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Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

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Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#351

Post by dekhn »

Dylan16807 wrote: post #284
arcticfox wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that right? That seems phenomenally bad. I feel like I have normal American driving habits and I drive a standard 10k miles per year... So I'm going to kill a pedestrian every 100 years? Assuming I drive normally for ~50 years, 500k miles, I have a 50% chance to kill a pedestrian?

Did they change the number? The comment says one pedestrian death per 200 million miles right now, which is in the right ballpark and gives you a chance of 0.25%

yes I updated the number. Sorry about that.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#352

Post by tachyonbeam »

minwcnt5 wrote: post #315
tachyonbeam wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can see lots of videos filmed by Tesla car owners (not by Tesla) showcasing exactly how the Tesla full self driving beta is doing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8IQFb3JeEo It's not perfect, but it keeps better with every release. They are ahead of everyone else by a long shot.

As far as I can tell all the videos have a licensed driver in the front left seat. I don't know how anyone can call that "full self driving", let alone ahead of other players.

Erm, there's the word "beta" in the name. Of course you want to test it with someone in the driver's seat.

They're ahead of other players because they have:

1. Hundreds of thousands of cars on the streets with FSD hardware

2. More data than anyone else

3. Their own neural network accelerator chip.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#353

Post by tachyonbeam »

justapassenger wrote: post #348
tachyonbeam wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can see lots of videos filmed by Tesla car owners (not by Tesla) showcasing exactly how the Tesla full self driving beta is doing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8IQFb3JeEo It's not perfect, but it keeps better with every release. They are ahead of everyone else by a long shot.

It still fails at very basic driving activities - it’s L2 system, and is advertised as Tesla as such (driver needs to be ready to takeover at any moment). Very good L2, but nowhere close to customer ready self driving.

It's definitely bordering on Level 4 at this point. If you're claiming it's L2 then you simply have no idea what Tesla has been up to.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#354

Post by justapassenger »

tachyonbeam wrote: post #353
justapassenger wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It still fails at very basic driving activities - it’s L2 system, and is advertised as Tesla as such (driver needs to be ready to takeover at any moment). Very good L2, but nowhere close to customer ready self driving.

It's definitely bordering on Level 4 at this point. If you're claiming it's L2 then you simply have no idea what Tesla has been up to.

They’re not even at level 3 yet. Level 3 allows you to take your eyes off the road, and car will notify you if there’s something it cannot deal with, in advance. Tesla FSD will kill you if you do that.

As I said, it’s very impressive for level 2. But just because it can do more stuff that any other publicly available l2 system, it doesn’t make it self driving system. And Tesla knows that. They’ve quietly walked back most of their claims. They used to advertise it as level 5, that you can go to sleep. Now they advertise FSD as system that requires full human attention, and only missing thing is auto steer on city streets.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#355

Post by mrguyorama »

letitbeirie wrote: post #264
lr4444lr wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the loss of agency to machines, not the raw numbers that scares people. Why do you think so many people are unduly spooked after airline accidents due to mechanical or computer error?

Which is ironic, because this is the kind of automation they've been building into planes for years and consequently air travel is safer than it's ever been . 737 Max fiasco notwithstanding - it's worth mentioning that MCAS had nothing to do with flying the plane, only making it feel more like the 737NG to its human pilots

How much machine learning and black box decision making does autopilot in a plane do?

My understanding is none, or nearly none. VNAV follows GPS waypoints with well described, manually designed behaviors for things like climb rate, bank angle, etc.

Autoland isn't machine learning either, and has such a large list of requirements to be allowed that it's basically like designing a self driving computer for a train.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#356

Post by justapassenger »

tachyonbeam wrote: post #352
minwcnt5 wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I can tell all the videos have a licensed driver in the front left seat. I don't know how anyone can call that "full self driving", let alone ahead of other players.

Erm, there's the word "beta" in the name. Of course you want to test it with someone in the driver's seat. They're ahead of other players because they have: 1. Hundreds of thousands of cars on the streets with FSD hardware 2. More data than anyone else 3. Their own neural network accelerator chip.

Given this is tech site - can you please tell me there Tesla is storing this data? Video is very expensive to store and process, so if they have this massive data advantage, where are their data centers?

I’d like to remind you as well that Google, aka waymo, had their nn accelerators for half a decade already.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#357

Post by lhorie »

Dylan16807 wrote: post #267
lhorie wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What currency are you using? In USD, the cheapest item on the menu that I can find (apple slices) goes for $0.57. A big mac combo goes for around $10, while a subway footlong goes for about $7.

$10 is also a pretty wrong number for "hamburger". Looking at this ordering form, I see $2.49 for a mcdouble and only $1.39 for a basic hamburger. And the mcchicken is $1.19 (Though wow, mcdouble was half that 2-3 years ago. Big mac hasn't really changed.)

I do recall an article from a few years ago about how the basic McD burger was arguably the most bang-for-your-buck in terms of calories per cent, and I agree it's hard to beat (though not impossible, e.g. the costco hotdog combo costs a measly $1.50 and packs ~3-4 times more calories)

But yeah, a lot of the McD classics and new offerings that one might purchase for a "normal" meal are actually quite expensive nowadays. On a side note (pun intended), I suspect that there are some pricing structure shenanigans going on, because fries are clearly marked up way more than burgers.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#358

Post by bobthepanda »

papito wrote: post #345
bobthepanda wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not the reason aerospace is essentially a duopoly. The real reason is that every single aircraft development program in recent history has been late and over budget, and now aircraft development is something that costs an eyewatering billions of dollars, if not in the tens of billions of dollars at this point. Bombardier sold, Embraer tried to, and Japan, Russia, and China have all mostly sputtered on despite…

I don't know - how many tens of billions did VCs put into Uber or WeWork, when these companies are not making a dime... It seems like that's not a factor. Perhaps they find it boring, or perhaps the technical risk is just too high. It's all or nothing. You can BS your way through a classic tech startup as Adam Neumann did. It's harder with something that is a single flagship product that has to drive (Nikola) or fly…

They may not be making a profit, but they are booking some revenues, in the sense that people are paying money, right now, for rideshares.

This is not really a dynamic in aircraft programs, where delivery of aircraft takes years.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#359

Post by gotostatement »

jfoster wrote: post #312
gotostatement wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but those dont happen at 60+ miles per hour

Okay, let's use another example: lifts don't move until the doors are closed. If the lift thinks the doors are open, it won't move. If it did, it would be an out of control situation just as quickly as a car misbehaving at 60 mph is. The expectation is that autonomous cars must be cautious.

my point is when we develop expectations and mental models of how machines work, we can use those to adapt and feel safe and in control. but that's less possible when the machine is typically moving at 60 mph and the mistake can happen without warning

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#360

Post by pmiller2 »

argonaut wrote: post #260
pmiller2 wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not convinced. Do you have evidence that "more efficient use of time from app-based routing" actually results in drivers making more money?

Medallions alone should be enough to make a difference. The efficient use of time probably has much less of an effect on earnings, if true.

I'm also not terribly convinced of this. Medallions are a one-time fixed cost. This should have little to nothing to do with long term prices, especially given that the prices of medallions have gone down significantly.
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