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536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

sciencemag.org

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Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#351

Post by perl4ever »

ci5er wrote: post #252
perl4ever wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I'm seeing in the NY state capital is that the stuff that was out of stock early on like toilet paper, paper towels, kleenex, flour, etc. returned some times ago, but seems to still be rationed to one or two per person per day. I don't find this to be a hardship, but I don't shop for a big family. However, I just saw packets of yeast for sale again. That was the last thing that I had trouble finding. But take my…

Thanks. Makes sense. I never drive or shop, so I am kind of used to people bringing me off-brand stuff. And I buy in bulk, so I am already set regardless, but I am told by friends that the shelves are full (sometimes they even send pictures!) Maybe we are lucky that so much is semi-locally sourced.

New locally or regionally sourced products have been appearing on shelves here; I think that the stores are adjusting.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#352

Post by htfu »

vxNsr wrote: post #308
pmiller2 wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm actually surprised there wasn't more supply chain disruption. Cleaning supplies, meat, TP, cold medicine (initially), disinfectants of any sort, canned goods, rice, dry beans, baking supplies, thermometers, masks, and gloves are the major things I noticed had gone "missing." My girlfriend and I could have certainly survived by modifying our diet and, as I mentioned, possibly buying a bidet. But, we are both fortu…

> This was nowhere near Soviet bread line status. In the Soviet Union, perhaps you had to stand in line for bread, but, at least there was bread. Please stop. this is outright demonstrably false by every account. It's a nice reminder that someone with a lot of intelligence and dare I say talent in one area can be so wrong in another. But seriously dude, please educate yourself on the history of socialism and how it's…

> to Colombia to Sweden

You appear to be somehow even more uninformed than they are. In no sense of the word has socialism been "tried" in these countries. FARC were Marxist guerillas and never came close to seizing power, and social democrats aren't democratic socialists aren't DDR-style socialists.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#353

Post by mikhailfranco »

runarberg wrote: post #148

Two things strike me as odd in this article: > 536 Icelandic volcano erupts, dimming the sun for 18 months I’m not aware of any evidence that the 536 eruption happened in Iceland. Ash has been found in both Antarctica and Greenland indicating that the eruption was probably much closer to the equator[1]. > 541–543 The “Justinian” bubonic plague spreads through the Mediterranean, killing 35%–55% of the population and s…

Yes, the Icelandic volcanoes are capable of this level of atmospheric disruption,

but there is not yet a smoking hill in Iceland identified for these events:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_weather_events_of_535%...

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#354

Post by pbhjpbhj »

pfdietz wrote: post #348
pbhjpbhj wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear is still the answer to "what about baseline demand". Battery storage is possibly going to fit in there, but it doesn't do it yet. Tidal, ground source, gravity/momentum/compression/latent-heat storage solutions, some of these might do. I think we need at least one more cycle of Nuclear power plants. Perhaps then we'll have workable fission.

Nuclear might have been an answer ten years ago, but one cannot make the case today that it is the answer. The raw economics have pushed nuclear out of the picture now.

Go on, so what do you propose for baseline power - more gas fired power stations?

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#355

Post by runarberg »

mikhailfranco wrote: post #353
runarberg wrote: post #148

Two things strike me as odd in this article: > 536 Icelandic volcano erupts, dimming the sun for 18 months I’m not aware of any evidence that the 536 eruption happened in Iceland. Ash has been found in both Antarctica and Greenland indicating that the eruption was probably much closer to the equator[1]. > 541–543 The “Justinian” bubonic plague spreads through the Mediterranean, killing 35%–55% of the population and s…

Yes, the Icelandic volcanoes are capable of this level of atmospheric disruption, but there is not yet a smoking hill in Iceland identified for these events: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_weather_events_of_535%...

It is not that long ago, and the land is really well studied. I think I trust the Icelandic volcanologists over the middle age historian regarding the source of the 535 eruption. This size eruption would definitely leave sizeable evidence that wouldn’t be that hard to find given the barren landscape of Iceland.

See compare this to the 1783 Laki eruption which caused similar weather events. Unlike 535, the weather events from the Laki eruption were limited to the Northern hemisphere.

It is much more likely that this eruption happened close to the equator, where evidence erode much quicker and the ash has an easier time effecting the two hemispheres.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#356

Post by AtlasBarfed »

rabidrat wrote: post #218
koheripbal wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. Personally, I think the steady proliferation of nuclear weapons is going to snap at some point with some nut using them. God help us all. Humans are stupid. We think that because we survived the Cold War, that it won't happen. ...but if you read the history - it very nearly did happen a couple of times. ...it's only a matter of time.

OTOH nuclear weapons decay and we're rapidly losing the tacit knowledge required to make new ones (at least here in the US). If the Test Ban stays in place and is enforced, it may only be a few more decades until we as a species would have to do another Manhattan Project to rebuild them. This takes about 4 years of concerted effort within military and industry, and the only shortcut is the tacit knowledge that nuclea…

We have the ability to model nuclear explosions and desings in supercomputer simulations. I don't think it would be difficult to re-engineer nuclear warheads, even if all the original engineers are dead.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#357

Post by bhaak »

bleuarff wrote: post #341
bhaak wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can take that even further as the sewage systems in Europe didn't recover until the 18th/19th century.

Interesting, can you elaborate?

The water supply and sanitation in Europe took a deep dive where the Roman infrastructure broke down.

In many places it was rather recently that sanitation was on par or better than in Rome (but of course, not everywhere in the Roman Empire the standards were as high as in the capital).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanitation_in_ancient_Rome

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#358

Post by rurban »

sizzle wrote: post #232
Nasrudith wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not too certain of the logic of the arguement - namely because fossil fuels are actually pretty damn advanced in terms of "actual technology and societal infastructure to access and exploit them". We already went through this long ago with surface deposits of copper ore as well essentially millenia ago. Effectively the time when it is useful is "when we don't have cheaper alternatives yet". We still should striv…

What are the consequences of fracking?

Poisoning the groundwater, besides the earthquakes now and then. But who needs clean water?

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#359

Post by throwaway4666 »

vxNsr wrote: post #343
throwaway4666 wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Were you educated in the American school system by any chance?

An appeal to authority how fallacious of you. In fact I’m getting this from the source. My own family lived there for most of their lives. Only left in the late 80s.

Well of course if you're an emigrant you're going to have a poor opinion of it. Meanwhile the majority of Russians have a positive view of Lenin.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#360

Post by pbhjpbhj »

iso1631 wrote: post #328
pbhjpbhj wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear is still the answer to "what about baseline demand". Battery storage is possibly going to fit in there, but it doesn't do it yet. Tidal, ground source, gravity/momentum/compression/latent-heat storage solutions, some of these might do. I think we need at least one more cycle of Nuclear power plants. Perhaps then we'll have workable fission.

Possibly, but it seems exceptionally expensive and slow for what you get. Sods law will say if you don't invest in nuclear, you'll be using a lot more CCGT because storage or large-geography interconnects won't be there But if you do invest, you'll end up being stuck with something costing far more than commodity renewables+storage We have "workable fission" now, it's just very expensive. Workable fusion is always a…

Sorry, yes, obvious typo fission -> fusion.

It does feel like Tokamak will never arrive. An acquaintance did their doctorate last year on modelling some aspect of the containment; they didn't seem hopeful.

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