. Ending that lockdown now without having rolled-out the vaccine makes no sense.
Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing
#354In Germany we have a couple of politicians and scientists who every fortnight predict mayhem in a fortnight. No mayhem ever materialized though. We didn't have any actual Triages, ICUs are not overwhelmed. And this seems to be true for almost anywhere except for extreme shit shows like in Italy early 2020. So ... my emprical conclusion is that Corona is bad but not as dangerous as our governments want us to believe t…
When I was a little kid I asked my father once why there were large trucks driving around covering the streets with salt.
"It's to keep the roads ice free." he said.
'But dad, there's never ice one the roads here!', I responded.
To which my dad says: "mhh, I guess we might as well stop with the salt then."
----
Just because the mayhem in Germany was prevented doesn't mean it wouldn't have happened if no measures were taken. I live in the Netherlands, and we just went into full lockdown again because we're running out of hospital capacity.
Some cancer treatments and other non-Covid care have already been postponed / cancelled. Believe me when I tell you your politicians are right; it would be mayhem if nothing was done.
Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing
#355Earlier quoted context omitted.
> What’s more, do you have any reasonable figures to suggest why letting a percentage or more of the population die unnecessarily, consigning even larger numbers to long-term health problems and so forth is somehow a good choice? If I squint my eyes a bit. Reduce the burden on the pension system?
If I squint my eyes, I don't think it would even reduce the burden on the state pension system when you take into account the benefit system it is part of. Long-term disabled or ill people who are unable to work will effectively take early retirement (in some cases they can draw on their actual pension early too), and depend on state support from then on whether it's called pension or something else. The duration of…
True, but do more people end up in long term care than dead?
I’d guess so, based on what I read so far, but not sure.
Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing
#356Earlier quoted context omitted.
We are right now observing exponential spread of a virus. And we don't want to hit the natural end of exponential spread for this virus.
I've been hearing that for months. If coronavirus had a doubling time of 7 days we should be well over 1,000,000,000,000,000 cases by now. And you or nobody else knows what the natural end would be for this virus. A fast spreading variant could overall reduce deaths over the next 5 years.
Coronavirus will grow exponentially IF you let it!
That's why we're all wearing face masks, limiting social interaction and even put whole countries in a full lockdown. WE all do this to LOWER the spread of the virus.
Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing
#357Earlier quoted context omitted.
NHS is overwhelmed every winter if the hyperbolic headlines are to be believed
Just to flesh this out, the NHS could use more money, but it's worth saying that it's the only European healthcare system I'm aware of so fragile. If you ask a lot of British people they seem to think that the only alternative is the wild west found in the US, rather than the other healthcare systems in Europe. There was a good piece in the private eye a few years ago listing headlines saying the NHS is doomed tomorr…
Have you seen how much money the NHS gets? And how it sets aside for negligence?
It has money.
Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing
#358And yet we still have idiots here in the UK saying things ranging from: * coronavirus is invented as a government power grab * the government locking down is a deliberate ploy to kill small businesses * the government should just let this run its course, it’s Just A Flu TM * hospitals are actually empty (the “proof” being people recording empty waiting rooms in outpatient departments on bank holiday weekends) * coron…
A colleague made the point that we need more pictures of overflowing morgues and ICUs and (like is happening in LA) people waiting in an ambulance for 7-8 hours (and some of those people dying because of it). Just like the US government banned (discouraged?) pictures of caskets coming back from war. These images need to be on the news and on news websites 24/7.
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Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing
#359Earlier quoted context omitted.
A colleague made the point that we need more pictures of overflowing morgues and ICUs and (like is happening in LA) people waiting in an ambulance for 7-8 hours (and some of those people dying because of it). Just like the US government banned (discouraged?) pictures of caskets coming back from war. These images need to be on the news and on news websites 24/7.
There is a comment not far away above from HN user who doesn't feel safe on a street without mask with other people closer than 25 feet. Imagine what those TV pictures of yours gonna make with people like that.
"Fear is Safety"
Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing
#360Earlier quoted context omitted.
if we let the virus lives its life, maximum 2% of pop will die, 90 more % will live normally and a few percent will have covid related health issues. so we sacrifice a few percent of population for the future of the others
... or you can lock down, eradicate it and go back to normal (except for international travel). It passed that point in many places now unfortunately. I’m in Auckland, NZ and it’s a normal summer. We have also learned that NZs terrible road toll is unrelated to tourists, who we previously blamed. Have you considered that of 100 friends, family and acquaintances you’d see two die and 10 would have a painful and diffic…
Let's see how things are once winter rolls over